Yes, here we are again. It seems like we just saw each other. Another week of the NFL season has come and gone just like that. If you started 0-2 like I did with one team, did you win last week and now feel a little better about things? I sure do. My team finally played up to its potential, and I had a comfortable win. More importantly, the schedule gods didn’t have me running head-on into a matchup against a Dolphins player again. I’m thankful for that. For those who did…I’m sorry!
But that is the past, and this is a new week. Let’s focus on what’s immediately in front of us in the weeks forward. Warning, though, some of my plays here may make you feel uncomfortable. I’m not going after the low-hanging fruit. No, we want to find the plays that help answer some of your harder fantasy roster questions. Perhaps you’ll even see something useful here for your DFS plays. Above all, I wish you all good luck this week and get that victory.
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Here are my “Five Things to Know” for Week 4:
1.
After being on the wrong side of a 70-20 lambasting in South Florida last weekend, it’s no surprise that the Denver Broncos defense is currently giving up the most fantasy points to QBs. Tua Tagovailoa delivered over 30 points to his owners in that game. Previously, Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Howell provided some of their best performances of the year against the Broncos in Week 1 and 2, respectively.
So, who’s next? Believe it or not, it’s one of the most polarizing QBs to fantasy owners in the young season. Yes, Justin Fields and the winless Chicago Bears host the vulnerable Broncos defense. Understandably, many of Fields’ fantasy owners are ready to or have already, cut bait here. If you’re still on the fence about this decision, I’m here to tell you to wait one more week before making that final decision.
I’m not a Justin Fields homer, nor am I here to give you a “told you so” play and hope it works out. What I’m here to do is give a quick history lesson. Less than 1 short year ago, we debated whether Fields was an NFL-caliber QB. He opened the season with five straight sub-20-point games. He was dreadful (sound familiar?). We also noted his schedule coincided with some of the best defense vs. QBs at that time. Once the schedule flipped and he faced some of the weaker defenses, he flourished, including back-2-back games for over 40 points (against the bottom four defenses).
Fast forward 11 ½ months, and we’re at another inflection point in the young career of Mr. Fields. The next 5 Bears games are against defenses in the bottom half of the league versus QBs. Again, sound familiar? So, before you cut the strings here, let’s see if facing the highest-scoring (allowed) defense reminds him how to play winning football – both for the Bears and our fantasy teams. You’ve gone this far. Go one more week.
Start: Justin Fields
2.
On the opposite side of the coin, I’m suggesting you park the Gus Bus this weekend against the brick wall that is the Cleveland Browns’ defense. The Browns are second only to the Eagles in allowing the least amount of fantasy points to RBs. Here’s how their opponent’s primary RBs have fared against the Browns this season:
Gus Edwards has performed admirably after the devastating injury to J.K. Dobbins in Week 1, but he’s no Mixon, Harris or Henry. In his two starts, Edwards is averaging 5.4 yards per attempt and red zone rushes in each. There’s also the chance, although small, that Justice Hill, despite his foot injury that caused him to miss Week 3 plays. Whether Hill plays or not, I’m afraid the steep uphill battle he faces in Cleveland will be a reality check for those of us who took Gus in our “zero RB” drafts.
Sit this week: Gus Edwards
Pivot to: Javonte Williams or Alexander Mattison
If you’re new to @RazzballNFL, I suggest you spend some time with our free tools to help break down WRs and TEs. We call them the “Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed” tool, the “Slot vs. Wide Rest of Season Strength of Schedules” tool, the “Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide” tool, and the “Player Usage Data” tool. Like last week, I’ll be pulling primarily from these tools for the next few discussion recommendations.
3.
Going back to the Ravens – Browns game, we find one of the better slot matchups of this week. The Ravens give up the 3rd most points per game (16.9) to slot receivers. Running from the slot at just over 70% of his 150 plays so far this season, Elijah Moore looks to be the primary beneficiary. This is not just to say, “play Elijah Moore because he lines up in the slot…” No, I’m saying you consider playing Moore because he’s seeing a continued uptick in his targets (nine targets last week)…coupled with the favorable slot matchup.
Start: Elijah Moore
Also consider: Jakobi Meyers
4.
We all know the formula for beating the Titans is through the air, not on the ground. In fact, we find that the Titans give up the most fantasy points to wideouts, period. After the beating put on them by the Browns last week, the Titans could use a “get-right” game to regain some momentum. Unfortunately, one of the most dangerous offenses over the past couple of seasons, one that finally showed positive signs of life on Monday Night Football, is coming to town.
Ja’Marr Chase put up 141 yards on 12 receptions against the Rams. These numbers easily surpass the totals from the first two games combined. Fantasy owners who kept their faith were rewarded with over 26 PPR points. Not that there really should have been a question, but Chase (55% plays from the wideout position) is a fantasy must-start this week. That’s the easy one.
I’m here to tell you Tee Higgins is also a strong start. Higgins has been on a bit of a roller coaster with a three-week output of 0, 28.9, & 4.1. If you believe in trends, he’s due for a big game against the soft Titans secondary this week. Despite the output, Higgins is still getting plenty of targets per game (8, 12, & 8, respectively). He is also running plays from the wideout position 75% of the time. So…high targets + high wideout route percentage + worst defense versus wideouts = big fantasy day. Take it to the bank.
Must start: Ja’Marr Chase
Strong start: Tee Higgins
Others to consider: Nico Collins & DJ Chark
5.
To finish out my five things to know, I’ll visit the wasteland that has enveloped the TE position.
My TE play this week:
- runs half of his routes from the slot position
- was drafted as one of the top 5 TEs in all formats
- currently the 8th ranked TE in PPR leagues
- faces the team surrendering the most fantasy points per game from the slot position
My TE play is Darren Waller.
I know what you’re saying. Waller goes as Daniel Jones goes. That’s true. Jones has been wildly inconsistent this year, with outputs of 9.5, 36.0, and 7.4. In Week 2 versus the Cardinals, Jones went for 321 yards and 2 TDs, completing passes at > 70%. It’s no coincidence that Waller also enjoyed his best game of the year in Arizona, including his highest targets, highest receptions and highest yard totals of the year.
The Seahawks are bottom third against QBs and give up the most fantasy points per game from the slot position. To me, that translates to mean Darren Waller as the primary beneficiary.
Strong Start: Darren Waller
There you have it, folks, my five things to know for Week 4. Good luck in all your season-long and DFS action this weekend.
Don’t forget to subscribe and tune into the one-and-only @RazzballNFL Start/Sit show on Sunday mornings. Right up to game time, @BobbyLamarco, @SkyGuasco, @Stiles08, and I will be answering all your fantasy football questions as you prepare for the start of your Championship season. Don’t miss it.
Look for my articles right here each week, and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret.
Until next time, my friends.
