Here we go again—another bye week with significant relevance to us fantasy managers. The 49ers, Lions, Jaguars and Broncos are on bye. So, that means no CMC, no Jahmyr Gibbs, no Travis Etienne and no Javonte Williams. Oh, and there are other positions affected too. You get the picture. We have some work to do. That’s where I come in.
As I’ve done for the previous 8 weeks, here are some key things to know for this week’s matchups.
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1.
Versus the Commanders’ defense, QBs are throwing for over 270 yards and scoring more TDs than anyone else in the league (2.25 per game). Add to the fact that Washington traded away their two best pass rushers, Mac Jones should have plenty of time to spread the ball around to Rhamondre Stevenson (hint hint, Bill), DeVante Parker, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Hunter Henry.
QBs are attempting the 2nd most passes at 40 per game against the vulnerable Eagles defense, 70% of which go to WRs. With that 70%, the Eagles also have the dubious honor of being in the bottom five in the league for Slot PPG allowed and Wideout PPG allowed. To counter, Dak Prescott has averaged 30 fantasy PPG over the past two games with only 30 passing attempts. Imagine what he and his WRs could put up with 10 more attempts?
The Bears’ defense is allowing the 3rd most fantasy PPG to QBs. That’s good news for Derek Carr as he looks to continue his string of 300+ yard passing and 20+ fantasy PPG.
The Chargers travel across the country to face the Jets on MNF. The Chargers D is allowing the most QB yards (321) per game and forcing less than 1 INT per game. That bodes well for Zach Wilson coming off one of his best efforts of the season. Wilson has also been good with the pigskin, only throwing 1 INT in the last 5 games. If you’re inclined to wait until Monday Night for your QB play, he’s not a bad fallback plan.
2.
The Panthers allow over 5 yards per carry and the most RB TDs (1.57) per game. If that weren’t enough to persuade you to consider playing BOTH Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, despite their timeshare, the Razzball NFL Adjusted Line Yards Matchup Metric scores the Colts offense as the 2nd best matchup of the week.
The Chargers and Jets are allowing the 1st and 3rd most RB targets (9.00 and 8.57) per game, respectively. Austin Ekeler has logged 16 targets over the past 3 games (8 last week), and Breece Hall has 17 over the same period (9 last week). No wonder both had > 20 fantasy PPG last week. The prospects of extending those streaks look promising on MNF.
Lastly, for RBs, the Raiders are allowing over 120 yards per game on the ground. Interim Coach, Antonio Pierce, will need to address that at some point, but all systems look good for Saquon Barkley this week. Especially after showing he can handle an elevated workload (36 carries last week).
3.
The Eagles defense allows the most fantasy PPG to WRs (43.9). Our Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed metric further shows the Eagles give up the 4th most to Slot WRs and 5th most to Wideouts. Wow, that’s not a trend you want to see for a Super Bowl contender. You’re starting CeeDee Lamb with tremendous confidence this week. I’d consider Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks in some of your deeper leagues as well (Jake Ferguson, too).
The Commanders’ defense is close behind the Eagles in fantasy PPG to WRs (43.1). Scoring against the Commanders falls along the line of Wideout: Slot at 2:1. DeVante Parker, still recovering from a concussion, would be the primary beneficiary here if he plays. Other Patriots options include JuJu Smith-Schuster and even Demario Douglas (in very deep leagues). NOTE: I do like Rhamondre Stevenson to get more targets this week, too (averaging 5 targets per week).
The rest of the top 5 defenses allowing fantasy PPG to WRs:
- Dolphins defense (40.5) vs Chiefs:
- Wide (66%) – Marquez Valdes-Scantling
- Slot (34%) – Rashee Rice
- Vikings defense (40.3) vs Falcons:
- Wide (57%) – Drake London
- Slot (43%) – Mack Hollins
- Buccaneers defense (38.9) vs Texans:
- Wide (42%) – Nico Collins & Tank Dell
- Slot (58%) – Robert Woods
4.
Dalton Kincaid really arrived for us fantasy owners last Thursday night with a TD and his highest score (PPR) of the season. He and the Bills draw the most favorable TE matchup this week against the Bengals. The Bengals D is giving up almost 10 fantasy PPG to TEs, most in the NFL. This includes the 5th most receptions (almost 6 per game), 4th most yards (> 64 yards per game), and 2nd most TDs (0.57 per game). All this adds up to another confident fantasy start for Kincaid.
If you recall from my article last week, I recommended starting TEs against the Jets, noting opposing TEs have a higher probability of scoring a TD. This week, Gerald Everett gets that shot to make me look like I know what I’m talking about. For those wondering about his injury designation, he logged a full practice Thursday, so all looks good here. Go, Gerald!
5.
I’ve been fairly optimistic throughout this article, so I’d be remiss to share a few fade candidates. These aren’t necessarily “Sits” but just be cautious. Here goes:
- Ground yards have been tough to come by for the Buccaneers and Rachaad White. White has only surpassed 60 rushing yards once on the season. The matchup versus the Texans’ defense ranks as one of the worst in our Adjusted Line Yards Matchup Metric. If you are starting White, you’re hoping he continues to stay busy in the passing game.
- The same goes for Tony Pollard. While the Eagles’ defense is one of the friendliest to receivers, they are one of the best against the run. Perhaps Dak will remember Pollard has good hands.
- The Colts’ defense is one of the best at limiting fantasy points to Slot WRs. You guessed it, they match up with one of the best Slot WRs in Adam Thielen. Whichever side wins this battle may ultimately decide the game.
- There’s a similar situation when looking at outside WRs. The Seahawk defense is one of the best at limiting fantasy points to Wideouts. Although all 3 top Ravens WRs (Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham) run from the Wideout spot, this looks to primarily affect Bateman and Beckham (both Wide % > 70%, with Flowers Wide% only 44%).
There you go, another week of insights in the books. Best of luck in your season-long or DFS action, and don’t forget…
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Until next time, my friends.
