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Nic Romero

NFC West Fantasy Preview: Part II

August 1, 2019 | 2019 Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Strategy |

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Today I will cover the second half of the NFC West. Following this, there is just one division left. The finish line is right around the corner. Now it’s time to talk about the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks.

Completed Previews: AFC North – NFC North – NFC East Part I – NFC East Part II – AFC East Part I – AFC East Part II – NFC South Part I – NFC South Part II – AFC South Part I  – AFC South Part II – NFC West Part I

2019 projections referenced below are based on razzball.com 2019 projections managed and updated by our very own @RudyGamble . ADP, and strength of schedule referenced below are based on fantasypros.com consensus data.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers

QB Jimmy Garoppollo

2018 Recap

  • Only started 3 games (missed rest of season with torn ACL)
  • 5 TDs / 3 INTs
  • 29.7 pass attempts per game
  • 16.0 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

  • Strength of Schedule at-a-glance
    • 9th overall easiest strength of schedule for QBs
    • Eased in to start season (weeks 1-5), no matchup against a top 10 hardest fantasy defense. Faces the #5 and #1 easiest fantasy defenses for opposing QBs in week 1 and 2
    • Attractive fantasy playoff run (weeks 14-15), faces the #3 and #4 easiest fantasy defenses wks 14 & 15

Jimmy G is expected to be a full go for the start of the 2019 NFL season. The 49ers front office has done their part surrounding Jimmy with talented players at the skill positions. Kyle Shanahan is consistent in producing fantasy friendly offenses. Heck, he still had fantasy relevant players last season after playing the majority of the season with 2nd and 3rd string quarterbacks. Not a huge sample size, but if you project the last 5 games of 2017 and the first 3 games of 2018, here are Jimmys stat lines- 282.5 passing yards per game, 33.1 pass attempts per game, and 1.4 passing TDs per game. Projected over a course of 16 games, 4,520 yds, 529.6 pass attempts, and 22.4 TDs. This would have been good for QB13 in pass attempts, and QB6 in passing yards in 2018. Rudy has Jimmy finishing 2019 with 523 total pass attempts and 4,038 passing yards. Jimmy provides value at his current ADP price, 144 Overall / QB21, going in the 12th round. It’s tough to project Jimmy to finish in the top 12 at the position but in two-QB, super-flex, or best ball leagues he is worth a roster spot. With the ample talent at the skill position and a fantasy friendly head coach, I can see Jimmy finish above his projected QB23 finish. Let’s check on that knee…

https://twitter.com/fourth_nine/status/1155314451945361412

RB Tevin Coleman

2018 Recap

  • RB18
  • Played all 16 games
  • Beat weekly projections 5 out of 16 games
  • 2 games over 100 yards rushing
  • 2.75 targets per game and 2 receptions per game
  • 4.8 yards per carry and 8.6 yards per reception
  • 12.1 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

  • Strength of Schedule at-a-glance
    • 3rd overall easiest strength of schedule for RBs
    • Only 4 matchups, the whole season, against fantasy defenses ranked among the top 10 hardest for opposing RBs

Tevin had the lead starting duties served on a platter to him last season in Atlanta after head honcho, Devonta Freeman, went down for the season with a knee injury. Unfortunately, he did not live up to the expectations many placed on him. Atlanta was busy passing the ball. Matt Ryan completed 608 pass attempts, 3rd most in the NFL last season. Tevin still finished as an RB2 and posted decent numbers, averaging an impressive 4.8 yards per carry. He has not dipped below 4.0 yards per carry since entering the league (2015). Now, he is reunited with his former offensive coordinator and a clear shot for the #1 role in Shanahan’s offense. The waivers were hot on SF RBs down the stretch in 2018 because of weekly injuries to this backfield. The waiver adds were hot not because they were loaded with RB talent, but the fact they were in Shanahan’s offensive scheme. It got to the point last season where Kyle Juszcyk was a top waiver wire add. Tevin Coleman is an interesting mid-late round RB that has RB2 upside. He is going 70th OVR / RB30, at the end of the 5th round.

WR Dante Pettis

2018 Recap

  • WR70
  • Played 8 games, suited up for 12 (missed multiple games with a knee injury) 
  • 1 game over 100 yds receiving
  • 6.2 targets per game and 4 receptions per game (weeks 10-16)
  • 61.8 yards per game and .67 TD rate (weeks 10-16)
  • 10.15 fantasy points per game (weeks 10-16)

2019 Outlook

  • Strength of Schedule at-a-glance
    • 3rd easiest overall strength of schedule for RBs
    • Kush matchups all season, faces only one fantasy defense ranked in the top 10 hardest

Dante Pettis was able to produce WR2 numbers from weeks 10-16 with 3rd string QB, Nick Mullens, tossing the rock. Pettis heads in to the season as the presumed #1 wideout in Shanahans offense that is returning Jimmy G under center. Pettis is right in that group with a lot of other receivers in that 6-8th round range- Christian Kirk, Allen Robinson, Robby Anderson, Corey Davis, and Will Fuller. I really like a lot of guys in that range, both Kirk and Pettis have a lot of upside in what are consider “sexy” fantasy offenses heading in to the season. A-Rob and Corey Davis are the safer picks. Rudy has Pettis finishing well behind most of the guys listed, projecting a WR43 finish. The 49ers brought in rookie Deebo Samuel that some are projecting as a starter, and return speedster Marquis Goodwin. George Kittle projects to be the highest targeted pass catcher in this offense, making Pettis really the 2nd receiving option at best. WR2 is his ceiling and we are getting charged that price. His current price is 76th OVR / WR32, early in the 6th round. I’ll wait to see if I can get him closer to the 7-8th round.

TE George Kittle

2018 Recap

  • TE3
  • Started all 16 games
  • Beat weekly projections 8 out 16 games
  • 4 games over 100 yards receiving (one game over 200 yds)
  • 8.4 targets per game and TE3 in total targets (135)
  • 5.5 receptions per game and TE3 in total receptions (88)
  • 15.6 yards per reception and .31 TD rate
  • 16.2 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

  • Strength of Schedule at-a-glance
    • 19th easiest overall strength of schedule for TEs
    • Sweet first half of the season (weeks 1-8),  4 out of 7 matchups against the top 10 easiest fantasy defenses. Only one matchup against a fantasy defense ranked amongst the top 10 hardest

I think we are at the point where our significant others and ‘Jake’ in the office know about George Kittle. The fact he put his 2018 numbers up with 2nd and 3rd string quarterbacks speaks volume to the talent level of George. He is a monster after the catch and boasts a Tight End best, 15.6 yards per reception (among tight ends with 50+ catches). His 135 targets ranks 13th when compared to WR targets. There is a sharp cliff at the TE position. The difference between TE2 – TE4 was 58 points, from TE3-TE4 a 36 point differential, and from TE1-TE5 a 101 point differential. His current ADP is 30th OVR / TE3, towards the middle of the 3rd round. Razzball has Kittle projected to finish as the TE2 and with 237.9 total fantasy points. Finishing only 10 points behind T.Y. Hilton (ADP29), and ~37 points ahead of Amari Cooper (ADP 31). Kittle, Kelce, and Ertz are the only TEs I’m interested in grabbing the first 4 rounds. If this video doesn’t convince you then I don’t know what will…

SF Quick Hits: Deebo Samuel is a popular late round rookie flyer that has gained a lot of love over the summer. I’m definitely getting my shares of him where I can, going 204 OVR / WR 67 in the 17 round. Samuel is practically free and a cheap entry fee in to this 49ers offense. Marquise Goodwin is a poor-er man’s, poor man DeSean Jackson and John Brown…can it get any more poor? If I’m taking a pass catcher in SF other than Pettis and Kittle, I rather gamble on the upside of exciting rookie WR Deebo Samuel than Goodwin. Both Samuel and Goodwin are projected to finish outside of the top 80 at the WR position. After Tevin Coleman, the questions become who is the handcuff or 2nd RB in this system? Shanahan’s offense has a track record of supporting two backs, i.e. Atlanta Falcons with Freeman/Coleman. The decision is between Matt Breida and Jerrick Mckinnon, which presents more questions than answers. McKinnon missed all of 2018 with a torn ACL and has started the 2019 on the pup list, still recovering from his knee. Breida brings along his history of playing through injury over the course of 2018. I believe Breida will still be utilized in the offense regardless if  Coleman or McKinnon are starting. McKinnon only holds value if Coleman were to go down injured. We’ll need to see if McKinnon can get up to speed for any pre-season games to make a final decision on these two. Rudy has Breida finishing as RB39 and McKinnon as RB60. Breida is roughly 50 picks cheaper than McKinnon.

Time for some Niners CHVs (Camp Hyphy Vids)….

Deebo Samuel catching one on Richard Sherman

Best rookie route runner? what do you think?

https://twitter.com/NinerAlex/status/1153524739320754176

 

Seattle Seahawks

QB Russell Wilson

2018 Recap

  • QB9
  • Started all 16 games
  • Beat weekly projections 10 out of 16 games
  • 35 TDs / 9 Turnovers (2 FUM)
  • 376 rushing yards (QB6) on 67 rushing attempts (QB7)
  • 427 pass attempts (QB20)
  • 18.7 fantasy point per game

2019 Outlook

  • Strength of Schedule at-a-glance
    • 6th easiest overall strength of schedule for QBs
    • Attractive start to the season (weeks 1-3), faces the #1, #11 and #3 easiest fantasy defenses for opposing QBs in week 1, 2, and 3.
    • Tougher fantasy playoff run (weeks 13-16), only one matchup against a top 10 easiest fantasy defense (wk 15). 3 out of 4 matchups are against fantasy defense ranked among the top 10 hardest against QBs

As the Fantasy Guru, John Hanson, would say..Russel Wilson is a BALLER, on the field. Unfortunately, he finds himself in a run first and run heavy offense. His 280 completions in 2018 were only good for QB20. To my surprise, the Seahawks actually ranked t-4th in overall offensive explosive rate, highlighted by our boy Zach in his Targeting Explosive Offenses article. This is probably due to the fact defenses are playing the run first, against this rushing offense, which opens up big plays in the play action game. This is a key component to the Rams offense with Goff and Gurley. The Seahawks added big bodied receiver, D.K. Metcalf through the draft, which will present a huge bullseye for Wilson in the RedZone. Surprisingly, Wilson finished with 0 rushing TDs in 2018. Not that Wilson is a ‘yuuuge’ rushing quarterback, but still a surprise to see a zero after all of the plays/drives he keeps alive with his feet. Rudy has Wilson projected with 2.4 TDs this season. If the Hawks passed more I would be higher on Wilson. Rudy has Wilson falling out of the QB1 range with a projected QB13 finish. He is going 85th OVR / QB8. If he is still sitting on the board in the 11th round of my current best ball, I’m okay with taking him there. 

RB Chris Carson

2018 Recap

  • RB15
  • Played 14 games (missed 2 due to a hip issue)
  • Beat weekly projections 9 out of 14 games
  • 6 games over 100 yards rushing
  • 1.7 targets per game
  • 4.7 yards per carry and .65 TD rate
  • 14.4 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

  • Strength of schedule at-a-glance
    • 6th easiest overall strength of schedule for RBs
    • Up and down start to the season (weeks 1-4), faces the #2 (wk1) and #1 (wk4) easiest fantasy defenses. Matchups against the #9 (wk2) and #3 (wk3) hardest fantasy defense

If I did a ‘Blind Resume’ for Carson it would look like the following, 1,151 rushing yards (rb5), 246 attempts (RB7), and an offense with the highest rushing rate in the NFL. You would expect this back to be a top 10 RB off the board and taken no later than the 2 round. Chris Carson is criminally undervalued at 57 OVR/ RB26, going in the middle of the 4th round. I understand the presence of Penny scares some but Carson has been effective in every game he’s played. He averaged a healthy 4.2 yards per game in 2017 and 4.7 in 2019. Carson is the type of value I don’t like talking up too much because I don’t want to squeeze all of the value out of him by driving his ADP up. Rudy projects Carson finishing as RB19, and the current ADP RB19 is going 20 picks ahead of Carson in the 3rd round. The Seahawks 53% rushing rate is 4 points higher than the #2 offense on that list. Also, Mike Davis moved on to Chicago and vacates 112 carries to share between Carson and Penny. Look for Seattle to continue to tote the rock in 2019. 

RB Rashaad Penny

2018

  • Played in 12 games (missed a couple of games do to a knee injury)
  • 1 game over 100 yards rushing
  • 4.9 yards per carry 
  • 5.1 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

See SEA RB strength of schedule snapshot under Chris Carson

In week 10, Penny assumed lead duties with Carson out (knee), Penny rushed for 108 yards on 12 carries and average a staggering 9.0 yards per rush. If you draft Chris Carson, I highly suggest you plan on taking Penny as early as the 6 round if you want to guarantee your handcuff, that’s his current price. Penny’s current ADP is 78th OVR / RB 32, in the middle of the sixth, he is slightly overvalued. Rudy projects him to finish 13 spots behind his RB32 ADP, posting a RB45 finish in 2019. You are banking on Carson getting injured, or Penny stealing the lead job, in order to realize his draft equity. Penny nor Carson produced relevant passing fantasy stats. A lot of buz coming out of Seahawks camp surrounding Penny’s improvements, but he will still have to dethrone Carson to tote this rock full time. This is possible and Carson does have an injury history. Luckily for both backs, Mike Davis leaves behind 112 rushing attempts. This gives Penny a shot to hold some fantasy value even in a Carson led backfield. 6th round is almost too rich for my blood.

WR Tyler Lockett

2018 Recap

  • WR16
  • Played all 16 games
  • Beat weekly projections 11 out of 16 games
  • 1 game over 100yds receiving
  • 4.4 targets per game and WR57 in total targets (71)
  • 3.6 receptions per game and WR39 in total receptions (51)
  • 13.9 fantasy points per game

2019 Outlook

  • Strength of Schedule at-a-glance
    • 8th easiest overall strength of schedule
    • Doesn’t face a top 10 hardest fantasy defense until week 7
    • Juicy last half of the season (week 8 – 16), 5 out 8 matchups are against top 10 easiest fantasy defenses for WRs

The level of efficiency from Wilson-to-Lockett was off the charts last season. He lead the NFL in yards per target, and made the most of his 57 grabs. To put what he was able to do in perspective, ahead of him was Danny Amendola with 59 grabs and 127.4 fantasy points, and Willie Snead with 62 grabs  and 134.4 fantasy points per game. Tyler finished the season with a total of 222.4 fantasy points and was WR16, both Snead and Amendola finished outside of the top 50 fantasy receivers. Baldwin has retired, vacating 73 targets for Tyler, AND the #1 receiving duties for this offense. Event though his efficiency numbers are expected to decline, the volume of targets will increase. Rudy has Tyler finishing as WR16, presenting us with value at his current ADP, 55 OVR / WR23. I hate having to write about people I love drafting, but I like to increase the level of competition around me. 

SEA Quick Hits: In the late rounds and deeper leagues, DK Metcalf is a nice rookie WR flyer to look at. They guy is a physical specimen, you can see for yourself inthe photos below. If Metcalf can earn himself a consistent spot on the field then the Seahawks will use him in multiple ways but most importantly the RedZone. Razzball has Metcalf finishing as WR66 in 2019. We might see his stock rise once we get our eyes on him in pre-season games. I prefer the upside with Metcalf if I’m going to target a 2nd pass catcher in Seattles offense, even though Rudy has WR David Moore finishing at WR55. Unfortunately for both, in a run-first offense ,there are not a lot of passes to go around after Tyler Lockett. Limiting the season long fantasy value for these two pass catchers. Only in TE premium formats and deeper leagues, like the Scott Fish Bowl, is TE Will Dissly a serious TE target. Dissly bursted on the scene in week one of 2018, last season, breaking 105 yards receiving and 1 TD. He showed his athleticism by taking a pass for 66 yards. Unfortunately his season ended abruptly after tearing his patella tendon. Currently projected as TE29, in re-draft leagues keep Dissly on waivers but add him to your watch list. 

Now time for some Seattle CHVs (camp hyphy vids)…

Is this a worse look for Lockett or better look for D.K.

Wilson seems to enjoy it..

 

Next Up: AFC West Part I – Denver Broncos + Kansas City Chiefs

As always, leave your feedback below or holler @ me on twitter. 

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