If you’ve been reading my NFL season preview series thus far, then you know I opened with the AFC East, then followed up with the North last week. Through two weeks of research and projections, I have the New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens leading the way in the AFC. This time around, let’s buckle up and dive into the very intriguing – and young – AFC South.Â
4. Houston Texans
Last year’s record: 3-13-1
Current Vegas Over/Under: 6.5
Frascella’s Projection: 5-12
The storyline: Two rookies are under the microscope for the Houston Texans: Rookie head coach DeMeco Ryan and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. Is this team ready to compete, right out the gate?Â
Fantasy sleeper: After a difficult road back, WR John Metchie III has looked explosive in drills and workouts. Early reports are that the Texans lack downfield passing in their attack, but Metchie could be an ace on short and intermediate patterns. The door is wide open because the Texans don’t have a lot of talent at the wide receiver position.Â
Fantasy bust: Dameon Pierce is very talented in a vacuum, but what happens when opposing defenses stack the box, knowing the Texans can’t really stretch the field? Opposing defenses should expect Pierce to be the focal point of the Texans young offense, thus the deck is stacked up against him. He’ll have to be extremely versatile to produce at the right clip.Â
3. Indianapolis Colts
Last year’s record: 4-12-1
Current Vegas Over/Under: 6.5
Frascella’s Projection: 6-11
The storyline: Two rookies are under the microscope… wait, didn’t I just write this about the Texans, too? Nonetheless, the same situation applies with the Colts: Head coach Shane Steichen and quarterback Anthony Richardson are both rookies. Are they ready to strike in year 1?Â
Fantasy sleeper: Young RB Deon Jackson is one to watch because the Jonathan Taylor situation is a mess. Taylor is already coming off major injury, plus he wants to be traded. Taylor could sit out, get hurt again, get traded, who knows? So just keep an eye on Jackson as the second-best in Indy’s bizarre backfield.Â
Fantasy bust: You guessed it… Jonathan Taylor. Is he even worth it, with his ADP continuing to command a high price point? I tend to play it safe with my early picks, so no. Let’s look for someone healthy and committed to the team he is on.Â
2. Tennessee Titans
Last year’s record: 7-10
Current Vegas Over/Under: 7.5
Frascella’s Projection: 8-9
The storyline: The Titans are all-in on their ‘last hurrah’ with this group, adding veteran WR DeAndre Hopkins to fellow vets QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry. It’s now or never for this group because changes are undoubtedly coming down the pipeline.Â
Fantasy sleeper: WR Treylon Burks is picking up steam for me because no one is drafting him anymore. The Hopkins acquisition supposedly ‘killed his value,’ but I happen to like the price point we are getting for young Burks now.Â
Fantasy bust: TE Chigoziem Okonkwo has been riding the fantasy football hype train all offseason, but is the proof in the pudding? I expect Henry, Hopkins and Burks to dominate touches within the Titans’ low-risk offensive attack.Â
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Last year’s record: 9-8
Current Vegas Over/Under: 9.5
Frascella’s Projection: 9-8
The storyline: Is this the time for Trevor Lawrence and his young Jaguars to make ‘The Leap’ this season? I’m not entirely sure.Â
Fantasy sleeper: Zay Jones. Well it’s always Zay Jones… isn’t it? You don’t have to spend any draft capital to get him, yet he always gets better and finds a way to produce. Jones has found a true home in Jacksonville, and he knows how to rack up stats within Doug Pederson’s multi-faceted offense.Â
Fantasy bust: Calvin Ridley looks great in clips, but… this is a wide receiver who has only cracked 1,000 yards once in his NFL career. Is he truly worth his ever-climbing ADP?Â
I’ll see ya right back here next week for the AFC West!Â
John Frascella is a published sports author who has been covering the NFL for 19 years. Follow him on Twitter @LegendSports7 for all things NFL, NBA and MLB throughout the year.Â
John Frascella’s NFL Preseason Predictions to Date
1. Baltimore Ravens: 12-5
2. New York Jets: 12-5
3. Buffalo Bills: 11-6
4. Miami Dolphins: 10-7
5. Cincinnati Bengals: 10-7
6. Jacksonville Jaguars: 9-8
7. Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8
8. Tennessee Titans: 8-9
9. Cleveland Browns: 8-9
10. New England Patriots: 7-10Â
11. Indianapolis Colts: 6-11
12. Houston Texans: 5-12
