“Occam’s Razor,” says the simplest answer is usually the right one. So when it comes to the NFL and fantasy football, who could possibly be a safer play than the game’s most marketable player, Pat Mahomes, the Super Bowl MVP?
Pat Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
The case for Mahomes: He was the QB1 last season, and he’s the best player in football – that should be enough, right? Of course, it’s not that easy when Allen has really been the QB1 over the entirety of the past three seasons.
You have to realize we are really digging deep and splitting hairs here. Little ‘knocks’ can be the difference between Mahomes, Allen and Hurts.
The case against Mahomes: Do the Chiefs have enough talent at wide receiver to sustain the QB1 in all of fantasy football? JuJu Smith-Schuster is now a New England Patriot, and KC is awfully young at WR, with roles expected for sophomore Skyy Moore and rookie Rashee Rice. Does Mahomes have just enough personnel help to stay at the top spot overall?
In addition, any bumps and bruises, is there a reason for the Chiefs to ever force Mahomes to play a game? They are the defending Super Bowl champions, so they need to continually protect Mahomes at all costs. In terms of games played, the older he gets, the more the Chiefs should preserve him. There is never a need to push him to play through injury if the situation arises.
The case for Allen: He’s been the QB1 over the course of the past three fantasy seasons. He gives us more of a rushing attack than Mahomes, and that run-pass versatility is always of paramount importance at fantasy QB. The Bills have more to prove than the Chiefs do. Allen has more to prove than Mahomes. He should be healthier than the second half of last season… but is he?
The case against Allen: Exactly how long does a UCL injury linger? Is there some sort of outside possibility that Allen will never quite be the electric thrower he once was? Those types of things worry me when I know I can just go with Mahomes or Hurts in a similar draft spot. I like Allen’s total package, but I have to hesitate for a split second before I click that ‘draft’ button.
The case for Hurts: Had Hurts played the entire season, he would have been the overall QB1 last season. He missed a couple of games, ultimately allowing Mahomes to slide in and grab the QB crown.
But we all know what we saw, right? Hurts had one of the most dominant QB rushing seasons of all time, not to mention the fact that his passing statistics improve steadily on a yearly basis. This is a young man who is clearly on a mission, one with loads of talent around him, including A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny. Don’t forget — arguably — the best offensive line in the league, too.
The case against Hurts: Does he simply put his body on the line too often? By the sheer nature of his style of play, is he always going to miss a couple of games here and there? Is he the type of athlete who even has the ability to ‘gear-down’ when needed?
All three of these young men are tremendous quarterbacks and competitors. In the end, I’m probably going with Hurts because the Eagles have the most offensive support – including O-line – and I have a gut feeling that Hurts is going to get his first championship relatively soon. He won’t rest until the job is done. We love that relentlessness in fantasy football.
I’ll see ya right back here next week!
John Frascella is a published sports author who has been covering the NFL for 19 years. Follow him on Twitter @LegendSports7 for all things fantasy football, basketball and baseball throughout the year.