Projections are like opinions, and you know what Dirty Harry said about opinions.

“Well, opinions are like as*holes. Everybody has one.” -Harry Callahan (Dead Pool, 1988).

Projections are “informed” guesses, often by someone who thinks they know more than the next. Hopeful approximations. A false promise almost guaranteed to disappoint. Projections are generally misleading and biased, and we can hardly rely upon them. If projections were accurate they wouldn’t be projections, they’d be stats. And if projections were consistently correct, fantasy sports would be an incredibly boring pastime. In a fantasy world filled with projections, many of us are starved for facts. But to where should we turn? The stats. Why? Because stats do not lie. In fantasy football they paint a near exact picture of what has occurred and how each player has, or has not, produced.

One famous, and dead, author might disagree. A long time ago Mark Twain said “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” I call bullsh*t Mr. Twain. Me and everybody reading this article knows that if you were alive today, you’d not only be in at least four fantasy football leagues, but you’d be reading Razzball in hopes of uncovering that small bit of advice or oddball statistic that helped you win the coming week’s matchups and bring you one step closer to a fantasy championship.

Okay, enough banter. Let’s get to why we are here. How can we leverage the stats to help pinpoint players that are at the top of their game, or perhaps on their way there.