Today I’ll be taking you through my redraft wide receiver rankings. These are set up for a half-PPR league, so minor adjustments to volume receivers and deep threats should be made if you’re in a PPR league. I finished 2022 as the third most accurate expert on FantasyPros, so I hope you can confidently use these rankings. You can find my full rankings, including dynasty, at ffdfantasyfootball.com. I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments, but you can also hit me up on Instagram @thefantasyfirstdown, where I answer all questions.
To make things a little easier, I’ve broken things up into tiers, grouping players who are, in my opinion, close in value. When you actually draft these players relative to other positions really depends on your specific league settings, so I won’t be covering that here.
Tier 1: The True Studs
- Justin Jefferson (MIN)
- Cooper Kupp (LAR)
- Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
- Tyreek Hill (MIA)
The only question with Justin Jefferson is whether you take him over Christian McCaffrey. I would take JJ first in PPR, but he’s the 1.02 for me in half-PPR. Jefferson should really be in his own tier, but for the sake of convenience, I’ve combined him with the other top receivers. Cooper Kupp is just slightly above the others for me. He’s got no target competition, he’s extremely talented, and through 9 weeks (before his injury), he was well ahead of Jefferson.
I’d expect a drop in touchdown production, but he’s otherwise a locked-in stud. Ja’Marr Chase is slightly overrated for me. He has massive boom games, which means he’ll likely finish Top 5 in points (if he can stay healthy), but he’ll have many more single-digit weeks than you’d want from your first-round pick. Tyreek Hill would actually be above Chase if not for Tua Tagovailoa’s health concerns.
Hill has been a top 6 WR in five of the last six seasons, and if Tua is healthy, there’s no reason to think he can’t do it again. As a late addendum, the possibility of a suspension does ease him back towards Tier 2, even though a suspension seems unlikely at this stage.
Tier 2: The Set and Forgets
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
- Davante Adams (LV)
- Stefon Diggs (BUF)
- AJ Brown (PHI)
There are a few reasons to love CeeDee Lamb. Firstly, he’s always healthy, as he’s yet to miss a game in his three-year career. Secondly, the Cowboys will likely pass more with Ezekiel Elliott out of town, particularly in the red zone. The departure of Dalton Schultz likely helps his volume there too. Thirdly, his role in the team is far more secure than the others in this tier.
That leads me to the following two guys. Davante Adams is reaching the end of an excellent career, with four Top 3 finishes in the last five seasons. But the Raiders look like they may struggle in 2023, especially if Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t healthy. Will Adams want out? Will he perform at a high level for fantasy? There’s plenty of chatter in Buffalo around Stefon Diggs, too, after his post-season blow-up. He’s still the clear alpha in this offense, but the additions of Damien Harris and Dalton Kincaid will certainly dilute his share, especially in the red zone.
As a receiver who relies on double-digit touchdowns for production, that’s a concern. Finally, AJ Brown; there are plenty of concerns around whether he and Jalen Hurts can continue his excellent run from 2022. He clearly has the talent, but there are many mouths to feed in Philadelphia, and it’s hard to see Brown maintaining the volume to pay off this draft cost. He’s still far safer than those in Tier 3.
Tier 3: The Young and the Restless
- Garrett Wilson (NYJ)
- Amon-Ra St Brown (DET)
- DeVonta Smith (PHI)
- DeAndre Hopkins (FA)
- Tee Higgins (CIN)
- Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
- Chris Olave (NO)
After the stud players we’ve all come to know and love, there are a lot of upside receivers who are just a small jump or an injury to a starter away from having a top-five season. Garrett Wilson is my favorite. I feel like the Jets may struggle to run, and while Robert Saleh has brought in plenty of receiving depth, Wilson is the clear WR1. With a little TD regression and a natural year two bump, he’ll be in the Tier 1 conversation in no time.
Amon-Ra St Brown is certainly in that same conversation, and in PPR, I’d have him above Wilson. But I feel he lacks upside, and if the Lions’ defense improves, you have to assume their extreme offensive output drops off a little, starting with the passing game. The additions of Sam LaPorta and, eventually, Jameson Williams can only hurt St Brown as well. DeVonta Smith is another with major talent in his way: AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert and some excellent running backs. But Jalen Hurts supported two WR1s and a TE1 last year, so there’s no reason to totally discount their second receiver.
Plus, he has massive upside if AJ Brown goes down. DeAndre Hopkins is the odd man out in this tier. I had him higher when he was still on the Cardinals, but the uncertainty around where and when he signs scares me a little. The upside if he goes to the Chiefs, for example, is huge though. He had double-digit points in PPR in eight consecutive weeks after his suspension and averaged over 10 targets a game on the season. If Nuk can stay healthy, he’s a fantastic chance of a Top 10 finish, if not even better.
Tee Higgins and Jaylen Waddle fit in the same category as DeVonta Smith. They’re just not quite as good. Higgins is very unreliable, with boom weeks aplenty but no consistency. Waddle is a fantastic talent but even scarier for fantasy, relying on an injury-prone QB with an improved running game likely to hurt his volume. Chris Olave is an intriguing prospect at the end of this tier. He also has WR1 upside, as Derek Carr has regularly shown the ability to support stud receivers. But if Michael Thomas is back and healthy, Olave could really suffer.
Tier 4: Can They Get Back There?
- Amari Cooper
- Keenan Allen
- DK Metcalf
- Jerry Jeudy
- Chris Godwin
This tier lacks the high-level upside of Tier 3. Still, they’re great WR2 selections, with relatively safe floors and the possibility they return to the WR1 level all but Jeudy have experienced multiple times before. I like Amari Cooper the best of this bunch. I expect Deshaun Watson to step up in his first proper season back, and while the Browns have added a lot of pass-catching options, Cooper remains the clear WR1. He could easily repeat his WR9 finish from 2022.
Keenan Allen is similarly supremely talented with plenty of target competition, but the challenge is his health. However, his stats from last year hide just how good he was when healthy. From Week 10 onwards, he was the WR4. While a top 5 finish is unlikely with Mike Williams and Quentin Johnston on the field, the mooted pass-heavy offense under Kellen Moore could escalate Allen back to league-winning levels. DK Metcalf should expect TD regression, as his touchdown count halved in 2022 thanks to the tight ends and Tyler Lockett sharing 18 six-pointers between them.
But the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba must hurt his target volume, as all Seahawks receivers not named DK or Tyler totaled only 47 receptions in 2022. Jerry Jeudy is an elite talent who has consistently underperformed in the NFL. The addition of Russell Wilson was meant to spark the Broncos’ offense, but that wasn’t the case. Sean Payton is not going to let that happen again. Jerry Jeudy is the WR1 in Denver, and that will be valuable in fantasy.
Chris Godwin has three 1000-yard seasons since 2019, despite missing at least two games every year. While expecting him to stay healthy is like hoping my dog will suddenly stop eating my socks, that injury-riddled period has still led to three Top 20 finishes. When he’s on the field, Godwin is elite. He was the overall WR20 last year with two missed games and only three touchdowns. Even with Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask or Tom Brady’s next-door neighbor tossing the ball, Godwin is still a strong WR2 option.
Tier 5: Riding a Bike Without a Helmet
- Terry McLaurin (WAS)
- Drake London (ATL)
- Tyler Lockett (SEA)
- Deebo Samuel (SF)
- Marquise Brown (ARI)
- Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
- DJ Moore (CHI)
- Christian Kirk (JAC)
- Calvin Ridley (JAC)
This tier might look cool, but they’re very dangerous. Terry McLaurin has finished as a WR18-25 in each of the last four seasons. There’s a good chance he’ll do it again, but given his weekly variance, do you want him in fantasy? F1 never topped eight receptions in a game last year, so you’re banking on yardage and the occasional touchdown. With Jahan Dotson emerging, McLaurin may drop back into the WR3 range this year with Sam Howell et al. He’s a better best ball option than H2H.
Drake London had a strong rookie year, and it’s reasonable to expect a step up in year two. He was targeted 36 times in Desmond Ridder’s four games and seemed to take a step up in general late in the season. But he’s obviously risky, as projecting a second-year jump means paying for the upside. Tyler Lockett has had five consecutive seasons in the Top 20, but he’s relied on at least eight touchdowns every year, along with significant volume.
The addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba will likely hurt both of these totals. I’d still expect he ends up as a low-WR2, but that’s rather a testament to his ability to stay healthy. Deebo Samuel is massively overrated. I’d like to have him even lower in my rankings, but I’m only willing to push so hard against the consensus. 2021 Deebo always looked like a total fluke. Deebo averaged over 18 yards per reception, scored 15 TDs, and got 121 targets.
All of those numbers regressed to 11.3, 5 and 94, respectively. His injury and general poor play had an impact, but the inclusion of Christian McCaffrey and the return to prominence of Brandon Aiyuk did more. Even if he’s available as the WR24, I still wouldn’t be drafting him and may well move him down my rankings further as the season approaches.
Speaking of Aiyuk, I favor him over Samuel personally, but I recognize that’s a very risky take. He’s the more talented receiver, and I love the prospect of him playing with Brock Purdy again. If CMC, Deebo and George Kittle all stay healthy, I could imagine a step back. WR26 seems like great value, though. With Hopkins out of town, Marquise Brown again becomes the Cardinals’ WR1. He was the WR6 after the six weeks of Nuk’s suspension, so it’s fair to assume he’ll be very valuable again in 2023.
Having Colt McCoy passing him the ball instead of Kyler Murray won’t help, but I still like the volume upside, given the Cards’ awful defense. I hate the DJ Moore move to Chicago. Justin Fields hasn’t yet shown the ability to sustain any semblance of passing offense. I don’t love Moore’s chances of paying off this cost with Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool and Cole Kmet also sniffing around for targets.
The two Jaguars at the end of this tier are very interesting. I like the chances of Trevor Lawrence taking a step forward this year, but it’s hard to imagine both Kirk and Ridley can be WR2s, with Travis Etienne being a borderline RB1 and Evan Engram being a TE1. Christian Kirk was excellent last year, but Zay Jones isn’t exactly a lot of target competition. The return of Calvin Ridley could prove irrelevant, but it’s also possible he will return to his 2020 level when he finished as the WR4. I don’t expect both receivers to perform, but it’s worth taking a punt on one.
Tier 6: Second-Year Jumps and Bounce Backs
- Mike Williams (LAC)
- Christian Watson (GB)
- Michael Pittman (IND)
- Mike Evans (TB)
- George Pickens (PIT)
- Jahan Dotson (WAS)
- Diontae Johnson (PIT)
- Kadarius Toney (KC)
- Courtland Sutton (DEN)
Mike Williams is one player I can see myself moving up as the pre-season goes on. He gets unfairly painted as injury-prone, but he’d only missed two games in four seasons entering 2022. While last year wasn’t good, he still had four 100+ yard games. A strong passing offense under Kellen Moore should mean good things for Williams, but the inclusion of Quentin Johnston could easily stifle that bounce back.
Christian Watson had three 100+ yard games and no others with over 50 yards. He’s also likely to experience TD regression while the whole Packers offense may struggle under Jordan Love. There’s upside, but it’ll be boom/bust. Michael Pittman’s quarterback situation really scares me. Whether it’s Minshew or Richardson, I don’t like Pittman’s chances of a third straight WR2 finish. He does have the talent to overcome it, though.
Mike Evans is another who needs to bounce back, but with Mayfield and Trask at the helm, it’s hard to see him returning to another WR1 finish after five straight years near the top. Evans scored half of his touchdowns and one-sixth of his yards in one game last year; that’s not a sustainable model when you don’t have Tom Brady to support you.
The two Steelers’ receivers seem to be heading in different directions, but I can imagine a step forward for both. Pickens needs more volume to move into the WR2 region, but a second-year leap for Kenny Pickett could easily provide that. Diontae Johnson likely needs more from his quarterback, but TD regression is a given after DJ dropped from 8 scores to none in 2022. Johnson is one I’d have a fair bit higher in PPR.
Jahan Dotson is another upside pick. He had 35 targets in his last five games, topping 50 yards in four of them and scoring three touchdowns. If he can click with Sam Howell, he’s a real boom possibility. Kadarius Toney is the definition of boom/bust. If he’s the true Chiefs WR1, he has massive upside. But he’s just as likely to be totally useless for fantasy. It really could go either way.
Finally, there’s Courtland Sutton, who many expected to be a stud under Russell Wilson, but he badly needs a bounce back. Three years removed from his WR19 season, it’s hard to imagine him reaching those sorts of heights, even though he surely must improve on his two touchdowns and 829 yards in 2022.
Tier 7: Poor Quarterbacks and Dart Throws
- Treylon Burks
- Rashod Bateman
- Jordan Addison
- DJ Chark
- Michael Thomas
- Juju Smith-Schuster
- Rondale Moore
- Brandin Cooks
- Nico Collins
It’s hard to provide fantasy production with a weak quarterback or a struggling offense. That really limits the upside for the likes of Treylon Burks, Rashod Bateman and Juju Smith-Schuster. It’ll also be tricky for DJ Chark and Nico Collins with their rookie quarterbacks, but at least they’re likely their team’s WR1s.
The best upside play is Michael Thomas. On rare occasions when he’s been healthy, Thomas has been rather productive, but the injury risk is huge. At this cost, though, it’s worth the gamble for his upside. Lastly, Jordan Addison is my top rookie, as he has the clearest path to targets. Though I think he lacks some upside.
Tier 8: The rookies and The WR2s
- Quentin Johnston (LAC)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA)
- Zay Flowers (BAL)
- Darius Slayton (NYG)
- Jakobi Meyers (LV)
- Gabe Davis (BUF)
- Allen Lazard (NYJ)
- Elijah Moore (CLE)
- Parris Campbell (NYG)
- John Metchie (HOU)
- Jameson Williams (DET)
- Michael Gallup (DAL)
- Jonathan Mingo (CAR)
By this stage in drafts, you’re just hoping to get lucky. Without an injury ahead of them, most of these players are unlikely to provide anything more than bye-week value. The exceptions are the Giants receivers, where you really need one to emerge as the clear WR1 for Daniel Jones before you’d start them in fantasy. That seems unlikely, though.
Meanwhile, John Metchie and Jameson Williams have the talent to be superstars if everything goes perfectly for them. But that’s a huge and unlikely if in 2023. Finally, there are the rookies. I don’t love any of them this season, but with the right injury ahead or an unexpected decline by a veteran, you never know.
Next week I’ll be back with a breakdown of my tight end rankings. Remember to check out my full rankings for all positions at ffdfantasyfootball.com
