Quarterback and Tight End Hit Rates: Why Drake Maye Will Be A Success In Fantasy

Over half of the first thirteen picks in the 2024 NFL Draft were quarterbacks or tight ends, so I looked back at 20 years of fantasy data to find out what we should expect from this year’s rookies. I’ll be looking at the career hit rates of players drafted in the ranges of this year’s rookies, categorizing them based on their career fantasy production both in the short- and long-term. I’ll judge players based on their peak success and their longevity to create an overall picture of quarterback and tight end hit rates. Also make sure you check out my dynasty and rookie rankings, my breakdown of all four positions and follow me on Instagram @TheFantasyFirstDown and on Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn.

I looked at fantasy production from all quarterbacks and tight ends drafted since 2010, though I looked as far back as 2004 for the earlier picks to get a better sample size. Players were placed into one of 8 categories:

Superstars: A top 2 fantasy finish and 7+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Studs: A top 5 fantasy finish and 5+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Starters: A top 12 fantasy finish and 4+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Backups: A top 18 fantasy finish and 4+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Solid players: A top 30 fantasy finish and 4+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Brief Booms: A top 5 fantasy finish and less than 4 years of fantasy-relevant production

Brief Values: A top 30 fantasy finish and 2-3 years of fantasy-relevant production

Bust: Less than 2 years of fantasy-relevant production and no top 5 finishes

I also ignored any players who are too early in their careers to be fairly categorized. This included almost all players drafted in 2023. You’ll notice that my cutoffs are half that of running backs and wide receivers. This is to reflect most leagues starting only one quarterback and one tight end.

The full results are listed at the bottom of this article.

Top 5 Quarterback Picks (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye)

There’s a common perception among NFL fans that quarterbacks are a bit of a lottery and that early quarterback picks regularly bust. That couldn’t be further from the truth. Only three quarterbacks drafted in the top 5 in the last twenty years have been true busts: Trey Lance, JaMarcus Russell and Vince Young. There’s also a small group of Zach Wilson, Sam Darnold and Mark Sanchez who have had brief relevance but have been very disappointing for fantasy owners and team owners alike. That means nearly three quarters of top 5 quarterback picks will turn into, at the very least, a solid NFL starter, with over half providing at least five years of fantasy relevance and at least one top 10 fantasy finish. That should give you enormous confidence in this year’s top three rookies. Williams, Daniels and Maye are not only better prospects than many of the players studied, they also have the capacity to offer yardage on the ground which gives significant fantasy security. To me, they’re all players I’m targeting early in rookie and dynasty startups alike.

Mid-1^st round Quarterback Picks (Michael Penix, JJ McCarthy, Bo Nix)

You’d think picks 6-16 would have a similarly high success rate but, shockingly, over half of quarterbacks picked in this range have been out of a starting job within three years. Names like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Deshaun Watson certainly stand out, but passers like Mac Jones, Josh Rosen and EJ Manuel make up a far higher proportion of players picked here. The biggest takeaway for me is that you should be drafting JJ McCarthy well after Drake Maye in rookie drafts. I understand that McCarthy goes into a more favorable situation but there are a lot of red flags. At Michigan, JJ was rarely required to chase games, often operating as a game manger behind a brutal running game. The Vikings also didn’t feel the need to push into the top 5 to draft him which suggests they were OK with missing out on him. Many teams didn’t even have McCarthy ranked in their top five quarterbacks. McCarthy, Penix and Nix may turn into excellent NFL quarterbacks, but their chances of busting are also uncomfortably high.

Day 3 Quarterback Picks (Spencer Rattler, Jordan Travis, Joe Milton, Devin Leary, Michael Pratt)

Yes, Brock Purdy has been a good fantasy starter blah blah blah, but look at the numbers! Over 90% of Day 3 QB picks will be totally irrelevant for fantasy and the two greatest exceptions, Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins, were drafted in the 4^th round. This year’s late round picks simply aren’t worth drafting outside the deepest of leagues.

Top 16 Tight End Picks (Brock Bowers)

The sample size may be tiny, but early tight end picks always hit. Bowers is an elite receiving mismatch weapon and goes into a situation with little target competition outside an aging Davante Adams. Bowers should go in the top 5 picks of every non-superflex rookie draft and if he falls further, I’m moving heaven and earth to get him. There is unlikely to be a safer tight end pick with this much upside in the next decade.

Mid-Late 2^nd Round Tight End Picks (Ben Sinnott)

Things get pretty ugly for tight ends by the late second round. While there have been plenty of solid tight end starters in this range, an almost 50% bust rate should be enough to scare you off being bullish on Sinnott. He also goes into an awkward situation behind a rookie quarterback in a run-heavy offense while Zach Ertz will likely take the starting snaps out the gate. I have no interest in the Commanders rookie until at least the third round of rookie drafts.

3^rd Round Tight End Picks (Tip Reimann)

Reimann is likely to be a blocking tight end in the NFL and that’s assuming he even sees the field. He was an egregious reach for the Cardinals in the NFL draft, don’t make the same mistake in dynasty.

Early Day 3 Tight End Picks (Ja’Tavion Sanders, Theo Johnson, Erick All Jr, AJ Barner, Cade Stover, Jared Wiley)

The majority of Day 3 tight ends will bust but you will occasionally find a George Kittle or Jake Ferguson among the chaff. While the 77% bust rate is scary, it’s important to recognize that many of these players were drafted as blocking tight ends and we knew that at the time. That should immediately knock AJ Barner out of fantasy contention. But what do you make of the others? I personally favor Sanders and All as potential fantasy starters. Sanders has the opportunity to immediately become the receiving tight end ahead of Tommy Tremble while he has the upside to develop as a blocker and eventually become an every down player. All goes to a better offense but the Bengals have favored a tight end committee approach of late. It’s not difficult to imagine All beating out the likes of Mike Gesicki and Tanner Hudson though. I think Johnson, Stover and Wiley are also viable late round tight end gambles in deeper rookie drafts but predicting which of this group of six will ultimately be a success probably isn’t the best use of your fantasy assets.

Late Day 3 Tight End Picks (Tanner McLaughlin, Jaheim Bell, Devin Culp)

Three words: Don’t Do It! The biggest fantasy successes in this range have been Darren Waller (who was drafted as a wide receiver) and Ryan Griffin. That’s among 65 players over 14 years. Yikes! While I personally expected Jaheim Bell to go earlier in the draft as a solid pass-catching tight end, the NFL teams have spoken. Outside the deepest of leagues, leave these guys on waivers. 

I’ll be back next week with and update of my full dynasty rankings. If you’re wanting to learn more about quarterback and tight end hit rates though, you can check out my video deep dives here and here.

Quarterbacks:

Tight ends: