Rookie Wide Receiver Hit Rates: What to Expect From This Year’s Class

With this year’s bumper wide receiver class dominating rookie drafts, it’s important to understand what you should expect from these players. I’ll be looking at the career hit rates of players drafted in the ranges of this year’s rookies, categorizing them based on their career fantasy production both in the short- and long-term. I’ll judge players based on their peak success and their longevity to create an overall picture of wide receiver hit rate. Also make sure you check out my dynasty and rookie rankings, my breakdown of all four positions and follow us on Instagram @TheFantasyFirstDown and on Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn.

I looked at fantasy production from all wide receivers drafted since 2010, though I looked as far back as 2004 for the earlier picks to get a better sample size.

Players were placed into one of 8 categories:

Superstars: A top 5 fantasy finish and 7+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Studs: A top 10 fantasy finish and 5+ years of fantasy-relevant production

WR2s: A top 24 fantasy finish and 4+ years of fantasy-relevant production

WR3s: A top 36 fantasy finish and 4+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Solid players: A top 60 fantasy finish and 4+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Brief Booms: A top 10 fantasy finish and less than 4 years of fantasy-relevant production

Brief Values: A top 60 fantasy finish and 2-4 years of fantasy-relevant production

Bust: Less than 2 years of fantasy-relevant production and no top 10 finishes

I also ignored any players who are too early in their careers to be fairly categorized. This included almost all players drafted in 2023. One interesting note is that every player with at least one top 10 fantasy finish also had at least four year of fantasy-relevant production. Hunter Renfrow was the closest to a brief boom, with a WR11 finish of three years of fantasy-relevant production.

The full results are listed at the bottom of this article.

Top 10 picks (Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze)

It’s no surprise that wide receivers drafted in the top 10 are most likely to be fantasy assets but I must admit I’m surprised by just how successful they’ve been. Half of these top 10 picks since 2004 have at least one top 10 fantasy finish alongside a long period of fantasy football relevance. We’re talking superstars like Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Mike Evans, Ja’Marr Chase and Larry Fitzgerald. In fact, there have only been six busts in the last two decades, with only John Ross and Kevin White failing in the last ten years. As an added bonus, top ten picks are also less likely to suffer significant injuries, presumedly as teams won’t draft injury risks this early. You should draft Harrison, Nabers and Odunze with confidence in dynasty leagues. There are no guarantees in football, but these guys are likely to be productive fantasy options for much of the next decade.

Mid 1^st round picks (Brian Thomas Jr)

In analysing the data, there seemed to be a significant drop-off in fantasy production from Pick 25 onwards. For that reason, I’ve separated Brian Thomas Jr from the remainder of the 1^st round rookie receivers. While mid 1st rounders are less likely to be fantasy league winners, they’re just as unlikely to bust, with most of these players proving valuable fantasy options over the last twenty years. CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson are the more recent stars, but Odell Beckham Jr, Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant have all proven fantastic fantasy commodities too. It’s especially notable that three of these players were picked in the 21-24 range, right where Brian Thomas Jr fell. There’s a lot of risk in Thomas Jr, who is an athletic freak with significant drop issues. His route running needs a lot of work and he plays a little too soft for my liking. The data clearly shows the upside is there, but he doesn’t come without risk and should be valued well below the top three.

Late 1^st round/Early 2^nd round picks (Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Legette, Keon Coleman, Ladd McConkey and Ja’Lynn Polk)

Given this year’s bumper crop of receiving talent, it’s not surprising to see an influx of rookies on either side of the Day 1/2 border. Many of these players would have been selected earlier in other years, but I think this is still the right region to analyse for most of these players. The top names in this range over the past decade have been Deebo Samuel, Calvin Ridley, Deandre Hopkins, Hakeem Nicks, Jordy Nelson and Roddy Brown. This does represent a notable drop-off at the top end but the real concern is the downside. Over half of the players drafted in this round have failed to produce more than a couple of years of fantasy production. Promisingly, the only true bust since 2016 has been N’Keal Harry, with Rashod Bateman and Jonathan Mingo heading that way. That gives some hope that many of these players will, at the very least, be solid fantasy producers for you over the next 5-10 years. Some of these rookies will boom while others will bust, but many will just be solid fantasy options. I’d suggest a solid result from this group would be a Michael Pittman to Curtis Samuel level of career. 

Mid-late 2^nd round picks (Adonai Mitchell)

Over the previous six drafts, picks 41-64 averaged 4.5 wide receivers. This year it was only Adonai Mitchell going in this range, with most receiver-needy teams already grabbing their guy earlier. Mid 2nd rounders are nearly as likely to boom as earlier picks, but they are also far more likely to bust, with 60% of these players failing to offer you multiple fantasy seasons of quality. The upside is still there though, with guns like AJ Brown, Michael Thomas, Davante Adams and DK Metcalf all going in this range. Mitchell has just as much upside as these guys, but his bust potential is undeniable. Reports suggest teams were concerned about his character and ability to manage his diabetes while his play indicated a lack of explosiveness and some drop issues. We’ve seen these players succeed, but you’re taking a real gamble if you draft the rookie Colt in your dynasty drafts.

3^rd round picks (Malachi Corley, Jermaine Burton, Roman Wilson, Jalen McMillan and Luke McCaffrey)

The 3^rd round has seen its fair share of superstars, with TY Hilton, Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin and Cooper Kupp all going late on day 2 while Tank Dell has shown plenty of potential so far. But for every success story, there are several Cedric Tillmans, a few Tre Tuckers and a Velus Jones or two. I really like Roman Wilson. I like his landing spot given the Steelers’ history of producing with Day 2 and 3 wide receivers. But I’m also realistic that even given his sweet landing spot, he’s more likely to bust than not. Jermaine Burton, who has huge upside but even bigger character concerns, is another who could add his name to the list of successes, but again, probably won’t. Corley, McMillan and McCaffrey all likely get opportunities to start but that doesn’t mean as much as you might think. Don’t get seduced by the upside without recognizing the more likely disappointment.

Early Day 3 picks (Troy Franklin, Devontez Walker, Javon Baker and others)

Plenty of fantasy analysts will promote the value of the likes of Troy Franklin and Javon Baker but let’s be very clear, they’re highly unlikely to provide you any value at all. Nearly 80% of early Day 3 picks totally bust while plenty more are, at best, passable fantasy options. Since 2012 only Amon-Ra St Brown, Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs have been fantasy gold mines, while nearly 100 players have ended up off dynasty rosters in a season or two. Don’t fall for the clickbait; Franklin, Walker and Baker are at best lotto tickets and you should value them as such.

Later Day 3 picks (Brendan Rice, Ryan Flournoy, Malik Washington and others)

100 players have been drafted in round 6 or 7 in the last decade. The most successful? Russell Gage and Noah Brown have multiple top 60 fantasy finishes, while Donovan Peoples-Jones was the WR36 before being off fantasy rosters faster than you could say his name. Sure Antonio Brown was a sixth round pick way back in 2010 but he is very much the exception rather than the rule. I would avoid drafting these guys outside very deep leagues where Demario Douglas, Braxton Berrios and Trey Palmer are considered fantasy assets.

Undrafted rookies

By my last count, there are nearly 100 undrafted rookie wide receivers on NFL rosters right now. Should you be drafting them? Well, no. While Adam Thielen, Robbie Chosen, Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne have made their way onto fantasy rosters after going undrafted, the odds of you correctly picking the right rookie is negligible. Even in 32-team leagues, I’ll be leaving these players on waivers.