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Ah, do you smell that in the air? No, it’s not the sweet hoppy smell of the IPAs flowing at Urban Meyer’s Pint House. No, that’s the smell of Football Sunday… and the smell of torn tendons and pulled hammys. That’s gotta hurt! Still probably can’t hurt as bad as I’m sure many of you out there in the ether are with depleted rosters. God bless the poor souls playing Davis Mills this week. You will be in my prayers. 

Anyway, let’s dive into this week’s injury headlines hot off the presses!

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There were some epic battles between Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier back in the 1970s including the “Thrilla in Manilla” and “The Fight of the Century”. We had the Ali vs George Foreman “Rumble in the Jungle” and the Foreman vs Mike Tyson “Ear Biting” match. Iconic slugfests that will forever be remembered in boxing history. Well, football fans all over the world were treated to a different kind of heavyweight slugfest in last night’s kickoff to the 2021 NFL season.

The NFL schedule makers gave us all a treat by scheduling two of the most high-powered offenses in football in the Thursday Night Football season opener. The Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers got to kick us off by playing host to the Dallas Cowboys in a game that brought us all the jabs, crosses and uppercuts that we remember from those iconic heavyweight boxing matches. Coming into the game, we had a superstar showdown of 44 year old Tom Brady facing off against Dak Prescott who was 11 months removed from being carted off the field with a sideways ankle. The star power was abundant on both sides, and neither side disappointed in a game that hit 60 points and made a lot of fantasy football managers happy.

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Cornerbacks Games in Shadow Coverage PPG Allowed Games Under 10 PPG Top 24 WRs Faced Y/SNP
James Bradberry 9 8.6 5 5 0.75
Carlton Davis 8 9.4 5 4 1.37
Darius Slay 7 13.6 3 4 1.53
Jalen Ramsey 5 13.5 2 5 0.53
Bradley Roby 5 10.9 3 2 0.72
Patrick Peterson 5 13.4 2 4 1.05
William Jackson 5 6.2 3 2 1.07
Isaac Yiadom 5 8.2 3 0 1.2
Malcolm Butler 5 7.9 3 3 1.36
Jaire Alexander 4 9.6 2 3 0.64
Tre’Davious White 4 9.5 2 1 0.94
Stephon Gilmore 4 8.2 2 2 1.01
Janoris Jenkins 4 9.1 3 1 1.17
J.C. Jackson 4 21.8 2 1 1.23
Xavien Howard 4 11.3 1 2 1.25
Marshon Lattimore 4 10 2 4 1.27

Chart Key

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The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 17

Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 23
2 13
3 13
4+ 29
Grand Total 78

Team: Dallas Cowboys

Opponent: New York Giants

WR1: Amari Cooper

Shadow Coverage Matchup: James Bradberry

Amari Cooper vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 31 5.6 77.6 0.5 13.3
Vs. Shadow Coverage 15 4.4 57.5 0.4 10.3
vs. James Bradberry 1 2 23 0 3.3

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Amari Cooper’s performance vs. shadow coverage has been ok vs. shadow coverage posting 10 PPG in .5 PPR since 2018. However, it is important to point out he has failed to hit double digits in 8 games while failing to hit 6 points in 7 of those contests. This low floor tends to make Cooper more of a boom or bust prospect when facing notable shadow corners.

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Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 20
2 11
3 11
4+ 29
Grand Total 71

Team: Detroit Lions

Opponent: Tennessee Titans

WR1: Marvin Jones

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Malcom Butler

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Marvin Jones vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All other opponents 31 4.4 56.7 0.6 11.5
Vs. Shadow Coverage 4 4.3 48.8 0.3 8.5
Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 18
2 9
3 11
4+ 28
Grand Total 66

 

Team: Arizona Cardinals

Opponent: New York Giants

WR1: DeAndre Hopkins

Shadow Coverage Matchup: James Bradberry

 

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 27 7.4 96.3 0.4 16
Vs. Shadow Coverage 19 6.5 73.8 0.6 14.1
vs. James Bradberry 1 5 41 0 6.6
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Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 13
2 7
3 7
4+ 25
Grand Total 52

 

Team: Houston Texans

Opponent: New England Patriots

WR1: Will Fuller

Shadow Coverage Matchup:  Stephon Gilmore

 

Will Fuller vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 23 4.8 70.5 0.5 12.6
Vs. Shadow Coverage 4 3 45 0.3 7.5

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

As we discussed in prior articles Will Fuller hasn’t seen much shadow coverage in his career due to DeAndre Hopkins. However, when he has seen it over the past two and a half seasons there is a notable dip. This includes a 1-8 performance vs. the Patriots just last season. In 2020 Will Fuller has shined in his new role, and was able to find the end zone in his lone shadow coverage matchup securing 3-35-1 vs. Jaire Alexander in week 7

Week 11 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

With Stephon Gilmore nursing a bump knee it is fair to question of effective he will be slowing down Will Fuller. This season Gilmore has only shadowed one elite WR all season which was D.K. Metcalf in week 2. Metcalf did get loose for a long TD finishing with 4-92-1 on the day. I do believe Gilmore will be able to slow down Fuller, but playing at home with no David Johnson, Watson will be expect to throw a lot in week 11.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $7,100 / DK $6,900

On both sites Will Fuller is priced as a WR1 and will cost you well over 10% of your budget. This makes him a DFS fade as his best performance to date in shadow coverage was 11 points which won’t get it done in DFS. Players I would pivot to include Kenny Golladay vs. CAR and Diontae Johnson vs. JAX

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Team: Washington Football Team

Opponent: Detroit Lions

WR1: Terry McLaurin

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Desmond Trufant

 

Terry McLaurin vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 15 4.9 72.7 0.5 12.5
Vs. Shadow Coverage 7 5 74.3 0.4 12.5

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

So far in 2020 Terry McLaurin has gotten it done vs. Shadow coverage finishing as a WR1 in 2/3 contests. However, in week 2 vs. Arizona it wasn’t until the Washington Football Team was down 3 scores late when McLaurin to finally got his production. Last week vs. James Bradberry McLaurin’s final line looks strong with 7-115-1, but his 68-yard TD came from the slot on a play where 3 Giants defenders missed a tackle. Now making plays isn’t a bad thing and there is 4 quarters in football no matter what so production is production.

Week 9 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

It took almost all season, but the Lions finally have a CB they can use as a shadow corner. Offseason acquisition Desmond Trufant is finally healthy and was tasked to shadow Adam Thielen holding him to 2-38 on 5 targets. The Lions were one of the top teams in using shadow coverage the prior two seasons, so we should expect this trend to continue. McLaurin has been great all year, but I don’t expect the Lions offense to put up points in bunches which means McLaurin might not have the best game flow to dominate this week.

DFS Recommendation – Price FanDuel (FD) $7,000 / Draft Kings (DK) $6,800

On FD McLaurin is priced as a top 15 option and with both offenses not expected to light it up this week I would look elsewhere. Players on FD I would pivot to include Robert Woods vs. SEA and Allen Robinson vs. MIN. On DK McLaurin is getting the love he deserves being priced as a top 10 option. However, this week player should pivot away as both Robert Woods and Allen Robinson should have better matchups.

Team: New York Giants

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Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

Opponent: Houston Texans

WR1: D.J. Chark

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Bradley Roby

 

D.J. Chark vs. Shadow Coverage

Opponent

Games

Rec

Yards

TDs

PPG

All Other Opponents

18

4.9

66.8

0.6

12.8

Vs. Shadow Coverage

3

3.7

32.3

0.0

5.1

Vs. Houston Texans

3

4.7

34.3

0.3

7.8

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

It has been a tough go of it for D.J. Chark when he has faced shadow coverage in his young career only averaging 5.1 PPG. This includes a matchup earlier this season vs. Bradley Roby where he only secured 3 receptions for 16 yards. This production came on a day when Gardner Minshew threw for 301 yards and 2 scores. Dating back to last season Chark has yet to get over 50 yards or score in a game when he faces shadow coverage.

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Team: Minnesota Vikings

Opponent: Green Bay Packers

WR1: Adam Thielen

Shadow Coverage Matchup: Jaire Alexander

Adam Thielen vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 26 5.4 66.4 0.6 12.8
Vs. Shadow Coverage 8 5.8 82.4 0.9 16.4
Vs. Jaire Alexander 2 7 117.5 1.5 24.3

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Adam Thielen has been one of the best WRs when facing shadow coverage throughout his career. This includes three great performances in 2020 vs. Jaire Alexander in week 1 (6-110-2), Bradley Roby in week 4 (8-114-1) and A.J. Terrell (3-51-1). Now I am not going to sit here and say this is the murderers row of cornerbacks, but even before 2020 Thielen has been very consistent when facing shadow coverage which is reflected in his 16.4 PPG.

Season Long Recommendation – Start

To say Adam Thielen has Jaire Alexander’s number is an understatement. In 2 career games in his coverage Thielen has dominated him securing 7 – 117.5 – 1.5 while averaging a robust 24.3 PPG. This game will be in Lambeau and early indication is it will be cold and windy. This will be the first time Thielen will face Alexander in shadow coverage on the road so maybe another 20 point performance is out of the question. That being said, with Green Bay 6-point favorites the expectation is the Vikings will need to throw early and often to keep up. That is why Thielen is a must start season long player.

DFS – Price FD $7,700 / DK $7,200

Adam Thielen is rated as a top 5 WR on both sites meaning he will need to have another monster game to return value for you in week 8. His historical production vs. Alexander suggests that he could do it again, but in 2/3 games in Green Bay he has been held under 100 yards and had zero touchdowns. Call it a hunch but Thielen might be a DFS fade this week on the road. Players I would pivot to include A.J Brown vs. CIN and Tyreek Hill vs. NYJ.

Please, blog, may I have some more?