Nobody saw it coming in August, but the NFL game of the year is this weekend between the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens. Apparently, nobody at the NFL offices noticed as two week ago either as they kept it on the noon slate. We have detailed these teams throughout the season and touched on the Ravens now elite defense in last week’s article.

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While B_Don is off gallivanting in Europe, Donkey is joined by special guest and current RazzBowl leader, Mike Beers of RotoViz. Beers elaborates on his best ball and RazzBowl draft strategy as well as his in season RazzBowl management. Then the guys discuss several of Mike’s RazzBowl players and what the future might hold for each: Derrick Henry, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, George Kittle and Keke Coutee.

Later in the waiver wire segment (24:55), Beers tears into Donkey Teeth’s Top 5 waiver adds heading into week 13. Players in consideration for a pickup this week include Rashaad Penny, A.J. Brown, Bo Scarbrough, Benny Snell and Randall Cobb. Tune in now and discover what RazzBowl dreams are made of!

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A quick google search tells me there’s only three predators capable of killing a Jaguar. The first is the anaconda—that big ass snake from the Jon Voight movie. The second is the caiman—these little gator looking guys in Mexico and South America. And the third, of course, is Derrick Henry—which makes sense because he looks a lot like a Predator. In week 13 last year, Henry took 17 carries for 238 yards and 4 touchdowns. I remember that game well because I was required to attend a 2.5 hour holiday lights trolley tour on that Thursday night which, to my surprise, turned out to be much more pleasant than watching Derrick Henry destroy my fantasy hopes and dreams before the week even started. Fast forward around 12 months, if you were playing against The Predator this week then I hope you also had a long Sunday afternoon holiday light trolley tour to attend. Henry rumbled for 159 yards on 19 carries plus another 16 yards on 1 reception and 2 touchdowns—he has 10 touchdowns on the season and is now under protest by PETA for his crimes against Jaguars.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw during yesterday’s late games in fantasy football:

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Julio Jones is always a costly receiving option. In the past seven weeks though, he has underperformed based on his expensive price point. Three catches for 79 yards against the Saints was fine, I guess. Six catches for 91 last week would have been awesome for a DFS WR3 option. But for Julio, this just doesn’t cut it for me.

This is exactly the reason why I hope he doesn’t get taken by the other CLUELESS daily fantasy players that don’t read my almighty advice before each Sunday. Those same people that didn’t read my advice on the Josh Allen-John Brown stack, or Zeke’s bounce-back performance, or Kyle Rudolph’s minimally-priced game last week. Sigh. Some people will never learn.

Here are the top value picks, alongside Julio, for DFS this week.

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Well, we have come to the end of this column for the 2019 season. All good things must end. And hopefully you feel this one is good enough to make a return for the 2020 season. Of course, there have been some hits and misses, everyone has them. It is just important to own both of them. Don’t prop yourself up over one big hit. And also, don’t tear yourself down over a big miss. This is the key to staying sane in a world of fantasy where so many want to come at you for one perceived slight or another.

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Patrick Mahomes made his triumphant return to the Chiefs’ lineup on Sunday and he did not disappoint. On his first throw he didn’t look like he was moving around very well and threw what looked like an interception, but it ended up getting overturned to a completion. After that, he looked like the same ol’ Patty. Andy Reid was not at all shy about his usage either. Mahomes attempted 50 passes and completed 36 of them for 446 yards and 3 touchdowns.

It really helps to have Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to throw to. Tyreek Hill saw a remarkable 19 targets and caught 11 of them for 157 yards and a touchdown. Travis Kelce caught all 7 of his targets for 75 yards. Mecole Hardman absolutely turned on the burners for his 63 yard touchdown catch. Having two of the fastest wide receivers in the league is paying off for the Chief’s offense. Unfortunately, we have the Chief’s defense, and we also have the turnover prone running backs on this roster. While Damien Williams did reach over 100 total yards, he had a costly fumble that might have put him in the doghouse with Andy Reid. I’m not quite sure what his other options are though.

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I have been following a simple metric this season for running backs: weighted opportunities (WO) per game. This summer I found that WO/g correlated strongly with fantasy points (FP) per game with an R2 of 0.88 based off 2018 numbers. Granted, this was a small sample size of only 1 year but it’s all the data I had.

In a nutshell, the idea is that players should have a FP/WO ratio of about 1, and if they are above that they are either very efficient or lucky (probably via TDs). If they are below that number, the inverse is assumed. In that piece I identified 4 backs that looked like strong buys this offseason, so let’s see if FP/WO helped.

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Remember when in-season trades never happened in the NFL? That was so, so, so long ago. This season we have had several notable players moved ranging from all-pro defensive backs to noted aerospace engineers (Josh Dobbs). However, the trade of Emmanuel Sanders has opened the opportunity for Courtland Sutton to continue his rise to fantasy glory. Sutton had already made a second-year jump prior to the trade and is currently sitting as the WR12 in half-PPR leagues. Sutton’s metrics support his rise to prominence with his player profiler athletic comparison being Alshon Jeffrey. He is 9th in weighted opportunities, top 20 in air yards, and top 20 in targets per game. His quarterback already stinks out loud so any mid-season change to a rookie, if Drew Lock were to get healthy, should have a minimal effect on his rest of season play. Expect the Denver Broncos to remain generally pesky as they fulfill a 5-6 win team destiny, and their air game to funnel through Courtland Sutton for the remainder of the 2019 season.

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It’s a well known fact: Ezekiel Elliott has an insatiable appetite. The star running back has been begging anyone and everyone to feed him since all the way back to Pop Warner, but the hunger has never subsided. This past September the Cowboys finally broke down and gave Zeke a little grocery money of his own. But the Dallas RB hasn’t been able to locate the Whole Foods Market in his neighborhood and continues to ask for handouts. Fortunately, his best bud Dak Prescott (21/27 for 239 yards, 5 carries for 30 yards and 2 touchdowns) continues to be charitable, feeding Zeke the pigskin 22 times for 111 yards plus another 6 thru the air for 36 more yards and his 6th touchdown as the Cowboys trounced the Eagles on Sunday night. Watch those fingers Dak! Anyway, here’s what else I saw during yesterday’s late games in fantasy football: 

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The so-called “toilet bowl” was… actually pretty exciting.

The fashion in which the Dolphins lost to the Redskins last week was absolutely hilarious. The poor guys played their hearts out in what may have been their lone realistic shot to win a game all season long and actually put themselves in a position to come from behind and tie up the game.

And then they came literally nowhere close to converting the game-winning opportunity as opposed to forcing OT. Oh well. Such is life for a Miami Dolphin. Why they’re continuing to roll with Ryan Fitzpatrick is an entirely different discussion.

The other thing that came out of this game was a fantastic performance from Terry McLaurin, a name featured in a good amount of winning daily fantasy lineups despite his questionable availability heading into the game. Hopefully, we’ll be able to find the Scary Terry’s of Week 7 in this week’s DFS Guide.

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