What wide receiver stats really matter? If you scroll through Twitter on any given day you will see a plethora of numbers backing up sleepers, busts and “league winners” among other things. For WRs you’ve got YAC stans, yards/target pushers, market share aficionados and everywhere in between. It’s easy to get excited when you see that a certain player had 25 yards/reception and is in line for increased targets the next year!

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B_Don and Donkey Teeth are back to review DT’s dynasty WR rankings. The guys begin the show by discussing some shows that they’ve been watching, and make some recommendations to pass the time. Side note: Grey’s wardrobe trend has him somewhere in between Elvis Costello, Cam Newton, and The Tiger King.  

After the quarantine talk, we get into Donkey’s WR rankings (links below). DT walks us through is ranking process and how he values some of the various dynasty attributes (talent, situation, league format, etc.). B_Don asks DT about the TB duo of Evans and Godwin, and whether they can sustain this type of production from 2019. I ask why DT hates Juju and how to handle a couple of third year WRs in Michael Gallup and Calvin Ridley. 

 

1-20 Dynasty WRs

21-40 Dynasty WRs

41-60 Dynasty WRs

61-80 Dynasty WRs

 

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The back end of my WR rankings for 2020 include some crushes that I hoped would have generated some buzz at the combine but didn’t, plus one athletic freak that caught everyone’s eye but I still have doubts about. 

In the pre-combine top 30 rookie wide receiver rankings I laid out the key factors I was looking for and why I ranked the players where I did. As a follow up I am now adjusting based on new information such as body mass index (BMI), athletic testing and overall post-combine buzz coming out of Indianapolis. 

There was a lot of movement within the WR rankings because so many players are very close and small details can cause big ripples. I did penalize the players who did not run at the combine because I think in a class so tight, that will matter on draft day, impacting projected draft round.  

A Word About BMI

Numberfire ran a nice study in 2015 and their conclusion was “If we’re talking absolute, elite production, your best bet is more than likely a tall wide receiver, and a heavy one, too.” The correlation was fairly weak, but in general bigger WRs had more success. The study found that the average BMI for WRs that scored 10+ touchdowns was 27.09 and the average BMI declined in groups with less touchdowns. While that was from 2015, this past season saw 10 of the top 12 WR finishers in points per game had a BMI of >26.5 and 7 of them had a BMI >27.

Only DJ Chark (24.1) came in under 26.  I don’t think it’s linear, as in a 28 BMI is better than a 26.5, but I do think a threshold is probably needed. Most WRs at the combine hit at least 26 because that’s just the typical pool of NFL players. This year is odd because the top 2 consensus WRs did not register a 26, but draft capital cures a lot of ills. The lesser known players that didn’t get to 26 got dinged for me because their draft slot was already tenuous. 

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Welcome to Stat-o-Matic where we will look at some advanced stats around the NFL. As a disclaimer, I am using this space to play around with some numbers and present some interesting findings. But, by no means is this validated or predictive data. I hope that it will lead to meaningful discoveries or it could inspire you to go down your own rabbit hole. We’re going to explore together, crunch some numbers and see what pops out. Stats courtesy of PlayerProfiler.com.

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Turkey day provided some… interesting football. David Blough was Joe Montana. The matchup between the third string quarterback-led Lions and the dismal Bears hit the over in total points, because of course it would. The Cowboys got completely stymied by the Bills. Younghoe Koo turned out to have the touch of Pelé in a close comeback effort.

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Nobody saw it coming in August, but the NFL game of the year is this weekend between the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens. Apparently, nobody at the NFL offices noticed as two week ago either as they kept it on the noon slate. We have detailed these teams throughout the season and touched on the Ravens now elite defense in last week’s article.

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Julio Jones is always a costly receiving option. In the past seven weeks though, he has underperformed based on his expensive price point. Three catches for 79 yards against the Saints was fine, I guess. Six catches for 91 last week would have been awesome for a DFS WR3 option. But for Julio, this just doesn’t cut it for me.

This is exactly the reason why I hope he doesn’t get taken by the other CLUELESS daily fantasy players that don’t read my almighty advice before each Sunday. Those same people that didn’t read my advice on the Josh Allen-John Brown stack, or Zeke’s bounce-back performance, or Kyle Rudolph’s minimally-priced game last week. Sigh. Some people will never learn.

Here are the top value picks, alongside Julio, for DFS this week.

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If you didn’t watch the game last night and just peak at the final score, you would think that there was plenty of fantasy goodness that went on last night. Nothing is more frustrating than needing fantasy points on MNF and the offensive game play being sub-par, especially when the over hits. But also, nothing makes you feel as alive going into Monday night up 5 points with Chris Carson left and your opponent has Jimmy Garappollo and somehow, you pull it off without a sweat to get to 9-1. Rarely is luck on my side, but it seems to be in my big auction league this season.

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A clash between defenses surrendering the 2nd (TB) and 6th (SEA) most receiving yards per game carries the highest point total for week 9.

Per NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Jameis Winston ranks #1 in average completed air yards and #1 in average intended air yards. Winston and Head Coach Bruce Arians offense likes to push the ball down field. Tied for 3rd in the NFL in completed passes over 40 yards, Jameis gets his shot against a Seahawks defense that ranks tied-for-10th in most completed passes allowed over 20+ yards. Despite his league leading 12 interceptions, Jameis Winston is a viable starter in all formats. Jameis is Rudy’s projected QB6 in week 10.

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As trade season is approaching it’s end in fantasy leagues, so too is this post in it’s current iteration. For the next two weeks, I am going to focus on players to buy in preparation for the playoffs. Now is the time to get your rosters set. Looking at who you will want to have moving forward is a big key to success in the playoffs. Let’s take a look at a few of those players who could help you reach the final goal. The goal of winning that cash or bragging rights.

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