Welcome to Stat-o-Matic where we will look at some advanced stats around the NFL. As a disclaimer, I am using this space to play around with some numbers and present some interesting findings. But, by no means is this validated or predictive data. I hope that it will lead to meaningful discoveries or it could inspire you to go down your own rabbit hole. We’re going to explore together, crunch some numbers and see what pops out. Stats courtesy of PlayerProfiler.com.

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Turkey day provided some… interesting football. David Blough was Joe Montana. The matchup between the third string quarterback-led Lions and the dismal Bears hit the over in total points, because of course it would. The Cowboys got completely stymied by the Bills. Younghoe Koo turned out to have the touch of Pelé in a close comeback effort.

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Nobody saw it coming in August, but the NFL game of the year is this weekend between the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens. Apparently, nobody at the NFL offices noticed as two week ago either as they kept it on the noon slate. We have detailed these teams throughout the season and touched on the Ravens now elite defense in last week’s article.

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Julio Jones is always a costly receiving option. In the past seven weeks though, he has underperformed based on his expensive price point. Three catches for 79 yards against the Saints was fine, I guess. Six catches for 91 last week would have been awesome for a DFS WR3 option. But for Julio, this just doesn’t cut it for me.

This is exactly the reason why I hope he doesn’t get taken by the other CLUELESS daily fantasy players that don’t read my almighty advice before each Sunday. Those same people that didn’t read my advice on the Josh Allen-John Brown stack, or Zeke’s bounce-back performance, or Kyle Rudolph’s minimally-priced game last week. Sigh. Some people will never learn.

Here are the top value picks, alongside Julio, for DFS this week.

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If you didn’t watch the game last night and just peak at the final score, you would think that there was plenty of fantasy goodness that went on last night. Nothing is more frustrating than needing fantasy points on MNF and the offensive game play being sub-par, especially when the over hits. But also, nothing makes you feel as alive going into Monday night up 5 points with Chris Carson left and your opponent has Jimmy Garappollo and somehow, you pull it off without a sweat to get to 9-1. Rarely is luck on my side, but it seems to be in my big auction league this season.

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A clash between defenses surrendering the 2nd (TB) and 6th (SEA) most receiving yards per game carries the highest point total for week 9.

Per NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Jameis Winston ranks #1 in average completed air yards and #1 in average intended air yards. Winston and Head Coach Bruce Arians offense likes to push the ball down field. Tied for 3rd in the NFL in completed passes over 40 yards, Jameis gets his shot against a Seahawks defense that ranks tied-for-10th in most completed passes allowed over 20+ yards. Despite his league leading 12 interceptions, Jameis Winston is a viable starter in all formats. Jameis is Rudy’s projected QB6 in week 10.

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As trade season is approaching it’s end in fantasy leagues, so too is this post in it’s current iteration. For the next two weeks, I am going to focus on players to buy in preparation for the playoffs. Now is the time to get your rosters set. Looking at who you will want to have moving forward is a big key to success in the playoffs. Let’s take a look at a few of those players who could help you reach the final goal. The goal of winning that cash or bragging rights.

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You just knew Eddie’s kick wasn’t going to go in too right? It didn’t matter that it was only a 41-yard kick. You see, the Bears are kind of like the Buccaneers when it comes to the kicking game. The kicking game is cursed. Once Pineiro hit the upright in the first half, any kick that was going to be important didn’t stand a chance. It was in Eddie’s head, it was in the crowd’s head, and it was in my head at home. 

I was watching the game with a good buddy who is a Bears fan and it was completely quiet for most of the drive. The only thing that was said the whole drive was by him. He just kept repeating, “Why aren’t they going for a touchdown? They need to go for a touchdown, you can’t leave it up to the kicker.” He was right. We all were right. Here is what else I saw during the early slate of games on Sunday.

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The NFL year goes by so fast and the fantasy football season with it. As we approach the halfway point of 2019, I plan to spend next week’s article with a blurb on the second half outlook of each team, or player from each team, from a data point perspective. For this week though we stick with the norm of finding trends and in-week matchups we can expose. Hope everyone has a great finish to the first half of the fantasy season!

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Remember BenJarvus Green-Ellis? Barely, right? At least the Law Firm nickname was choice. Do you also (not) recall he debuted more than a decade ago in 2008 and subsequently he was out of the league by 2013? Five year career for a running back sounds about right. So with that short time to make it, let’s just agree to never adversely judge a running back for trying to get paid, you know? Anyhoo, the pickings have become slim in Free Agents adds by this week; but unless this is your first year playing you were prepared for this scenario and spent most of your money already.

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