Does Shadow Coverage matter…..I mean I hope so I just spent the whole year writing about it, but instead of just hoping it does let’s take a look at 2020. Just an FYI if we find out it doesn’t, I just want to say I can’t wait to try something new here at the great company of Razzball in 2021.

The first thing we should do is review the data of all the wide receivers we wrote about in are articles weeks 1- 17 weeks. Granted not all these players ended up seeing shadow coverage, but it is important to look at the players who we typically think will see shadow coverage week in and week out. Later on we will review PFF’s shadow coverage matchups to see the overall impact shadow coverage had in 2020, but for now let’s dive into the weekly finishes of the players we tracked this season.

<

Please, blog, may I have some more?

“I’m just here so I won’t get fined”, “I’m just ’bout that action boss” and “Yea”. Seattle Seahawks fans know these famous quotes very well; they are from fan favorite Marshawn Lynch. To this day I still use “I’m just here so I won’t get fined” when I’m stuck going somewhere I don’t want to be (like the time my wife dragged me to look at wedding invitations on a football Sunday!). It comes as no surprise, that when Marshawn was asked after the Seahawks’ wildcard win last season about the performance of his rookie teammate DK Metcalf, he had another “Lynch-ism” to share with the media. When asked what impresses him most about DK Metcalf, Lynch responded with “That he a big ass dude who can move like that”. Classic Beast Mode! 

If you remember back to last year’s off season, there was a ton of buzz at the NFL combine about Ole Miss wide receiver DK Metcalf. All the social media buzz was shirtless pictures showing what a massive human being he was, not only being completely JACKED, but having abs that the Sigma Alpha Epsilon bros could crush beer cans on! At 6’3″ and 230 lbs, this Goliath of a human, who was built like a linebacker instead of a wide receiver, went out there and ran a 4.33 40-yard dash, displayed a 40.5 inch vertical and did 27 reps on the bench press – the most reps by a wide receiver since Greg Little did 27 back in 2011! The NFL Network was comparing this man to Batman – a superhero!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

What wide receiver stats really matter? If you scroll through Twitter on any given day you will see a plethora of numbers backing up sleepers, busts and “league winners” among other things. For WRs you’ve got YAC stans, yards/target pushers, market share aficionados and everywhere in between. It’s easy to get excited when you see that a certain player had 25 yards/reception and is in line for increased targets the next year!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

B_Don and Donkey Teeth are back to review DT’s dynasty WR rankings. The guys begin the show by discussing some shows that they’ve been watching, and make some recommendations to pass the time. Side note: Grey’s wardrobe trend has him somewhere in between Elvis Costello, Cam Newton, and The Tiger King.  

After the quarantine talk, we get into Donkey’s WR rankings (links below). DT walks us through is ranking process and how he values some of the various dynasty attributes (talent, situation, league format, etc.). B_Don asks DT about the TB duo of Evans and Godwin, and whether they can sustain this type of production from 2019. I ask why DT hates Juju and how to handle a couple of third year WRs in Michael Gallup and Calvin Ridley. 

 

1-20 Dynasty WRs

21-40 Dynasty WRs

41-60 Dynasty WRs

61-80 Dynasty WRs

 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The back end of my WR rankings for 2020 include some crushes that I hoped would have generated some buzz at the combine but didn’t, plus one athletic freak that caught everyone’s eye but I still have doubts about. 

In the pre-combine top 30 rookie wide receiver rankings I laid out the key factors I was looking for and why I ranked the players where I did. As a follow up I am now adjusting based on new information such as body mass index (BMI), athletic testing and overall post-combine buzz coming out of Indianapolis. 

There was a lot of movement within the WR rankings because so many players are very close and small details can cause big ripples. I did penalize the players who did not run at the combine because I think in a class so tight, that will matter on draft day, impacting projected draft round.  

A Word About BMI

Numberfire ran a nice study in 2015 and their conclusion was “If we’re talking absolute, elite production, your best bet is more than likely a tall wide receiver, and a heavy one, too.” The correlation was fairly weak, but in general bigger WRs had more success. The study found that the average BMI for WRs that scored 10+ touchdowns was 27.09 and the average BMI declined in groups with less touchdowns. While that was from 2015, this past season saw 10 of the top 12 WR finishers in points per game had a BMI of >26.5 and 7 of them had a BMI >27.

Only DJ Chark (24.1) came in under 26.  I don’t think it’s linear, as in a 28 BMI is better than a 26.5, but I do think a threshold is probably needed. Most WRs at the combine hit at least 26 because that’s just the typical pool of NFL players. This year is odd because the top 2 consensus WRs did not register a 26, but draft capital cures a lot of ills. The lesser known players that didn’t get to 26 got dinged for me because their draft slot was already tenuous. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Welcome to Stat-o-Matic where we will look at some advanced stats around the NFL. As a disclaimer, I am using this space to play around with some numbers and present some interesting findings. But, by no means is this validated or predictive data. I hope that it will lead to meaningful discoveries or it could inspire you to go down your own rabbit hole. We’re going to explore together, crunch some numbers and see what pops out. Stats courtesy of PlayerProfiler.com.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Turkey day provided some… interesting football. David Blough was Joe Montana. The matchup between the third string quarterback-led Lions and the dismal Bears hit the over in total points, because of course it would. The Cowboys got completely stymied by the Bills. Younghoe Koo turned out to have the touch of Pelé in a close comeback effort.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Nobody saw it coming in August, but the NFL game of the year is this weekend between the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens. Apparently, nobody at the NFL offices noticed as two week ago either as they kept it on the noon slate. We have detailed these teams throughout the season and touched on the Ravens now elite defense in last week’s article.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Julio Jones is always a costly receiving option. In the past seven weeks though, he has underperformed based on his expensive price point. Three catches for 79 yards against the Saints was fine, I guess. Six catches for 91 last week would have been awesome for a DFS WR3 option. But for Julio, this just doesn’t cut it for me.

This is exactly the reason why I hope he doesn’t get taken by the other CLUELESS daily fantasy players that don’t read my almighty advice before each Sunday. Those same people that didn’t read my advice on the Josh Allen-John Brown stack, or Zeke’s bounce-back performance, or Kyle Rudolph’s minimally-priced game last week. Sigh. Some people will never learn.

Here are the top value picks, alongside Julio, for DFS this week.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

If you didn’t watch the game last night and just peak at the final score, you would think that there was plenty of fantasy goodness that went on last night. Nothing is more frustrating than needing fantasy points on MNF and the offensive game play being sub-par, especially when the over hits. But also, nothing makes you feel as alive going into Monday night up 5 points with Chris Carson left and your opponent has Jimmy Garappollo and somehow, you pull it off without a sweat to get to 9-1. Rarely is luck on my side, but it seems to be in my big auction league this season.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Copyright 2007 - 2021 Razzball LLC. All rights reserved. Razzball.com and the Razzball logo units are copyright Razzball LLC.
Site by Design & Develop


Notice: Trying to access array offset on value of type bool in /home/razzball/public_html/wp-content/plugins/audience-analytics-by-quantcast/audience-analytics.php on line 143
Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 23
2 13
3 14
4+ 31
Grand Total 81