Week 16 Starts and Sits: Win/Loss and Home/Road Players Splits

I’m on a roll. Not the kind you want to be on, mind: the one where even solid choices go awry.

One of my starts for Week 15, Cooper Kupp, seemed like a safe choice: he was projected for 13.37 PPR points, a mark he had bested every week since he returned from injury in Week 8 except for Week 13 against the Saints in New Orleans.

The Saints game was funny as there were four time-consuming drives that ate up about 24 of the 30 first-half minutes and yielded one field goal. Kupp was targeted four times on the first two Rams’ drives.

Then only twice the rest of the game. He wound up with 3 receptions for 17 yards.

Last Thursday, the weather report, even on game day, called for some minor rain. The over/under was 49.5 per ESPN BET.

It poured in the first half.

Kupp was targeted on Matthew Stafford’s first two passes and a third time on the Rams’ third drive. Then his night was done.

If you love games filled with punts and field goals with a turnover sprinkled in, go watch the game film. If not, skip it.

The Rams won a game where they possessed the ball for 35 minutes and Kyren Williams had 31 touches. They probably eliminated the 49ers from the playoffs for 2024.

I started Kupp where I had him. I had other options, but Kupp was my floor play. He had his first score of zero points in PPR in a game he started and finished since 2019.

I don’t defend myself. I explain my point of view.

My boss tells me he’s starting to field calls from NFL teams asking me not to feature their players as starts. I kid. Sort of.

On to Week 16, what should be the penultimate week for fantasy football. I won’t litigate that here. The NFL managed to put up 700 points in the 15 games played after the 18 scored in the first game. I share my thoughts on the Week 15 games through Sunday here: https://football.razzball.com/nfl-takeaways-week-15/

Keep in mind that for the first time this season, we have games on Saturday: Houston visits Kansas City at 1 p.m. EST and Pittsburgh visits Baltimore at 4:30 p.m. EST. Steelers-Ravens is often can’t miss football.

Let’s look at some starts among the players ranked as WR 3’s and flexes and players we might sit.

Be sure to check out the latest tools on Razzball.com: Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed | WR Slot vs. Wide| DEF Targets Allowed | Home vs. Away | Wins vs. Losses | TD Tool

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STARTS

 

Player: Jakobi Meyers

Team: Las Vegas Raiders

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 28

Spread: -1.0 vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Win/Loss: +1.3, W/L Index 110

Home/Road: +3.3, H/R Index 127

This line opened with the Raiders as slight underdogs. Then news came that Aidan O’Connell was trending toward playing in Week 16 and the Raiders are now slight favorites.

Aggregately, the Jaguars defense is bad. But they held the Vikings to 12 points and the Titans to 6 points in the last six weeks. Like all NFL teams, it’s a mixed bag.

I believe they’re talented enough to make this game a dogfight, if not a high-scoring one.

For the Raiders, they’re likely down to Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah as running backs. I think they’ll throw plenty, and the two favorite targets are Meyers and Brock Bowers.

Both had tough games on Monday with Desmond Ridder under center. I think things will be better for both with O’Connell.

Meyers lines up all over the formation. Most of his production comes out wide, but Jacksonville has given up the fifth most points to all wide receivers they’ve faced in the last six weeks.

Our projection for Meyers is 12.94 PPR points. He has hit this 6 times in the last 8 games with only 1 touchdown. I’m betting Sunday will be 7 in 9.                                                                                                                                                                   

 

Player: Jordan Addison

Team: Minnesota Vikings

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: RB 25

Spread: -3.0 at Seattle Seahawks

Win/Loss: +2.9, W/L Index 124

Home/Road: +0.9, H/R Index 107

This will be interesting. The Vikings are in a dogfight for the number one seed in the NFC while the Seahawks are trying to stay alive for the NFC West title and the playoffs.

Seattle has been very good against wide receivers in the last six weeks: 6^th overall, 3^rd vs wideouts. But they have given up 9 touchdowns in that time and four of the six games have been intra-divisional.

For Addison, W/L is favorable and the Vikings are favored; H/R slightly favors Addison at home, but not enough to fade him. With 54 targets in his last 7 games, Addison is seeing the ball the most in his NFL career to date, and he has 6 TD receptions in that time. He’s had 2 top-12, 2 top-24, and one top-30 wide receiver ranks in that time.

His RazzballNFL projection is 12.97 PPR points. I believe he gets that and more.

 

Player: Drake London

Team: Atlanta Falcons

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 26

Spread: -8.5 vs New York Giants

Win/Loss: +0.5, W/L Index 104

Home/Road: +5.1, H/R Index 149

There are reasons this could bite me: the Giants are terrible against the run, Bijan Robinson could have 200+ yards from scrimmage, and the Falcons may play this conservatively with a rookie QB, Michael Penix, making his first NFL start.

I’d feel worse if Atlanta was not in the playoff hunt and I’m not sure the Falcons can blow out the Giants. I think before the Falcons can put this game on autopilot if they can at all, London will have made our 12.96 PPR point projection. The Giants are competent against the pass from a yardage standpoint, but they’ve still given up 19 receiving TDs in 14 games.

 

 

SITS

 

Player: DK Metcalf

Team: Seattle Seahawks

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 30

Spread: +3.5 vs Minnesota Vikings

Win/Loss: +0.5, W/L Index 103

Home/Road: -3.6, H/R Index 76

W/L is neutral and H/R is leading toward a fade as DK has had a higher PPR PPG average on the road. Metcalf has not boomed since Week 7 and has been unreliable since Week 4. He’s currently wide receiver 33 in PPR for 2024.

He’s still 22^nd in WR targets even though Jaxon Smith-Njigba has taken over as Seattle’s target leader.

But against Green Bay in Week 14 his targets fell to 3 as Geno Smith and Sam Howell were sacked seven times in 40 dropbacks. Geno left the game after hurting his knee, and as is often the case with backups, Howell was shown no mercy in relief.

Metcalf still pops up on the Seahawks injury report due to a shoulder injury suffered in Week 12. He hasn’t missed time due to it, but it cannot have helped his performance.

It’s possible Howell will get the start this week with Geno ailing. While he’s mobile, he was prone to sacks when he was in Washington. The Vikings have a pass rush that’s at least on par with Green Bay’s. Minnesota’s secondary is less (only five teams have allowed more points to wideouts in the last six weeks), but if the quarterback doesn’t have time to throw the ball, it doesn’t matter.

Our projection for DK is 12.61 PPR points for Week 16. He has only hit that twice since Week 4 and has been WR28 or higher every week since the Week 10 bye. I’m betting against this week being a get-right week.

 

 

Player: Calvin Ridley

Team: Tennessee Titans

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 32

Spread: +3.5 at Indianapolis Colts

Win/Loss: +2.4, W/L Index 121

Home/Road: -4.8, H/R Index 68

 Two of Ridley’s best 2024 games came with Mason Rudolph at QB and Rudolph will be back under center on Sunday.

W/L favors my stance, but H/R likes Ridley on the road. So why fade Ridley?

Ridley had an 8-target, 0-reception day vs Indianapolis in Nashville in Week 6 that cannot wholly be attributed to Will Levis being the QB.

The fact is the Colts have an above-average pass defense: 10^th for the season vs WRs and 3^rd best in the last six weeks (10^th vs wideouts where Ridley lines up 76% of the time). The Titans will be better off running the ball.

I do think Ridley is better off with Rudolph, but I’m not testing that against the Colts in Week 16. I think he falls under his 12.40 PPR point RazzballNFL projection.

 

Player: Michael Pittman Jr

Team: Indianapolis Colts

RazzballNFL PPR Rank: WR 23

Spread: -3.5 vs Tennessee Titans

Win/Loss: +2.1, W/L Index 118

Home/Road: -0.1, H/R Index 99

On the other side of the matchup, W/L favors Pittman playing as a favorite, and H/R is neutral on location. Tennessee is a favorable matchup against wide receivers in the last six weeks – 14^th overall, but 2^nd best for wideouts where Pittman lines up 79% of his snaps.

My concern for Pittman comes at a time when the Colts’ passing game has not been very good. Some of this can be attributed to Anthony Richardson, but since Week 4, Pittman has only two finishes at WR23 or better for the week.

Pittman was best in 2023 when peppered with targets and he has not had 10 or more targets in a game in 2024. Pittman’s last TD reception came in Week 6 in Nashville.

I don’t think there will be enough scoring to support a big game from Pittman. I think he’ll be under our 13.33 PPR point projection for the eighth time in nine games.

 

That’s a wrap on the column! Don’t forget to check out more fantasy goodness at Razzball.com. Follow me on Twitter/X @crewser128. Like and subscribe for more fantasy football content on YouTube @RazzballFantasy. Please leave questions, comments, and feedback below. Have a great Week 16  and I hope to see you for Championship Week!