I was working in the lab, late one night. When my eyes beheld an eerie sight. For my monster on his slab began to rise and suddenly to my surprise… He did the Mash. The Monster Mash

Just take these wise words in for a moment. Breathe them in. The monster… he did the mash. And don’t we all do the mash sometimes, much to the chagrin and sometimes excitement to our contemporaries? Yes, even sometimes it will truly be a “graveyard smash”. 

What was this section about? Oh uh Halloween injury report. Right. There was a thread here but I got carried away in the poetry of Bobby “Boris” Pickett & The Crypt Kickers (Side note: Here’s a great TV performance of Bobby Pickett doing the Monster Mash, a real masterclass in making really weird faces and being a weirdo).

The teams who will have some extra trick-or-treating time on bye this week are the Ravens and the Raiders. See ya next week! 

Let’s get into this week’s horror show!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

 

Ah yes. Week 7. It’s so easy to look over this slate of games and think: “huh. This seems like a boring week”. This might be partially influenced by watching superstars Teddy Bridgewater and Case Keenum face off in an extremely boring game in Cleveland. And listen, you’re probably right. The favorites might just sweep the board and we may experience the most lopsided and dull day in NFL history. But how many times have you really seen that EVER happen? That’s right, it’s always any given Sunday, baby. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

You know why you’re here. You’re either ready to have your delusions validated by the equally delusional or to become uncontrollably mad when your predictions are contradicted (how could that jackass say that about Taysom Hill?!).

You’re probably already a pretty savvy fantasy mind if you’ve meandered your way over here to the “MENSA of Fantasy Content”, RazzBall Incorporated. You’re no spring chicken, I’m sure and you probably have your own, unique homer-isms and biases when you sit down to draft. Unless you are a complete stat-junkie in hyper-competitive, ultra-high stakes fantasy competitions the odds are emotions play a role in your strategy.

They certainly do for me, I make no apologies for occasionally being an emotional idiot sports fan fantasy player and there are gut feelings that just pan out. Sometimes they can win you leagues and occasionally they tell you to draft Sixto Sanchez 1st overall in RazzSlam and end up on the fantasy baseball version of the no-fly list (meaning, I am now legally no longer an overweight white man with a beard). 

All that being said, some of these predictions are reasonable, backed up by stats, and truly plausible… and some might end me with me being “totally dunked on”, “owned”, “fired from writing your stupid articles, Skorish, for christ sakes these suck!”, etc., etc. 

These 4 bold predictions are going to be somewhat ordered from most likely to most ridiculous. 

So let’s get to it!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

When Is It Time To Officially Fade A Wide Receiver In Fantasy?

Whether it is dynasty or redraft understanding when the cliff typically comes for a fantasy asset is key to staying ahead of the game. What we did was review the last 10 seasons of wide receiver production by age to see when the drop off comes for wide receivers. A couple key nuggets that you need to know before we get started.

  1. The years sampled were 2011-2020 for the wide receiver position only.
  2. The analysis benchmark we will be discussing today is 100 targets. Every wide receiver ages 21-37 had to have at least 100 targets to qualify
  3. When conducting the analysis it was important to have a baseline for targets as many wide receivers who don’t make it typically only play 3-4 years in their early 20s. That means if you don’t have a target baseline in the analysis then you’re including a lot of young wide receivers who don’t pan out. This would prevent us from getting a better idea of how age becomes a factor since we want to identify the wide receivers who were able to sustain some level of relevance throughout the years

Like we always promise we will give you the high-level data first and you can take it for what it is worth. The first chart will include the wide receivers (WR) age, the average total fantasy points those wide receivers had at that age and the average points per game those wide receivers (PPG) had at that age.  If you want a deeper dive, we have included more information later in the article.

Reviewing Points and Points Per Game (PPG)

WR Age Points PPG
21 177.7 11.3
22 182.9 12
23 183.5 12
24 174.5 11.3
25 191.3 12.2
26 205.5 13.3
27 185.3 12
28 191 12.6
29 194.1 12.6
30 177.6 11.5
31 182.5 11.6
32 171.4 11.6
33 179.4 11.5
34 183.2 11.6
35 154.4 10.1
36 131.9 8.5
37 144.9 10.4

 

As you can see for the wide receiver position there is no major drop off. What we end up seeing is a lot of stability over the years. Wide receivers age 25-29 peak at age 26 but they remain stable up until their age 30 campaign. Meanwhile once they hit 30 instead of a steep decline, we find a slight drop in fantasy production, but it quickly stabilizes similarly to wide receivers in their late 20s. When you breakdown the production 25-29 vs. 30-34 wide receivers age 30-34 still produce at just over 92% in points and PPG vs. their late 20 counterparts.

Overall, only a few wide receivers make it to age 35 let alone reach 100 targets at that age. However, when they do, we can still see some level of production as they produce at roughly 75% vs. age 25-29.

Finally, the drop off isn’t as steep as we might have thought. This slight dip in production followed by a stability period does show that wide receivers in their early 30s who are still producing at a high level probably have a few more years left in the tank. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

In the last article we highlighted which NFC players have the most to gain if their current teams don’t draft a player at a similar position. In this article we will discuss which current AFC players have the most to gain in the upcoming NFL draft. What this means is if a team passes on a skill position player or quarterback in the first few round which players currently on those rosters today will have the most to gain.

Each section we will highlight the team, how many picks each team has overall, how many picks they have rounds 1-3 and the players who have the most to gain. This article isn’t a mock or predicting any picks. Most likely at least half of these players we talk about today will be impacted by draft picks, but just in case they aren’t here is why we think they can improve in 2021.

Baltimore Ravens
Total picks: 7
Round 1: No. 27 overall
Round 2: No. 58
Round 3: No. 104

Impacted Player: Marquise Brown

Marquise Brown turned it on in the second half of 2020 increasing his production in nearly every metric. This spike in production coincides with Mark Andrews missing time due to COVID. However, even after Andrews returned Brown was still producing at a high level. Below are his stats side by side before Andrews went out with Covid and after he returned. The 13.2 points per game (PPG) in those final 6 weeks (including playoffs) would have made Brown the wide receiver 15 in 2020. Brown’s current Best ball average draft position (ADP) is wide receiver 36.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The fantasy regular season is in the books and I already laid out rankings for the playoffs. So what else is there to do but look ahead into the crystal ball and see what 2021 could have in store. As always, this is not format specific but a general ranking based simply on who I’d rather see on my roster in 2021. I am happy to talk specifics in the comments, as the note section is not meant to be a thesis explaining the position of each ranking. 

I have included some choice rookies for 2021, although in all likelihood there will be more that make their way into the top 80 by season’s end. This year there are currently 5 rookies in the top 50 WR in fantasy points per game. With offenses using more 3 and 4 wide formations, rookies can get on the field early and often. Earning snaps is the biggest hurdle for most rookies but that is not as hard as it used to be when only 2 WRs were featured. Rookie receivers should continue to be assets even in redraft leagues, so I have been generous in my rankings with 2 rookies already in the top 36. 

Read all of the QB, RB and TE Razzball Rest of Season Positional Rankings now!

And without further ado… 

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It’s been awhile since T.Y. Hilton had Luck on his side. 23 months to be exact. Andrew Luck played his final NFL game on January 27th, 2019. Since that day, Hilton has played a total of 22 games. In that stretch he’s posted only one game of 100+ receiving yards (last week) and four games of 80+ receiving yards. Over the past three weeks he’s gone off for 81, 110 and 86 receiving yards–that’s right, three his four 80+ receiving yardage games from the past two seasons have come in the last three games. The hot streak culminated this Sunday as Hilton snagged 5 catches for 86 yards and his 3rd and 4th touchdowns. You guessed it, all four of those touchdowns have come in the past three weeks. The tide has finally started to turn T.Y.’s way, just in time for him to bring you home that coveted Wizard Phallus Championship Trophy. Wait, your league doesn’t have a Wizard Phallus Championship Trophy? How bout phallic pins for each championship you’ve won, which are pinned to your champions jacket in the prestigious pre-draft pinning ceremony? No? Well, I’m sure your championship will still be satisfying–almost as satisfying as my second penis pin. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday for fantasy football:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Your WR top 80 14.0 is here!  This is a playoff specific edition of the WR ranks, with extra weight given to the next 3 matchups specifically. Nothing matters but the path ahead so a few players jumped up because of their schedule. Additionally guys who are currently injured might as well be off the list, although some are straggling around like Kenny Golladay, but there is no guarantee he’ll suit up for our fantasy teams.  

This list is not league or format specific, but it is based on 2020 rest-of-season projection only. When thinking through tiers and rankings I asked myself simply – “all things considered who would I rather have on my roster?”

Read all of the QB, RB and TE Razzball Rest of Season Positional Rankings now!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Congratulations! If you’re reading this, I assume you made into your league’s playoff bracket. There’s not a lot of meat on the bone but hopefully you don’t need a ton of help from here on. However, if there are any holes to fill I might be able to help.

I group the adds by position and then within the position, rank them in order of preference. With the playoffs upon us, I have removed percentages of the FAAB. If you need any of these guys to start for your team, then spend what you need to spend. The sherpa will only advise players who are rostered in less than 50% of ESPN leagues.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Your WR top 80 13.0 is here!  Even though week 12 hasn’t ended yet, we’re on to the final countdown. If you’re 7-5 or better you can probably coast but a playoff seed may be on the line. If you’re rolling at 6-6 or in some leagues maybe even 5-7 this is do or die. Obviously “rest of season” doesn’t really mean much with one game left in the regular season but this is still a relative ranking of the best WRs in our game. As a rule, injuries will always bump guys down. I am generally pessimistic that players will return on time at full strength without a setback. 

This list is not league or format specific, but it is based on 2020 rest-of-season projection only. When thinking through tiers and rankings I asked myself simply – “all things considered who would I rather have on my roster?”

Read all of the QB, RB and TE Razzball Rest of Season Positional Rankings now!

Please, blog, may I have some more?