Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find some of those articles here:

Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 1

 Fantasy Points Per Reception – Wide Receiver Edition Part 1

In this article we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR positive regression candidates from 2020 at the tight end position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players who will potentially outkick their ADP in 2021.

A couple things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for tight ends over the past 10 seasons is 1.93. For a tight end to see one point more per game they need to average three receptions per game and see an increase in FPPR of .35.

 

2021 FPPR Positive Regression Candidates

Player: Gerald Everett

2020 FPPR: 1.66

Career avg. FPPR: 2.10

FPPR Variance: -21%

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Did you see what’s going on out in San Francisco? I’m sure you’ve seen, it’s a pretty big story; that crazy pandemic sex party involving 8 emus, 2 wild boars, a bunch of “little people” and a fountain of semen. True story. Oh, and the whole surrounding bay area is on fire causing extremely poor air quality which has put the Cardinals and 49ers game in jeopardy of being postponed. Besides the tragedy of people’s homes burning down, I also own Kyler Murray on 49 of my 50 fantasy teams. So I’m not crazy about this developing story. I mean the fires story, the sex party stuff was actually kind of intriguing. So stay safe if you’re out west and keep tabs on the status of the Cardinals/49ers game if you own any of their players. And if you end up needing help finding last minute replacements, my week one fantasy football rankings will continue to be updated all the way up until Sunday kickoff. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy football:

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When Scott Fish personally reached out to me (that didn’t happen) and begged me to participate in SFBX (also didn’t happen) to raise money for his Fantasy Cares charity, I reluctantly joined to help the kids. If you aren’t familiar with the Scott Fish Bowl, it’s the fantasy football equivalent of Burning Man. With a field of 1,440 participants, most of whom are in the fantasy football industry, some call it the greatest fantasy football competition in the universe. The Razzball camp was lit for this event: B_Don was handing out the experimental drugs, MB was twirling fire sticks, Rudy was waxing poetic about his 2020 fantasy football projections and The Boof was boofing anything and everything he could find to boof. And he found plenty to boof. All the while I sat in the corner whispering sweet dick jokes to my beloved Kerryon Johnson fathead. After making the SFB playoffs last year and then getting demolished in the first round, Kerryon and I were laser focused for this year’s draft. Without further ado, here’s the recap of my 2020 Scott Fish Bowl Draft out of the #2 slot (see the full draft board here):

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Quarantine Day 27:

Hey all you cool cats and kittens. Did you see the story about the tiger at the Bronx Zoo that tested positive for coronavirus? Very sad. I blame Carole Baskin. Not just for the infection of this poor feline, but for the entire COVID debacle. Speaking of which, the CDC just released some new guidelines and in order to receive a COVID-19 test in the United States you must now meet at least one of these requirements:

     a) Politician

     b) Professional athlete (Major League Soccer doesn’t count)

     c) Movie star (Porn does count)

     d) Valued tiger at the zoo

And if you check all four boxes the CDC even throws in a free roll of TP. So far only one man has cashed in on that free roll of one-ply: my preferred 2020 presidential candidate, Darren Waller. Anyway, here’s my top 15 dynasty tight ends for 2020 fantasy football:

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Welcome to Stat-o-Matic where we will look at some advanced stats around the NFL. As a disclaimer, I am using this space to play around with some numbers and present some interesting findings. But, by no means is this validated or predictive data. I hope that it will lead to meaningful discoveries or it could inspire you to go down your own rabbit hole. We’re going to explore together, crunch some numbers and see what pops out. Stats courtesy of PlayerProfiler.com.

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I know the climb has been brutal for you, as it has for us all. This past Sunday my eyes froze over as I watched many of my teams drop under .500 for the first time. As I write this, I am enduring Jason Witten hand me a loss one excruciating 3 yard catch after another. This section of the season is the darkest grind when the post-draft excitement has long worn off but the playoffs are still far away. Injuries and bye massacres come for us all, but it’s how we respond that defines us.

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A clash between defenses surrendering the 2nd (TB) and 6th (SEA) most receiving yards per game carries the highest point total for week 9.

Per NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Jameis Winston ranks #1 in average completed air yards and #1 in average intended air yards. Winston and Head Coach Bruce Arians offense likes to push the ball down field. Tied for 3rd in the NFL in completed passes over 40 yards, Jameis gets his shot against a Seahawks defense that ranks tied-for-10th in most completed passes allowed over 20+ yards. Despite his league leading 12 interceptions, Jameis Winston is a viable starter in all formats. Jameis is Rudy’s projected QB6 in week 10.

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As we get deeper into the season, more and more players are landing on their team’s injury report. However, with more and more teams also having their bye weeks, players are getting extra time to recover.

A bunch of wideouts have landed on the injury report this week, and even more are on the mend, trending towards playing in the coming weeks.

Let’s talk about some of the players who landed on the injury report this week.

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I had a feeling about the Rams last night. I thought that after a disappointing performance against Tampa, they’d take it to a divisional opponent. After all, Seattle hasn’t been nearly as dominant at home as they used to be. Seattle has a bad secondary, so I figured Goff would be able to throw all over them. It took a while, but he eventually did. The problem was the Rams defense is probably pretty bad. We’ve seen it over the past 5 days how much of a problem that the secondary is. Aaron Donald can’t do everything.

Many of you know that I like to dabble in gambling (legally now!) and instead of taking the 1.5 that Seattle was giving the Rams, I took the Rams to win outright and grab a few extra bucks in the process. As we now know, that was a horrible mistake and likely one that I won’t make again in the near future. I still can’t believe that Greg Zuerlein missed the game winning kick in the first place. He’s usually money in the bank. But instead I am heartbroken, and the only way to make myself feel better is to analyze statistics for you to keep in mind for your fantasy teams. Let’s go!

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