Like most of you, 2020 has been the best year of my life. It all started while I was watching NFL Network one Sunday morning last December, gearing up for some late season football with my hand down my pants like Al Bundy. Then a commercial flashed across my television screen that would forever change my life:
Turns out the curved erection was the original pandemic, back before pandemics were cool. And after several hard months of treatment, I can officially confirm: you don’t have to live with the curve guys. Right now you’re probably asking one of two things: 1) How can I too ease my Peyronie’s disease? or 2) What does this curved penis nonsense have to do with fantasy wide receivers? I’m glad you ask! 1) Go see Dr. Bent Johnson, he’s the best penis bender in the country; and 2) I can now watch D.K. Metcalf pain-free. The Metcalf erections of 2019 were bittersweet with my condition, but I was still tempted to put the big sexy in my top 10 wide receivers for 2020 fantasy football. I didn’t, but there was temptation. Anyway, here’s my top 20 wide receivers for 2020 PPR fantasy football:
Tier 4 (cont’d)
11. Adam Thielen – Thru 7 games in 2018, Thielen had a monstrous per game average of 9.6 receptions, 117 yards and scored 5 touchdowns in those 7 contests (an average of 25.6 points per game in PPR leagues). Thru 7 games in 2019, Thielen had a per game average of 3.9 receptions, 56 yards and 6 touchdowns in those 7 contests (an average of 14.6 points per game in PPR leagues). While those 2018 numbers could cure Peyronie’s Disease, the 2019 numbers weren’t too shabby either. In 2018 weeks 9-17 he averaged 13.8 fantasy points per game and in 2019 he battle a nagging hamstring injury from week 8 on, posting a total of only 3 catches for 27 yards from week 8 forward. With Stefon Diggs now out of town, Thielen will see all the targets he can handle. The only question is, how many can he handle? Maybe consider shopping the 30 year old around to your league-mates near mid-season.
2020 Projection: 80 receptions, 1,120 receiving yards, 10 rushing yards, 8 total touchdowns in 14 games
PPR Pts: 241 / 17.2 ppg | 1/2 PPR Pts: 201 / 14.4 ppg | Standard Pts: 161 / 11.5 ppg
12. Stefon Diggs – Things never seemed to fully click for Diggs in Minnesota. And that’s saying something for a 26 year old with two 1,000 yard receiving seasons under his belt and 30 career touchdowns. But he’s been a streaky receiver with huge performances often followed by stinkers. A change in scenery where he’ll be the undisputed #1 option for an up and coming Josh Allen could lead to a career year. Just beware, receivers will often struggle to perform—insert crooked penis joke—in their first year on a new team.
2020 Projection: 80 receptions, 1,100 receiving yards, 50 rushing yards, 8 total touchdowns in 14 games
PPR Pts: 243 / 17.4 ppg | 1/2 PPR Pts: 203 / 14.5 ppg | Standard Pts: 163 / 11.6 ppg
13. Allen Robinson – As a Bears’ fan, I can confirm that Mitch Trubisky was horrible last year. Many Sundays I would debate whether I’d rather watch Trubisky or slam my junk in a car door. Weird that those were the only two options that ever came to mind on Sundays, but it does explain my deformed genitalia. Anyway, I saw a Vegas betting line that puts Nick Foles somewhere between a 2:1 and 3:1 favorite to be the Bears’ week 1 starting quarterback. Which makes sense considering how much they’re paying the guy and how terrible Trubisky was. We shouldn’t be surprised if ARob improves on his already impressive 2019 numbers with a competent (maybe?) quarterback running the O.
2020 Projection: 90 receptions, 1,050 receiving yards, 7 total touchdowns in 14 games
PPR Pts: 237 / 16.9 ppg | 1/2 PPR Pts: 192 / 13.7 ppg | Standard Pts: 147 / 10.5 ppg
14. Robert Woods – There’s a lot of wood going on in these rankings, isn’t there?! A reader told me I had the wrong Rams’ receiver in my top 10 wide receivers when I ranked Cooper Kupp #6, but omitted Bob Woods. I get it, Woods has shown great consistency with consecutive seasons of 85+ receptions and 1,100+ yards. And he’s due for some positive touchdown regression after hitting pay dirt only twice last year; at the same time he’s not exactly a natural end zone target at only 6’0″ and 195 lbs. Woods provides a high floor, but he doesn’t quite have the ceiling of a Cooper Kupp.
2020 Projection: 85 receptions, 1,100 receiving yards, 50 rushing yards, 5 total touchdowns in 14 games
PPR Pts: 235 / 16.8 ppg | 1/2 PPR Pts: 192.5 / 13.8 ppg | Standard Pts: 150 / 10.7 ppg
15. Terry McLaurin – Have you checked out fantasy football tools wizard, Rudy Gamble’s, 2020 fantasy football projections yet? As you can see, Rudy has no blood flow issues when Mr. McLaurin is in the room. I’m a little more reserved when it comes to Chin Sack Terry, but the heavy volume that made the speedster so successful in his rookie season could be steady, or even grow, in year two. And if his former college QB Dwayne Haskins is able to grab the reins and take a step forward himself in year two, then Rudy’s high end fantasy WR1 visions could be prophetic.
2020 Projection: 75 receptions, 1,100 receiving yards, 7 total touchdowns in 14 games
PPR Pts: 227 / 16.2 ppg | 1/2 PPR Pts: 189.9 / 13.5 ppg | Standard Pts: 152 / 10.9 ppg
16. D.K. Metcalf – I draft my receivers and tight ends based on the size of their muscles. That strategy has a 100% success rate after landing me Darren Waller in 2019. But if you’re more into “stats” and “actual data,” Metcalf saw nearly 7 targets per game in the final 8 regular season games and then 9 targets in their first playoff game. The big man quickly surpassed Tyler Lockett as Russell Wilson’s favorite target—and who could blame Russ for looking to the 6’4″ / 230 lbs sexpot early and often in his young career—leading to a 7 touchdown rookie season (with one post season touchdown to boot). If you’re looking for #1 overall fantasy receiver upside after the first 40 picks of your draft, then look no further.
2020 Projection: 75 receptions, 1,050 receiving yards, 10 rushing yards, 9 total touchdowns in 15 games
PPR Pts: 235 / 15.7 ppg | 1/2 PPR Pts: 197.5 / 13.2 ppg | Standard Pts: 160 / 10.7 ppg
17. A.J. Brown – Flip one of those three-sided coins between these rookies; they all have very bright futures. AJB grew stronger as his rookie season went on, finishing with a flurry of 5 touchdowns in his final 6 games including four 110+ yard performances. Some are ready to crown the kid as perennial WR1 (and he may well be) but let’s keep a little perspective here: in two of those final 6 regular season games Brown totaled only 4 catches for 79 yards and in their 3 playoff games he totaled just 5 catches for 64 yards and no touchdowns. I’m not saying to pump the brakes like the drivers ed teacher with Donkey behind the wheel, but I do want a slightly larger sample before anointing Brown as a top fantasy receiver.
2020 Projection: 70 receptions, 1,150 receiving yards, 60 rushing yards, 8 total touchdowns, in 15 games
PPR Pts: 239 / 15.9 ppg | 1/2 PPR Pts: 204 / 13.6 ppg | Standard Pts: 169 / 11.3 ppg
18. Amari Cooper – The Cowboys’ top pass catcher is tough to value. I expected to have him near my top 10, but found myself bumping him down since he’s been less consistent than Jerry Jones’s Shakeys Pizza Parlor revenue back in the 60’s. But we shouldn’t forget what we saw from Coop over the first 9 games of 2019 when he was the #2 overall fantasy receiver. He’s going a little higher than Metcalf in early drafts, but #1 overall receiver upside is possible for Amari too if the stars align in Dallas (not happening).
2020 Projection: 75 receptions, 1,100 yards, 9 total touchdowns in 15 games
PPR Pts: 234 / 15.6 ppg | 1/2 PPR Pts: 196.5 / 13.1 ppg | Standard Pts: 159 / 10.6 ppg
19. Courtland Sutton – 2019 was a great season for young receivers. Drew Lock’s first five starts were encouraging last year and he targeted Sutton heavily in those five games (40 targets). The 24 year old Sutton has the size and skill to become an elite WR1 (6’4″ / 216 lbs). I’m buying into this Broncos offense like it’s toilet paper and hand sanitizer circa March 2020.
2020 Projection: 75 receptions, 1,150 receiving yards, 8 total touchdowns in 15 games
PPR Pts: 238 / 15.9 ppg | 1/2 PPR Pts: 200.5 / 13.4 ppg | Standard Pts: 163 / 10.9 ppg
20. Mike Evans – Controversial ranking alert! You may have noticed that this group of 10 receivers is all one tier, and the tier actually stretches all the way back into the top ten including Kenny Golladay and Tyreek Hill. The meaning of the word “tier” is that I value all of these players in relatively the same ballpark. They each provide varying degrees of upside, floor, injury risk, team/quarterback uncertainty, etc. which should be taken into account when making your selections and building your roster. So while its true, there’s 19 other players I have ahead of Evans, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he finishes in the top 10. And while Brady will likely spread it out a little more than Jameis, and manage the game in a much less reckless manner, Evans will still see plenty of red zone targets; his floor feels really high still. A 1,000 yard, 9 touchdown projection is hardly a kick to the crooked dong.
2020 Projection: 75 receptions, 1,000 receiving yards, 9 total touchdowns in 15 games
PPR Pts: 229 / 15.3 ppg | 1/2 PPR Pts: 191.5 / 12.8 ppg | Standard Pts: 154 / 10.3 ppg
Josh Allen has averaged 27.7 passes his rookie year and 28.8 last year. In those two years he has not completed more then 58 percent of his passes. He has averaged 1.1 passing touchdowns in 26 starts.
The leading wide receiver for the Buffalo Bills last year was John Brown. He had 115 targets (7.66 per game), for 1,060 yards (70.66) and six touchdowns (.4) in 15 games. He averaged 14.7 fantasy points per game, which placed him in a tie for WR24.
In a offense that maybe (and that’s a BIG maybe) will throw it 30 times and a QB that very realistically completes less then 60% of his passes. The likes of John Brown and Cole Beasley, who also saw 106 targets (7+ per game) and also six touchdowns (.4) are both back. I’m not saying either one of them will repeat the volume they saw last year. They are however going to add another layer that will even further cap the upside of Diggs.
His current ADP in best ball, since May 20th is WR25. Yikes, you’re definitely paying for what appears to be his ceiling at that price point. The good thing is his draft stock is slowly becoming cheaper. If you go back to April 20th or anytime earlier, his ADP was WR23. Hopefully this trend continues and he can maybe, just maybe actually provide some kind of value.
Great stuff, Dase!
From my perspective, while I like John Brown, he’s nowhere near the caliber player Diggs is. Allen hasn’t had a target anywhere near Diggs talent. Plus Allen is only headed into his third season and the Bills offense is still evolving with him. I wouldn’t lean too heavily on the past in this instance.
Thanks, DT!
No problem, thanks for sharing your thoughts!
Wow Lots of similarities to my likings. Love Scary T , DK, and I agree about Diggs but not quite WR1 but still good stuff. Thanks Donkey Teef. No JuJu yet huh?
Thanks, Joe! Yeah I’m not a big JuJu guy and a little weary of Ben’s elbow. I wrote up some thoughts on JuJu back in January: https://football.razzball.com/juju-smith-schuster-2020-fantasy-football
Oh I wanted to ask your opinion on CMC and AJB for Barkley and Kupp. I would be getting Barkley and Kupp. Is that nutty or good or even or what? Thanks.
That’s not nutty at all, it’s more close to a even trade, then any of the other options. The two running backs are splitting hairs even in a dynasty format, plus Barkley is younger. Again the WRs are close enough that it comes down to what you want. AJB is the true number one, as I see Kupp as more of a number two in the Rams offense. That being said, Kupp is going to see more targets, as AJB is in a run heavy, low volume passing offense. A BIG plus for AJB is that he is four years and some months younger. I personally would not accept the trade, I like CMC and AJB more then the other two, again it’s close enough that if you like the other players more, make it happen.
I agree with Dase that it isn’t nutty, but I’d want the CMC & AJB side too. I think the Saquon side needs a 3rd piece added to level the deal out.
Just joined my first Dynasty football league. Taking over a team that needs help.
QB
Wilson
Rodgers
RB
DJ
Montgomery
Snell
And a bunch of crap
WR
Moore
Watkins
John Brown
Preston Williams
Dorsett
Cole
TE
Hooper
Hockenson
They gave some defensive format that you choose a dL (Saints); LB(Packers) and DB (Jets). Not sure what that’s all about.
I have the #4 pick followed by #18. Even if i get an amazing RB at the top my team is pretty sunk this year w/o a ton of luck. Do you see any one from my roster that I could use for draft capital? I don’t see how Rodgers or DJ have any value anymore.
Hey Ivan,
It sounds like you’re playing IDP. Check out all of GasDocs IDP stuff: https://football.razzball.com/author/gasdoc
As for the team, I agree you have to rebuild. I’d look to trade Rodgers, John Brown and maybe Hooper. I’m actually optimistic on DJ short term so I’d lean towards holding him and trying to sell him high in season this year
Thanks-will do. I also have Hayden Hurst and Jack Doyle on the taxi squad so selling from TE makes sense.