In my last article, I named my top 5 fantasy QB MVPs. My list included Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels, and Jared Goff. If you missed that piece, you can review it HERE.
Today, I’m going to look at the other end of the spectrum…my top 5 fantasy QB busts. Each year we speculate on who will step up to lead our teams to fantasy glory. Sometimes, those predictions miss and other times they go awry in a spectacular way. This year was no exception.
So, without further ado…
NOTE: Positional Finish indicates the player’s fantasy finish at the position based on 6 point TDs and 1 point per 20 yards passing.. The average draft position (ADP) that is inside the () is the positional ADP the player was drafted based on the Razzball 2024 Fantasy Football ADP sheet.
Quarterback MVPs
- Player: Anthony Richardson
- Team: Indianapolis Colts
- Positional Finish (ADP): QB 26 (QB 6)
In my book, the biggest QB bust of the 2024 fantasy season was Anthony Richardson. I remember hearing some “experts” predicting Richardson would legitimately receive MVP votes. For a player with only a handful of games played in his rookie season, I thought that was insanity at the time. Because of that, and the fact that he was being drafted as QB 6, I only owned Richardson on one team – a SuperFlex league with preferential QB scoring. Other than that team, I avoided Richardson in all other formats. I’m glad I did.
To put his season in perspective, he scored half as many fantasy points as Bo Nix and Sam Darnold. HALF! Talk about a sophomore slump! To be fair, he did have a couple games that helped his fantasy owners, including Week 1 vs HOU and Week 11 vs the NYJ. What made those games successful? You guessed it, he found the end zone with his legs. Take away the six games missed due to injury (also, remember when he “tapped out”?), his ability to generate fantasy points with his legs essentially summed up his season. In the six games he failed to score a rushing TD, his fantasy scoring average was 13.1 points. In the five games he scored a rushing TD, his fantasy scoring average was exactly double – 26.2 points. He will look to rebound in his 3rd NFL season this Fall and since fantasy owners love running QBs (and have short memories), he’ll likely be a top 10 drafted QB yet again. Take caution!
- Player: CJ Stroud
- Team: Houston Texans
- Positional Finish (ADP): QB 18 (QB 5)
Is this another case of the “sophomore slump” or is there something else going on here? Nobody can really argue that Stroud’s rookie season was fantastic in 2023, with 4100+ yards and 26 total TDs. What makes that even more remarkable was the fact that he only had 5 INTs on the season. Fast forward to the end of the 2024 season and we find just over 3700 passing yards, 20 total TDs (0 rushing) and 12 INTs. Clearly, this looks like a case where the NFL adjusted to CJ Stroud. The big question will be then, will Stroud make the required adjustments for 2025? My money says he’ll come in somewhere between his 2023 and 2024 seasons and thus should be drafted in the QB 9-11 range. My money also says he’ll be drafted much higher than that.
- Player: Patrick Mahomes
- Team: Kansas City Chiefs
- Positional Finish (ADP): QB 11 (QB 2)
Here’s the classic case of where “real” and “fantasy” football collide. Patrick Mahomes may be leading the Chiefs back to the Super Bowl, but he didn’t do his fantasy owners many favors throughout the season. If you look at his overall numbers, they really aren’t that far off his 2023 season numbers, including 3928 passing yards, 26 TDs and 11 INTs (in 2023, those were 4183 passing yards, 27 TDs and 14 INTs, respectively). However, that translated to fantasy disappointment for those who spent a high draft pick. He scored between 16 to 23 fantasy points in 12 of 16 games, including every game until Week 9. He also didn’t have a clean game (no INTs) until Week 9. One of the biggest differences I see in his 2024 numbers is the fact that he wasn’t able to get the ball down the field as much. In years past, he had between 11-15 40+ passing yard plays. This season, that number was a dismal 4, in large part due to missing weapons like Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice for the bulk of the season. Many would argue that ending the season as a top 12 fantasy QB is a positive but I think we can all agree that doesn’t apply to the QB drafted as QB 2.
- Player: Dak Prescott
- Team: Dallas Cowboys
- Positional Finish (ADP): QB 31 (QB 19)
Raise your hand if you waited to draft a QB and felt you landed a lottery ticket with Dak Prescott. Did you raise your hand? I sure did. Coming off his 4500+ passing yard and 36 TD performance in 2023, drafting Dak as QB 19 looked like an extreme value. The cracks in that theory opened quickly after 13 and 19 fantasy point performances in the first two weeks. The fantasy community was spared a full season of start/sit decisions when Dak went down with a season-ending hamstring injury in November. He’s expected to be at full health in advance of training camps but there are many questions unanswered. Will he remain the Cowboy’s QB? What will the Cowboys offense look like? Will he be donning a new uniform? All these questions will dictate his value to fantasy owners in 2025. All things considered, I expect a similar draft ADP as a fantasy backup with upside.
- Player: Brock Purdy
- Team: San Francisco 49ers
- Positional Finish (ADP): QB 14 (QB 11)
My final QB bust is Brock Purdy. I admit, calling Purdy a BUST may be too harsh since his fantasy output was directly affected by the rash of injuries plaguing the 49ers all season. I mean, when your all-world RB limps through only 4 games during mid-season, your #1 (arguably) WR blows out his knee in Week 7, and your All-Pro left tackle takes his final snap of the year in Week 11, you’re destined for a down year. He also sat out the last game with an elbow injury but by all accounts, is not an injury that will linger. The biggest concern I see is his TD:INT ratio. In his first two seasons, he was generally 3:1 there but dropped significantly to less than 2:1 (5:3, specifically). Everyone surrounding the 49ers are ready to turn the page toward 2025 and I’d suggest fantasy owners do the same. His ADP may drop a few spots from the QB 11 we saw in 2024 drafts but he should remain a viable low-end starter or high-end backup this Fall.
“Honorable” Mention:
- Jordan Love – Positional Finish (ADP): QB 17 (QB 10)
- Deshaun Watson – Positional Finish (ADP): QB 34 (QB 21)
That’s All Folks
Whether you’re rooting for a Chiefs three-peat or Saquon Barkley and the Eagles, enjoy the Super Bowl. Here’s hoping for a good game above all else. While you enjoy that one, don’t forget it’s never too early to start planning for next season. The Razzball crew and I will be here the whole way to help you stay informed and ready to win again. A reminder that all our articles and rankings are free at https://football.razzball.com.
Look for all my off-season content right here and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret. I’m now on BlueSky as well (@dfavret.bsky.social).
Until next time, my friends.