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Today, I’ll be taking you through the last update of my redraft wide receiver rankings with my comments focussing on any major changes since my previous article, but click here to check out those comments if you missed them. These are set up for a half-PPR league, so minor adjustments should be made if you’re in a PPR league.

I finished last season as the third most accurate expert on FantasyPros, so I hope that you can use these rankings with confidence. You can find my full, up-to-date rankings at ffdfantasyfootball.com.

I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments, but you can also hit me up on Instagram @thefantasyfirstdown where I answer all questions. Meanwhile, if you need specific rankings for your league settings, check out my latest offer for Razzball readers here.

To make things a little easier, I’ve broken things up into tiers, grouping players who are, in my opinion, close in value. Where you actually draft these players in drafts really depends on your specific league settings, so I won’t be covering that here.

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Tier 1: The True Studs

  1. Justin Jefferson (MIN)
  2. Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
  3. Tyreek Hill (MIA)

Justin Jefferson remains the no-doubt WR1, but it gets interesting quickly after him. I’ve moved Ja’Marr Chase up to my WR2 purely due to Kupp’s Injury. I generally avoid Chase, as he tends to have huge boom games mixed in with a lot of middling performances. I favor the consistency of Kupp, but the hamstring injury is very scary, so he’s dropped out of this tier.

Tyreek Hill is close behind Chase, with the main fear of whether Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy. If he can, Hill has a very high ceiling every week, especially with a suspension now looking highly unlikely.

Tier 2: The Set and Forgets

  1. Stefon Diggs (BUF)
  2. CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
  3. Davante Adams (LV)
  4. Cooper Kupp (LAR)
  5. AJ Brown (PHI)

Stefon Diggs jumps three spots to fourth. I had him lower due to the reports of general discontent he’s had regarding his role on the team, but those seem to have settled, meaning he becomes a far more reliable option.

CeeDee Lamb lacks the upside of some others in this tier, but he’s supremely talented, and as the WR1 in one of the league’s best offenses that now lacks Ezekiel Elliott to grind out rushing yards, he’s someone you can feel good about every week.

Davante Adams should take a slight step back with Jimmy Garoppolo in town, but the biggest reason for his slight drop for me is the signing of Josh Jacobs. The running back will get a lot more touches than his replacements would have.

AJ Brown is another elite talent, but with so much volume competition, even in the elite Eagles offense, he will have some down weeks. Cooper Kupp is the real wildcard here. If healthy, he’d be the WR2 for me, especially in PPR, but he comes with a massive amount of injury risk. If you’re very risk-averse, I can accept avoiding him until Tier 5. However, if you’re all in for the win, it’s reasonable to take him as the WR2 overall. The choice is yours.

Tier 3: The Emerging Young Guns

  1. Amon-Ra St Brown (DET)
  2. Garrett Wilson (NYJ)
  3. Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
  4. Devonta Smith (PHI)
  5. Chris Olave (NO)
  6. Tee Higgins (CIN)

If this was PPR, Amon-Ra St. Brown would be in the above tier and could easily slide past Brown and Adams, but in half-PPR, his massive target volume isn’t enough to make up for his lack of end zone targets and general yardage. There’s also a lot more target competition now, with Sam LaPorta and, eventually, Jameson Williams sniffing around.

Garrett Wilson is set for a big jump, but it’s important not to draft him at his ceiling. He should become a weekly WR1, but it’s hard to see him surpassing those above him due to the questionable Jets offense.

Jaylen Waddle makes the biggest jump, and that’s all down to Tua Tagovailoa’s apparently improved health and the total lack of target competition. Outside Tyreek Hill, Waddle only has to worry about Braxton Berrios, Durham Smythe and some middling receiving backs.

Devonta Smith, on the other hand, has a heap of target competition, but he’s still a reliable weekly option and is only an AJ Brown injury away from being a fantasy league winner.

Chris Olave is another being projected for a huge bump, but I’m very nervous about the impact Michael Thomas will have on him. It’s reasonable to expect a jump forward from his 2022 finish of WR25 but don’t draft him at his ceiling of low-WR1.

Tee Higgins, like Waddle and Smith, is the WR2 in an incredible offense. He has some big weeks but also has his quiet days when the targets don’t go his way.

Tier 4: Can They Return To WR1 Status?

  1. Keenan Allen (LAC)
  2. Amari Cooper (CLE)
  3. DeAndre Hopkins (TEN)
  4. DK Metcalf (SEA)
  5. Calvin Ridley (JAC)

Every one of these players has a WR1 season on their resume. Can they do it again?

Keenan Allen had five straight WR1 finishes until his injury-ravaged 2022. Now healthy again in an offense poised for a bounce-back, he’s a good half-PPR WR2 and an even better PPR option.

Amari Cooper has three WR1 finishes, including last year, when he was the overall WR9. But DeShaun Watson isn’t looking great, and there’s far more target competition in 2023, so there’s reason for concern. Having said that, the upside is huge if Watson clicks.

DeAndre Hopkins has five WR1 finishes, with all in the top 6. If not for a suspension and injury last year, he would have added a sixth as he finished with double-digit PPR points every game he played in 2022. The move to Tennessee isn’t ideal, but Hopkins is such a target vacuum it’s entirely possible he still makes it work. He’s a real boom-bust prospect.

DK Metcalf entered 2022 with two WR1 finishes under his belt, and while Geno Smith was surprisingly good, the offense became far less focused on their two wide receivers. With the arrival of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, it’s hard to imagine DK returning to WR1-land, but Metcalf is a solid WR2 with the talent to surprise each week.

Calvin Ridley was the overall WR4 way back in 2020 before injury and suspension put him on the shelf. He’s still only 28, and this Jaguars offense has proven very fruitful for its receivers, but there are a lot of mouths to feed, and Ridley ultimately hasn’t played to a good standard for three years.

Tier 5: Do You Feel Lucky, Punk?

  1. Drake London (ATL)
  2. Tyler Lockett (SEA)
  3. Deebo Samuel (SF)
  4. Christian Watson (GB)
  5. Chris Godwin (TB)
  6. Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
  7. Marquise Brown (ARI)

I don’t like any of these options, but with injuries and other issues dropping other players down, this is who we have. If these guys are on the board, I’m likely looking at other positions for a round or two.

Drake London showed what he could do last year and has very little target competition, but this is projecting a big jump. The upside is there, but only if this offense becomes more pass-heavy.

Tyler Lockett has the same issues as Metcalf, plus he has age against him and the possibility of TD regression. Having said that, you can usually get him a round or two later than the others in this tier, so I have plenty of shares.

Deebo Samuel has a floor far lower than this draft position warrants. But we also shouldn’t ignore his massive overall WR3 finish two years ago. He’ll need a lot more high-value usage to produce anything close to that, which means an injury to either CMC or his teammate Aiyuk. Those are possible but unlikely to last all season.

I will have no shares of him or the next man, Christian Watson. He broke out in spectacular fashion last year, but he’ll have a heap of TD regression, and he no longer has Aaron Rodgers wall-papering over the mediocre O-line. Drafting him here is very close to his ceiling, which I dislike.

Chris Godwin, I love in PPR, but with the Buccaneers now led by Baker Mayfield (ewww) you can no longer rely on the massive target volume that’s led to an overall WR2 finish.

Brandon Aiyuk looked good last year but had a lot more down weeks once CMC arrived.

Finally, there’s Marquise Brown, the WR6 through five weeks last year. He’s no longer got Nuk to contend with, though he also doesn’t have Kyler Murray, so it’s hard to know exactly what to expect. The upside is big if a QB can emerge, though, as the Cardinals will be chasing a lot of games with their mediocre defense.

Tier 6: New Situations and Big Risks

  1. Mike Williams (LAC)
  2. DJ Moore (CHI)
  3. Diontae Johnson (PIT)
  4. Christian Kirk (JAC)
  5. Mike Evans (TB)
  6. Terry McLaurin (WAS)
  7. Jerry Jeudy (DEN)

This tier has a heap of players with question marks around their new situations.

Mike Williams was quietly quite solid last year, and with a new OC in town, he could boom. Or maybe Quentin Johnston will emerge and make the veteran an afterthought.

DJ Moore is an elite talent, but he needs Justin Fields to get a whole lot better to make him a viable fantasy option in 2023. Fields surpassed 190 passing yards just twice last year, which really lowers Moore’s floor and ceiling. But if Fields takes a Jalen Hurts-style step forward due to his new, talented receiving option, who knows what could happen?

I love Diontae Johnson in PPR, but it’s very hard to trust him in half-PPR. He will continue to lead the team in targets and should get some positive TD regression from his donut last year, but his yardage total will be hurt by the emergence of George Pickens and the Steelers’ intent to run the ball early and often.

Christian Kirk showed his upside last year, but the pre-season showed that this season he won’t be an every-down player. Even though the Jaguars usually use at least three WRs, any lost snaps are bad for fantasy. He’s not one to take too early.

Mike Evans will need Baker Mayfield to be a lot better than he’s been for much of his NFL career to this point. Leading into Week 16 last season Evans was the WR29. He then ripped off 207 yards on 10 receptions and three TDs. His boom/bust production makes him solid in best ball but a risky proposition in standard fantasy, especially in PPR.

Speaking of risk, Terry McLaurin and Jerry Jeudy are both major injury question marks. McLaurin’s turf toe can linger badly and has been known to totally shut down seasons for wide receivers, who need to be explosive into and out of their cuts. Jeudy’s hamstring is also a major re-injury risk. The Broncos have signaled that he’ll probably be ready in Week 1, but you’ll be nervous about a re-injury for much of the season if you draft him.

Tier 7: The Bye Week Fillers

  1. Gabe Davis (BUF)
  2. Michael Pittman Jr (IND)
  3. Jahan Dotson (WAS)
  4. George Pickens (PIT)
  5. Michael Thomas (NO)

Michael Pittman is a real unknown this year, with Anthony Richardson a loose cannon in an offense that badly lacks weapons. While Pittman is their one bright spot, he may not be too badly hamstrung by Richardson’s arm to be a good fantasy option.

The other players in this tier are all entering the season as their teams’ WR2.

Gabe Davis and Michael Thomas are unlikely to change that, but they should be able to provide viable WR3 value in fantasy regardless, assuming they can stay healthy, especially in MT’s case.

Jahan Dotson and George Pickens, meanwhile, have plenty of upside. Dotson could easily enter Week 1 as the top Commanders pass-catcher with McLaurin’s injury, though it will be interesting to see whether he’s able to handle the attention he’ll get from shutdown corners around the league if this happens. Pickens was a superstar in the making in college before an ACL tear entering his junior year in 2021 stifled that progress. He’s now another year removed from that injury and has the potential to explode in Kenny Pickett’s second year.

Tier 8: Searching For Upside

  1. Jordan Addison (MIN)
  2. Skyy Moore (KC)
  3. Courtland Sutton (DEN)
  4. Brandin Cooks (DAL)
  5. JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE)
  6. Zay Flowers (BAL)
  7. Elijah Moore (CLE)
  8. Zay Jones (JAC)
  9. Nico Collins (HOU)
  10. Kadarius Toney (KC)
  11. Allen Lazard (NYJ)
  12. Jakobi Meyers (LV)

Who you select in this tier depends entirely on what you need. If you’re searching for a safe bench option you can use in your flex or during bye weeks, you’ll want the likes of Brandin Cooks, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Lazard or Jakobi Meyers. They’ll all likely finish in the Top 50 wide receivers, but the chances of any finishing in the Top 24 is very low.

On the other hand, there’s plenty of potential in the other picks here. Jordan Addison is a talented rookie who could perform like Adam Thielen did in this pass-heavy Vikings offense. Or maybe he’ll be a WR3 who struggles to adjust.

Skyy Moore will start in the slot alongside Marques Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson. Of those three, who has the most potential? There’s only one answer.

Once healthy, Kadarius Toney likely joins in, and if he can stay on the field, he’s a real league winner. He just can’t seem to make that happen, and that’s why he’s ranked so low.

Courtland Sutton lacks that league-winning upside, but if Jerry Jeudy misses significant time or if Russell Wilson remembers how to cook, he could return to his 2019 level of WR19.

Brandin Cooks is another with a history of strong fantasy production, with more seasons inside the Top 16 than outside it. He’s clearly got the talent, but he’s close to hitting that age cliff, and there’s plenty of target competition in Dallas. He’s not someone I’d want to rely on, but if it all clicks, he has WR2 upside.

Zay Flowers is another exciting rookie, but will he have a lead role? There’s been a lot of positive chat around the diminutive receiver, but whether Lamar Jackson can harness that potential is another issue entirely.

Elijah Moore has had a much-needed change of scenery. He also needs his QB to improve to make the most of this opportunity though. He’ll only play in 3WR sets, so he’ll need to be very efficient.

Zay Jones had the quietest WR2 season in recent memory, but with Calvin Ridley in town, he’ll find targets far harder to come by. I do expect he’ll play on every down, but he’s likely the fourth or fifth receiving option unless Ridley or Kirk goes down.

Nico Collins has the clearest path to upside in this tier. He’s the lead receiver in Houston, and he just needs C.J. Stroud to have a great rookie season. That’s no easy feat, though, as most quarterbacks struggle in their first year. If Stroud hones in on his lead man, though, Collins could be quietly very productive.

Next week I’ll be back with my in-season content.

Each week I’ll be discussing the streamers and stashes you should be picking up to improve your roster. Remember to check out my full rankings for all positions at ffdfantasyfootball.com.