LOGIN

We’re now counting down the hours until the NFL season kicks off.  If you’re like me, we will be drafting right to the very end.  As of this writing, I have six drafts either in progress or yet to start – and I love every minute of it.  But the calendar doesn’t lie and that means we need to shift gears and start talking about Week 1.    

Remember the article I wrote in early August about our one of our new tools here at Razzball?  You don’t? Well, you can check it out HERE.  Go ahead, I’ll wait for you to give it a quick read. 

Now that you know all about our new “Home/Road Player Splits” tool, we’re ready to see if there are any nuggets waiting for us there for Week 1.  Hint: (insert your best Yosemite Sam voice…) “There’s Gold in Dem Thar Tools!”

So, let’s get the spade out and start digging: 

Starts

  • Player: Travis Etienne Jr.
  • Game: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins
  • Home/Road (+/-): -7

Predicted as one of the highest scoring games at 49.5, Travis Etienne Jr. gets a boost for this road tilt against the Dolphins, based on his -7 Home/Road rating.  Specifically, he averaged 18.0 fantasy points on the road versus only 13.1 fantasy points at home.  Both the Jags O-Line and the Dolphins D-Line rated at or below the NFL average in our adjusted line yard metric.  Additionally, the Dolphins D will be without Bradley Chubb and possibly Jaelan Phillips as well.  Etienne Jr. is my top 15 RBs for my preliminary Week 1 rankings already and this little nugget may give me the confidence to bump him up even farther. 

  • Player: Raheem Mostert
  • Game: Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Home/Road (+/-): +8

In this same game, consider starting Mostert at home vs the Jags.  I realize the Achane-Mostert, Moster-Achane dilemma is fresh in your minds from draft season.  Until we get some game data showing how this RB situation will play out, our best predictor is to look backwards.  In doing so, we’ll find Mostert scoring 70% more fantasy points at home vs on the road, 20.4 (home) vs 12.0 (road).  Conversely, Devon Achane was more consistent, 15.4 (home) vs 16.0 (road).  Also, let’s not forget how this played out in last season’s first home game, where Mostert scored 3 TDs and a whopping 45.2 (PPR) fantasy points. Go contrarian and run with Mostert in Week 1. 

  • Player: Jared Goff
  • Game: Detroit Lions vs Los Angeles Rams
  • Home/Road (+/-): +5

Yes, we know the “Goff” rule in starting him at home.  The numbers bear it out.  Goff has a +5 home rating, scoring 38% more at home, 18.9 (home) vs 13.7 (road).  He comes into this game with all his weapons locked and loaded as well.  Oh right, there’s that whole “revenge game” narrative between he and the Rams too.  There are big question marks with the Rams D, leading to preseason rankings as one of the worst in the league.  They were near the bottom of the NFL vs QBs last season and come into 2024 with one of the most inexperienced front seven in the league.  On the flip side, the Lions are projected by some to field the #1 O-line.  If this bears out, Goff and the Lions should have a feast at home.

Other Starts to consider:

  • Deshaun Watson, Browns vs Cowboys: +170% PPR at home (18.0) vs road (6.7)
  • George Kittle, 49ers vs Jets: +131% at home (17.7) vs road (7.7)
  • Drake London, Falcons vs Steelers: +96% PPR at home (14.1) vs road (7.2)
  • Tee Higgins, Bengals vs Patriots: +83% PPR at home (14.3) vs road (7.8)
  • Pat Freiermuth, Steelers @ Falcons: +42% PPR on road (8.1) vs home (3.4)
  • Brian Robinson, Jr., Commanders @ Buccaneers: +32% on road (14.9) vs home (10.1)
  • Alvin Kamara, Saints vs Panthers: +30% PPR at home (19.0) vs road (14.6)
  • Terry McLaurin, Commanders @ Buccaneers: +30% on road (13.7) vs home (9.5)
  • Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks vs Broncos: +29% PPR at home (16.0) vs road (9.4)
  • Mark Andrews, Ravens @ Chiefs: +26% on road (15.2) vs home (11.2)           
  • Courtland Sutton, Broncos @ Seahawks: +23% PPR on road (13.0) vs home (10.0)
  • David Njoku, Browns vs Cowboys: +18% PPR at home (13.2) vs road (11.3)
  • Kyler Murray, Cardinals @ Bills: +11% PPR on road (18.3) vs home (16.3)
  • James Conner, Cardinals @ Bills: +10% PPR on road (15.5) vs home (14.0)

Sits

  • Player: Ja’Marr Chase
  • Team: Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots
  • Home/Road (+/-): -9

Will Chase suit up and play in the opener?  That will be the burning question in the Queen City this week.  As of this writing, it appears the two sides are closing in on an agreement.  Should he play, fantasy owners will put him in their starting lineups without delay, as they should.  However, there are several questions that should keep your expectations in check.  Is he in game shape?  Will he play a full game if the Bengals blow out the Patriots, as expected?  Does he tend to score more fantasy points at home or the road?  It’s this third question that we’re going to discuss here.  Here’s your answer: Chase scored 41% more points on the road (21.0) than at home (12.3) last season.  Uh oh!  Maybe it would be ok for everyone if he sits one game (did I just say that?).  Seriously though, keep an eye on the news here.  If he plays, start him on your fantasy teams (of course) but you may want to fade him in DFS and the Sportsbooks. 

  • Player: Nico Collins
  • Team: Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
  • Home/Road (+/-): -9

Who will be the top dog in the crowded Texans WR room?  During draft season, most of us thought it was going to be Nico Collins.  By the time we’re done, it very well may be but that answer may not be realized next weekend.  Collins comes into this road game at Indy with the most lopsided split of any Texan.  He scored a whopping 81% more fantasy points at home (20.5) than on the road (11.3).  In 2023, the Texans “road dog” was Noah Brown (+45% PPR points on the road).  Collins’ new teammate, Stefon Diggs, was also a little better on the road (+9%) last season.  Will this trend correlate to the new season? I’ll review this next week.  In the meantime though, just don’t set the bar too high for Nico this week. 

  • Player: Isiah Pacheco
  • Team: Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
  • Home/Road (+/-): -2

No, I haven’t lost my mind…well, not yet anyway.  Despite the title of this section, I’m not here to tell you to sit Pacheco.  I am suggesting you may want to temper expectations a bit though.  Since this is a Home/Road split article, let’s start there.  Pacheco was better on the road last season, scoring 11% more PPR fantasy points on the road (16.2) than at home (14.3).  The Chiefs also welcome the Ravens D that once again projects to be one of the best in the NFL.  Adding to the Pacheco “concern” may be opportunity.  The Chiefs now boasts talented pass catchers now, adding Marquise Brown (Doubtful) and Xavier Worthy to Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice.  Third-down specialist, Samaje Perine, was also signed to the squad recently.  I don’t expect him to steal more than a few touches in this one, but they will be opportunities none-the-less.  Again, let me be clear, DO NOT SIT Pacheco, but temper expectations.                       

Other Sits to consider:

  • Joshua Palmer, Chargers vs Raiders: -90% PPR at home (7.5) vs road (14.3)
  • Will Levis, Titans @ Bears: -89% PPR on road (7.4) vs home (14.0)
  • Cade Otton, Buccaneers vs Commanders: -68% PPR at home (5.1) vs road (8.6)
  • Jake Ferguson, Cowboys @ Browns: -66% PPR on road (8.6) vs home (14.3)
  • Daniel Jones, Giants vs Vikings: -63% PPR at home (6.0) vs road (9.8)
  • Dak Prescott, Cowboys @ Browns: -59% PPR on road (15.1) vs home (24.0)
  • Trey McBride, Cardinals @ Bills: -51% PPR on road (8.3) vs home (12.5)
  • CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys @ Browns: -48% PPR on road (18.3) vs home (27.0)
  • Cooper Kupp, Rams @ Lions: -47% PPR on road (10.0) vs home (14.7)
  • Tyler Lockett, Seahawks vs Broncos: -42% PPR at home (9.3) vs road (13.2)
  • Deebo Samuel, 49ers vs Jets: -36% PPR at home (12.9) vs road (17.6)
  • Michael Pittman, Colts vs Texans: -35% PPR at home (12.9) vs road (17.4)
  • Puka Nacua, Rams @ Lions: -26% PPR on road (16.0) vs home (20.1)
  • Jakobi Meyers, Raiders @ Chargers: -26% PPR on road (11.4) vs home (14.4)
  • Rachaad White, Buccaneers vs Commanders: -22% PPR at home (13.1) vs road (16.0)
  • Christian Kirk, Jaguars @ Dolphins: -21% PPR on road (10.6) vs home (12.9)
  • DJ Moore, Bears vs Titans: -11% PPR at home (15.5) vs road (17.2)

To view these nuggets and find a few of your own, go check out this new tool at https://football.razzball.com/homeroadsplits/.

I realize it goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway.  This information should be used IN CONJUNCTION with our other tools in order to find the best plays of the week.  So, don’t forget to take a peek at all our other tools, including:

As always, all our articles and rankings are free at https://football.razzball.com.  Also, don’t forget to join the Razzball boys, Bobby (@BobbyLamarco), Sky (@SkyGuasco), Matt (@Stiles08), Jeff (@Jefferson_21) and me each week for our live show.  Come for the insight, stay for the fun!

Look for my articles right here each week and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret. 

Until next time, my friends!