What to Expect From Rookie Tight Ends in 2023

This year’s tight end class is one of the strongest in history, competing closely with the highly touted 2017, which brought us five tight ends in the first 48 picks, including Evan Engram, David Njoku, OJ Howard and Gerald Everett. While this year’s cohort lacks truly elite prospects like Kyle Pitts, it has plenty of players who could develop to this level and have very solid depth. Whether you need a tight end in dynasty or not, this is the year to stock up. Unfortunately, tight ends are known to take a while to develop, so today, our goal is to evaluate what we should expect from 2023’s rookies in their first season. As always, hit us up with your questions and thoughts in the comments.

We’ll be looking back at rookie tight end production over the last 10 years (last 15 years for early rounders), evaluating their fantasy finishes and also when they first moved into a fantasy-friendly role. As many tight ends can play 100% of snaps without so much as receiving a target, we considered a player’s first fantasy-relevant week as the week when they first ran at least 20 routes. 30 routes is generally a necessary number to be a top 10 tight end these days, but a player is at least startable with 20. Please note: routes run data was only available back to 2012.

1^st round rookies (e.g., Dalton Kincaid):

First-round rookie tight ends are a rare and wonderful thing. Only thirteen have been drafted in the last 15 years, and while we have grown accustomed to elite products thanks to Kyle Pitts and TJ Hockenson, in most years, the first tight end won’t come off the board until Day 2. Dalton Kincaid was a worthy first-round pick, though and could easily have gone in the first 15 picks on talent alone. The depth of this tight end class actually hurt him as teams could easily sit and wait, knowing there were three other similarly talented options available.

First-round tight ends have struggled to initially establish themselves. Outside Kyle Pitts and Evan Engram, who essentially played as big-bodied wide receivers, most will finish as a mid-low TE2 at best. Kincaid is exactly the type of player to break that mold, though. With Dalton Knox already at the Bills, Kincaid could easily slide into a big slot role and see a lot of 2TE sets. This could bring the top 10 production we all crave from our starters. While he’s not a top 5 option like Pitts was in his rookie season, he’s worth gambling on in the mid-late rounds in the hope he hits that ultra-productive role.

Early 2^nd round rookies (e.g., Sam LaPorta, Michael Mayer and Luke Musgrave)

Early Day 2 was previously a hot spot for tight ends in the NFL Draft, but in the last four seasons, only Cole Kmet has been drafted there. Hence we’ve had to go back a long way back to find solid fantasy production. In the late 2000s, 2^nd round rookies were fantasy gold, with lesser-known tight ends moving straight into short-lived fantasy success, but that has changed massively, with no top-18 finishes for these players since 2010. So while this year’s class is the strongest in recent memory, it’s still hard to see any of Sam LaPorta, Michael Mayer and Luke Musgrave making an immediate impact this year. At best, they’re worth a late-round gamble.

Late 2^nd round rookies (e.g., Luke Schoonmaker and Brenton Strange)

While tight ends in the late second round have traditionally struggled to make an initial impact, Pat Freiermuth showed there is an outside chance of an impactful rookie season. It’s unlikely that either of this year’s draftees are at a level where they can make that happen though. At best, Schoonmaker could eventually take over the lead role in Dallas, but it seems more likely he’ll end up in an unproductive committee with Jake Ferguson and maybe Peyton Hendershot. Brenton Strange, on the other hand, is in a similar spot to most players on this list, except he’s less talented. He’ll need an Evan Engram injury to have a chance at fantasy relevance, though obscurity is his more likely outcome.

3^rd round rookies (e.g., Tucker Kraft, Darnell Washington and Cameron Latu)

3^rd round tight ends are so common we only needed to go back 7 years to get a good sample size. It’s not a pretty story, either. While there are plenty of familiar names here, very few have made an impact in their rookie seasons. In fact, most barely had a role. Greg Dulcich is the notable exception, though he was a known talent coming out. None of this class fits that profile, though Tucker Kraft does have the ability to take the Mark Andrews route and be the later drafted tight end to take the starting role. That seems unlikely, given Luke Musgrave’s talent, though. Darnell Washington, meanwhile, is very much a blocking tight end, while Cameron Latu will require a George Kittle injury to have any chance of a rookie breakout. As the list shows, these all seem quite unlikely. I wouldn’t touch any of the above in redraft without surprising camp reports.

5^th round rookies (e.g., Josh Whyle, Will Mallory, Payne Durham and Davis Allen)

The 4^th round tends to be the absolute cut-off for rookie tight end production. Even players like George Kittle, a 5^th round hero, weren’t able to break through in the rookie years, and none of this season’s rookies fall into that category. Most will likely struggle for any snaps or, at best, be blocking experts with little fantasy relevance. Heavy pass.

7^th round rookies (e.g., Zach Kuntz and Brayden Willis)

I’m not even going to put together a table for this. The highest finish for a 7th-round tight end since 2014 is Tommy Sweeney. He was the TE97 back in 2019. Amazingly, he and Geoff Swaim have been the only last-round tight ends in the last decade to as much as sniff fantasy relevance at any point in their careers. These guys aren’t even worth touching in dynasty leagues.

Every year, rookie tight ends rise up expert rankings and ADP charts as pre-season buzz inflates their perceived draft value. Don’t be fooled. There are far better veteran tight ends available in the later rounds who are significantly more likely to break out. Also, look at the names in these tables and consider whether it’s really worth trading reliable veterans for dynasty draft picks that will turn into these guys. While the top 4 tight ends in this year’s class are very good prospects, everyone underneath is a massive gamble. Tread carefully.

Check out my rankings and other articles at ffdfantasyfootball.com, or if you have any thoughts or questions, you can find me @thefantasyfirstdown on Instagram (where I answer all questions) and @fantasyfirstdwn on Twitter. Next week we’ll be looking at redraft quarterback rankings.