Why Cam Ward Can Be a Star – QB Hit Rates

Last year saw six quarterbacks in the first 12 picks but in 2025, the sixth quarterback was Shadeur Sanders after his infamous fall to the fifth round. So is there any fantasy value to be found?

I broke down over 20 years of fantasy data to assess the fantasy success of quarterbacks based on their draft spot. I categorized them based on their career fantasy production both in the short- and long-term. I’ll judge players based on their peak success and their longevity to create an overall picture of quarterback hit rates. Before we get into the nuts and bolts, also make sure you check out my dynasty and rookie rankings and my video analysis of all positional hit rates. You can also follow hit me up on Instagram @TheFantasyFirstDown and on Twitter @FantasyFirstDwn if you have any questions.

For this article, players were placed into one of 8 categories:

Superstars: A top 2 fantasy finish and 7+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Studs: A top 5 fantasy finish and 5+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Starters: A top 12 fantasy finish and 4+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Backups: A top 18 fantasy finish and 4+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Solid players: A top 30 fantasy finish and 4+ years of fantasy-relevant production

Brief Booms: A top 5 fantasy finish and less than 4 years of fantasy-relevant production

Brief Values: A top 30 fantasy finish and 2-3 years of fantasy-relevant production

Bust: Less than 2 years of fantasy-relevant production and no top 5 finishes

I also ignored any players who are too early in their careers to be fairly categorized. This included almost all players drafted in 2024. You’ll notice that my cutoffs are half that of running backs and wide receivers. This is to reflect most leagues starting only one quarterback and one tight end.

The full results are listed at the bottom of this article.

Top 5 Quarterback Picks (Cam Ward)

There’s a common perception among NFL fans that quarterbacks are a bit of a lottery and that early quarterback picks regularly bust. That couldn’t be further from the truth. Only three quarterbacks drafted in the top 5 in the last twenty years have been true busts: Trey Lance, JaMarcus Russell and Vince Young. There’s also a small group of Zach Wilson, Sam Darnold and Mark Sanchez who have had brief relevance but have been very disappointing for fantasy owners and team owners alike. That means nearly three quarters of top 5 quarterback picks will turn into, at the very least, a solid NFL starter, with over half providing at least five years of fantasy relevance and at least one top 10 fantasy finish. That should give you a lot of confidence in Cam Ward’s long-term relevance. While I’m not too interested in Ward in redraft leagues this year, I think in the long term, with improving pass catching weapons, Ward has the tools to be a solid fantasy starter for years to come. I’m taking him from Pick 6 onwards in superflex rookie drafts and from the early 2^nd round in 1QB leagues.

Picks 17-40 (Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough)

The falloff by the second half of the first round is significant, with half the players in this range busting and many others disappointing. In fact, only Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers have been fantasy superstars while Jordan Love, Geno Smith, Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick have at least provided a little fantasy relevance. Sadly, Jaxson Dart looks more likely to take a Will Levis trajectory as a risky prospect with upside who will have to wait behind a veteran before even getting a chance. For that reason, I’m hands off in redraft leagues and bearish in dynasty, only considering Dart in the second round in superflex leagues and in the third round in 1QB. Meanwhile, Tyler Shough is at least a solid chance of winning the starting job out of the gate. But with few offensive weapons and entering an age-26 rookie season, Shough offers little dynasty value either. If you’re desperate for a starter right now, he’s a viable second round pick. But he’ll likely top-out as a Top 20 fantasy asset in the coming years, before turning into a backup.

Round 3 Picks (Jalen Milroe and Dillon Gabriel)

Let’s just start with the obvious. Nobody is drafting Dillon Gabriel and rightly so. He was an egregious reach on draft day and has little chance of staying on the roster long-term. But what about Jalen Milroe? He’s going as early as the second round in many rookie drafts, with owners intoxicated by his running ability. But this is no Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson. Yes, if he sees an NFL field, Milroe would be an immediate fantasy star. But he will need a lot of coaching before that ever happens and I think there’s a very high chance he’s never more than a backup. That aligns with the numbers, with over 80% of Round 3 picks never even logging a Top 20 fantasy season and most never even seeing the field. In fact, no Round 3 quarterback selected since 2013 has so much as a Top 18 season. There’s a massive gulf between Milroe and Shough/Dart. Don’t fall into it.

Day 3 Quarterback Picks (Shadeur Sanders, Kyle McCord, Will Howard, Riley Leonard, Graham Mertz, Cam Miller, Kurtis Rourke and Quinn Ewers)

Yes, Brock Purdy has been a good fantasy starter blah blah blah, but look at the numbers! Over 90% of Day 3 QB picks will be totally irrelevant for fantasy and the two greatest exceptions, Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins, were drafted in the 4^th round. This year’s late round picks simply aren’t worth drafting outside the deepest of leagues. I know that Shadeur Sanders is a bit of an exception given his draft day tumble and I see the argument. His is an unprecedented situation which makes taking him late in rookie drafts a viable option. But don’t be fooled. Sanders is highly unlikely to make a positive impact on your fantasy team, now or in the future.