We’re back! My Week 11 predictions were fire, so it’ll be tough to top them, but fear not. I got you! Let’s review my favorite WR starts and sits for Week 12, utilizing Razzball’s Wide Receiver Fantasy Points Scored Slot vs. Wide and our Defense Slot vs. Wide. The Slot vs Wide chart breaks down how many fantasy points a wide receiver has scored so far this season from the slot vs. out wide. With three weeks under our belts, the sample size is growing, and trends are starting to emerge.
Be sure to check out the latest tools on Razzball.com: Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed | WR Slot vs. Wide| DEF Targets Allowed | Home vs. Away | Wins vs. Losses | TD Tool | RB Zone vs. Gap Rushing | DEF Zone vs. Gap Rushing |
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Starts
- Player: Chris Olave
- Opponent: vs. Falcons
The last WR standing in NOLA, which makes for a Big Easy Sunday. Olave should draw all the targets, and I would be surprised if he does not have the largest target share among all WRs in Week 12. No Voodoo will be needed as the Falcons allow the fourth-most points (26.1) with 76% of their total points, the second-largest percentage in the league, to WRs out wide. Olave puts together 62% of his fanatsy value out wide, so expect a season-high in snaps out wide with two TE sets with Juwan Johnson and Taysom Hill.
- Player: A.J. Brown
- Opponent: at Dallas
It’s hard to trust Brown this season, but he’s coming off a season-high 11 targets against the Lions. Yes, he only caught one pass against the Cowboys in Week 1, but there’s nowhere to go but up. Dallas allows the ninth-most points to WRs on the perimeter, where Brown produces 95% of his points. He’s scored three TDs with 60+ yards five times in seven contests against the ‘Boys. Don’t overthink this one.
- Player: Rome Odunze
- Opponent: vs. Steelers
The Odunze bounce back is inevitable against the Steelers, who are permitting the most fantasy points to WRs out wide at 32.5 PPG. He leads the Bears out wide, scoring 11.3 points per game, the 12th most among healthy WRs. I understand he’s been boom or bust in his last four outings, but after a bust performance, he’s followed up with a top-10 finish. I fully expect a top-10 finish this week in a highly favorable matchup.
WR3 Starts (WRs ranked outside the top 25)
- Player: Cedric Tillman
- Opponent: vs. Raiders
Shedeur Sanders may not have standalone value, but Tillman is one of my sneaky starts in Week 12. Vegas allows 14.9 points per game in the slot, the third most in the NFL. Tillman led the Browns with 52 yards and ran 12 slot routes, the most for Cleveland in Week 11. Throughout his six healthy games this season, he’s scored 51% of his points from the slot while leading the Browns in slot PPG and total PPG. Now that Gabriel is out of the equation for this week, WRs should have priority in the passing attack with Tillman leading the charge in Week 12.
- Player: Jalen Coker
- Opponent: at San Francisco
Tetairoa McMillan is riding high in Carolina, but he’ll have to compete with his teammate this week. The Niners are allowing a league-high 18.7 points to the slot but allowing 56% of points out wide to WR, the fourth-fewest rate. This favors WRs in the slot, opposed to out wide. Since returning in Week 7, Coker is playing 64% of his passing snaps from the slot, where he’s producing 49% of his fantasy output this season. He’s creeping up to 70% snap share and should be in line for more work after tallying a season-high 52 yards against Atlanta, which is a bottom-third defense to WRs in the slot. This could be the beginning of his post-hype breakout.
Sits
- Player: Jauan Jennings
- Opponent: vs. Panthers
I was bold with wee Ladd last week, but this recommendation isn’t as bold. Most of the matchups for WR1s and WR2s are good to neutral. The Panthers allow the fourth-fewest points to WRs while ranking 13th to slot and fourth to out wide. Jennings outproduced Ricky Pearsall last week as they each played roughly the same number of snaps. For the season, Pearsall is outscoring Jennings, but Jennings is the higher-ranked WR in SF this week. In a tough matchup, it’s difficult to fully trust Jennings as a WR2, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Pearsall finishes higher than Jennings.
- Player: Alec Pierce
- Opponent: vs. Chiefs
Pierce is ranked as a fringe WR2 to WR3 this week. I don’t understand why. He has a poor matchup against Kansas City, which is giving up the eighth-fewest fantasy points (16.8) per game to WRs lined up on the perimeter. Pierce is heavily reliant on his fantasy production when lined up wide, where he’s scoring 90% of his points. The Chiefs tend to play two high safeties to limit the big plays, which is Pierce’s MO. If Pierce doesn’t get a couple catches of 15+ yards, he’ll be a disappointment this week, despite being a top 25 WR over the last month of football.
| Download Table as CSV | |||
| Note: Filters and sorting in the table below apply to the output | |||
| # | Defense | Total PPG Allowed | Slot PPG Allowed | Wide PPG Allowed | Slot% | Wide% | Next Opp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARZ | 27.1 | 8.3 | 18.9 | 29% | 71% | LA | |
| ATL | 37.4 | 9.4 | 28.0 | 23% | 77% | SEA | |
| BLT | 31.4 | 9.4 | 21.9 | 32% | 68% | PIT | |
| BUF | 25.2 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 49% | 51% | CIN | |
| CAR | 29.7 | 11.4 | 18.3 | 38% | 62% | BYE | |
| CHI | 34.9 | 11.2 | 23.7 | 37% | 63% | GB | |
| CIN | 18.4 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 34% | 66% | BUF | |
| CLV | 20.2 | 5.6 | 14.6 | 44% | 56% | TEN | |
| DAL | 37.2 | 11.3 | 25.8 | 27% | 73% | DET | |
| DEN | 29.3 | 9.5 | 19.8 | 41% | 59% | LV | |
| DET | 36.1 | 10.2 | 25.9 | 28% | 72% | DAL | |
| GB | 26.2 | 6.1 | 20.1 | 21% | 79% | CHI | |
| HST | 24.0 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 45% | 55% | KC | |
| IND | 32.5 | 14.3 | 18.2 | 46% | 54% | JAX | |
| JAX | 28.0 | 8.6 | 19.4 | 35% | 65% | IND | |
| KC | 28.4 | 8.5 | 19.9 | 32% | 68% | HST | |
| LA | 31.4 | 10.7 | 20.8 | 30% | 70% | ARZ | |
| LAC | 23.1 | 7.9 | 15.2 | 35% | 65% | PHI | |
| LV | 36.5 | 13.6 | 23.0 | 37% | 63% | DEN | |
| MIA | 26.1 | 10.9 | 15.2 | 45% | 55% | NYJ | |
| MIN | 23.2 | 8.5 | 14.7 | 38% | 62% | WAS | |
| NE | 27.5 | 11.4 | 16.0 | 43% | 57% | BYE | |
| NO | 24.7 | 6.0 | 18.8 | 30% | 70% | TB | |
| NYG | 33.1 | 10.3 | 22.8 | 29% | 71% | BYE | |
| NYJ | 27.0 | 8.4 | 18.6 | 30% | 70% | MIA | |
| PHI | 28.3 | 6.8 | 21.6 | 29% | 71% | LAC | |
| PIT | 35.6 | 12.8 | 22.8 | 33% | 67% | BLT | |
| SEA | 20.7 | 9.7 | 11.1 | 45% | 55% | ATL | |
| SF | 37.6 | 18.6 | 19.0 | 50% | 50% | BYE | |
| TB | 36.9 | 13.6 | 23.3 | 42% | 58% | NO | |
| TEN | 39.4 | 13.3 | 26.1 | 33% | 67% | CLV | |
| WAS | 38.7 | 15.7 | 23.0 | 40% | 60% | MIN | |
| NFL Average | 29.9 | 10.4 | 19.5 | 36% | 64% |
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