Fantasy Football Advice

Tampa Bay is not one player away from a championship by any means, but there is some reason for optimism.  And that optimism is pretty much squarely on the shoulders of Josh Freeman.  He showed flashes of quarterbacking goodness, but also a whole lot of ball control problems, which thankfully can be corrected.  He will be limited in his development due to a dearth of wide receivers after Antonio Bryant hits the bricks.  So they do need wide receivers, but they also need help in about every aspect of the game, especially on the defensive line.

The two defensive lineman that looked like they would go before the Bucs could get a sniff of them, Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy, seem like they are more of a possibility now that Sam Bradford is getting a ton of #1 pick buzz.  Many mock drafters are looking at Tennessee safety Eric Berry as the logical pick for Tampa, but if McCoy or Suh fall, they will grab either without batting an eye. Of course it looks like McCoy would be the one to fall since Suh has a slight edge over him in most scouts minds.

But what if all this Bradford talk is just that, talk?  For one, there is a chance that Bradford won’t be up to snuff medically, which would almost certainly drop him from #1 contention.  For two, Suh is considered the best player in the draft and Spagnola is a defensive minded coach.  Adam Schefter could be wrong about the Rams wanting Bradford (say it ain’t so!).  So, is Berry the pick if Suh and McCoy go #1 and #2?, gross.  I don’t see why not.  Berry fits the Tampa 2 well with his big play ability.  It is very hard to believe that someone with his skills would be a bust.  Not too many safeties have gone in the top 5, but all of them have ended up pro bowlers.  The Bucs need help in the secondary; not as much as they do on the D-line, but enough to make the Berry pick completely reasonable.  Berry and Talib could be a force together, and quickly.

An upgrade in defense could keep Freeman from playing catch up constantly, but for all intents and purposes, the first round choice of the Bucs won’t make a big impact fantasy wise in 2010.  The Bucs need a wide receiver and for any of their running backs to stay healthy and I don’t see either happening soon.  They will draft a receiver later in the draft, but whoever that is won’t matter much this season.  With an improved D, I can see the Bucs winning 5-6 games next season.  If they are lucky.

I’m not going to give any long winded diatribes on the greatness or not-so-greatness of each player.  You’ll have to wait on that as we go through our 2010 redraft rankings.  I’m giving you dynasty rankings here.  Always, and I mean always draft J.R. first.

Those numbers after their names are how old they’ll be at the beginning of the season.  Age isn’t nearly as important with quarterbacks as it is running backs, so these rankings will be similar to the redraft rankings, except of course for the ageless one, Brett Favre.  He may play until he is fifty, but if you are starting a dynasty team, Favre just isn’t worth the risk.

Tier 1

1. Aaron Rodgers 26 — Young and just getting better.

2. Drew Brees 31 — Payton and his offense aren’t going anywhere, so Brees isn’t either.

3. Peyton Manning 34 — Getting older, but he’s not slowing down.

4. Philip Rivers 28 — I almost slid him ahead of Peyton.  It scared me.

5. Tom Brady 33 — The Pats are losing some of their shine, but Brady isn’t going to stop throwing.

Tier 2

6. Tony Romo 30 — Tony, Tony, Tony will keep moving up the charts.

7. Matt Schaub 29 — Proved his durability and has a good friend in A.J.

Tier 3

8. Jay Cutler 27 — Interceptions don’t count for a lot in most leagues.

9. Matt Ryan 25 — Should get back on track.

10. Donovan McNabb 33 — Old, but still putting up top ten numbers.

11. Ben Roethlisberger 28 — Keeps improving, but seems to enjoy getting hit often.  Could be addicted to pain killers (and sexual assault investigations).

Tier 4

12. Joe Flacco 25 — Bert’s twin just got his wish, Boldin and Mason.

13. Eli Manning 29 — He looks like he lives in his mom’s basement, but will continue to throw around 4k a year.

14. Alex Smith 26 — Crabtree and Davis should keep Smith from crapping the bed again.

Tier 5

15. Matthew Stafford 22 — Might take a little while, but Megatron will ease his growing pains.

16. Chad Henne 25 — Had some big games last season.  Needs Boldin, Marshall, etc.. to show up at camp.

17. Mark Sanchez 23 — He’s in a good situation to learn and grow and all that shizz.

18. Vince Young 27 — Showed up last season when the Titans needed him.

Tier 6

19. Carson Palmer 30 — He didn’t look right against the Jets.

20. Matt Leinart 27 — Fitz makes any QB better.

21. Matt Cassel 28 — He has to show up this season or he’ll be on his way to dud town.

22. Kyle Orton 27 — Forgetting Brandon Marshall will be tough.

Tier 7

23. Kevin Kolb 26 — He is next in line to lead some very good and young receivers in a throw first offense.

24. Brett Favre 40 — I think he’ll play.  Look for one more good season.

25. Josh Freeman 22 — Has the skills and that upside thing.

26. Matt Hasselbeck 34 — He’s fallen pretty far due to an aging team and aging body.  Hair = Strength.

27. Jason Campbell 28 — Gets one more shot.  Better hope Snyder buys a new offense for Shanny.

Tier 8

28. Matt Moore 26 — He should get a shot over Delhomme.

29. Michael Vick 30 — A lot depends on where he ends up, but he’s not accurate.

30. David Garrard 31 — I don’t think he’ll be the starter for much longer.  Not good for dynasties.

Tier 9

31. Brady Quinn 25 — The Browns are looking to dump him, but still has a slim chance to start.

32. Trent Edwards 26 — Will probably be the starter next season.  Yippee.

33. Seneca Wallace 30 — Stop gap, but probably a starting stop gap.

34. Tarvaris Jackson 27 — If Favre stays home.

35. Bruce Gradkowski 27 — Was much more productive than the production black hole that is Russell.

Tier 10

36. Charlie Whitehurst 28 — Could be competing for a starting position.

36. JaMarcus Russell 25 — Not good, but I suppose he could turn things around.

37. David Carr 31 — Should backup Smith.

38. Jake Delhomme 35 — Will compete with Wallace for Browns job.

updated — 3/13/10

Since trading has ended we have decided to cut our Buy/Sell list. We will resume it at the beginning of the 2010 season.  Be sure to stay tuned to the “Comments” section below because we continually update injury status changes, etc. all the way up to game time. And as always we answer your start/sit quandaries.

Matchup Savers

Quarterback:

Mark Bulger – The Rams could get completely blown out in this contest. This should be a classic case of junk time production from Bulger.

Matthew Stafford – This could be a big week for this emerging quarterback. You know Calvin Johnson is anxious to have a productive outing after all the adversity he’s been through this year; it’d be nice to see him finish strong.

Josh Freeman – You have to imagine the Bucs are going to get blown out in this game. That could lead to some big production for Freeman in Fantasy. The odds of him throwing interceptions are higher too but the yardage/touchdown possibilities should outweigh that. (more…)

Sunday’s finally here! To start things off we have our “Matchup Savers,” players that you can start today if you’re in a pinch due to the bye week, injuries, etc. I do all of this within the context of 12 team leagues that are competitive. Often there will be more talented/valuable players than these available- take them unless you are really enamored with a certain matchup.

Quarterbacks

Mark Sanchez: At home against a poor Jags secondary with Cotchery and Marshall healthy.  He’s worth a start over Alex Smith, oh wait, he already sucked all your potential fantasy points out of your team.

Vince Young: This recommendation comes to you via the ground instead of the air.  Young can run and the Bisons cannot tackle people who run.  Just hope he doesn’t try to throw too often.

Josh Freeman: Miami is not good at stopping the pass.  Freeman showed some brass ones against the packers last Sunday.  Miami should be able to control the clock and keep Freeman off the field, but I could see him throwing a strike to Winslow and Stroughter.

Running Backs

Rock Cartwright: The forgotten Cartwright brother should get some looks with Ladell Betts’ foot hurting. Denver is tough, but maybe you have Jacobs, Bradshaw, Slaton, Portis and a possible non-starting Deangelo Williams on your team.  Oh hell, just give up.

Kevin Faulk: You never know when he’ll grab a TD.  The heroes from this Pats/Colts game will probably be the ones you least expect.

Kolby Smith: He could get goal line carries if the Chiefs get any.

Wide Receivers

Robert Meachem: With Lance Moore out and the Saints facing the Rams he is a good play.  He’s owned in 23% of yahoo leagues which means he’s owned in about half of active leagues.

Davone Bess: He’s getting the targets as of late and gets a bad Tampa Bay defense to help him out.

Sammie Stroughter: He has a lot of speed and Freeman likes him. He’s worth a flier if you need another S.S. to compliment the Steve Smiths on your team.

Tight Ends

Brandon Pettigrew: There’s a chance he’s not a free agent, but if he is and you’re wavering about your TE, you can’t go wrong with whoever is going againt the Vikings. They are giving up the most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Gary Barnidge: He plays for Carolina if you are wondering.  And he’s better than Dante Rosario who is in the process of getting Wally Pipped.  Add to that the Falcons have given up the most yards to tight ends in the league.

Bo Scaife: He’s not great by any means, but the Bills are tough against wide receivers.  I expect Young to hand it off often, run it often, and check it down often.  Scaife should get some looks.

Defenses

Tennessee: They have been looking better as of late and with CJ running all over Buffalo the defense should have time to rest up for the QB stylings of Trent Edwards.

Atlanta: Carolina has Jake Delhomme, that always helps, but if Deangelo Williams is out that really boosts Atlanta’s D and they will be a sneaky play.

Oakland: Greg Ellis should be back which will help a little. KC will be passing and I could see some picks in this game, on both sides! Oakland has played much better at home and if you are desperate you can throw them out there and hope they stay upright.

Buy and Sell

If your trade deadline hasn’t already passed it probably will this coming week. I am going to lay out the prime targets you should be buying or selling. There are going to be some obvious ones on here.

Buy High

Andre Johnson/Fitzgerald/Wayne: These are the three receivers I’m laying out there as the best of the best going forward. Nothing mind blowing here. Johnson and Fitzgerald, in particular, have RIDICULOUS playoff schedules.

MJD/AP/Ronnie Brown/Ray Rice/Chris Johnson/DeAngelo Williams: This opens up a can of worms about other guys I left out/dudes that arguably shouldn’t be in this group. Nabbing any of these uber-elite players should certainly help your chances of going deep in the playoffs.

Peyton Manning/Philip Rivers/Drew Brees: This is the same grouping except for quarterbacks. It’ll probably be difficult to pry them away from their owners unless they have a really good secondary quarterback.

Vincent Jackson: Speaking of sweet playoff schedules….. Jackson started off the season hot and hasn’t slowed down since. The playoff schedule is right in your wheelhouse. I’m buying all day on him.

Sell High

Marion Barber: The whole world’s convinced that Barber’s multiple injuries are behind him. Sweet. Now you can unload him in case the masses are wrong (which happens OFTEN). I really am just not a big believer in messing around with injured players. This is an ideal situation because his value has recovered so you can get enough for him.

Miles Austin: Why you hatin’ on the Cowboys, yo? Here’s a great rule of thumb for you- whatever ESPN Analcysts profess, expect the opposite. The Cowboys are the greatest team ever- allegedly. Look they implode every year. Zero leadership, zero discipline. I’ll go out on that ledge right now. Even if you don’t agree with me you should be selling Miles Austin for the right price.

DeSean Jackson: He just isn’t getting enough catches. It’s tough to recommend selling him because he’s such a game breaker but the Eagles are too keen on spreading the wealth. Their Marxist-Lenninist philosophy leaves too many questions unanswered going in to the fantasy playoffs for me.

Ricky Williams: I’ve seen him dealt at a very high value in a lot of trades. There’s no reason to dislike what he’s done so far but the touches aren’t where you’d like them. If it weren’t for some longish touchdown runs in some games his production would be a lot lower than it is right now. If you can get value I’d feel very good about dealing him.

Hines Ward: He can’t possibly be this productive all season. I’m just saying…

Mario Manningham: Not that you’re going to get a ton for him or anything but unless you’re in a keeper league I’d look to deal him as part of a multi-player deal. The later in the year it gets in Giants stadium the harder it gets to throw the football. Add to that Steve Smith is clearly the #1 and Hakeem Nicks is getting more and more targets since getting healthy.

Buy Low

Brandon Jacobs: I hate Brandon Jacobs, the New York Giants, and everything that either one of them love. But the reality is that Jacobs has to be better going forward than he has been to this point. Bradshaw won’t usurp him as the #1 guy (a broken foot tends to make it harder to play football) and the Giants offense should be able to score points consistently.

Anquan Boldin: It’s time for Boldin to stud it up. I’m not going to go on a long diatribe and repeat myself from previous weeks. If you’re going to place a wager throw it down on this guy.

Beanie Wells: I’m buying Cardinals whenever I get a chance. The schedule is too good.  Wells has been a tough trade target because of his potential, but Hightower keeps doing his thing and holding Beanie at bay.  I can’t guarantee Wells will blow up in the second half, but I think he’s worth the risk for anybody who needs to make a push to get in the playoffs.

Dwayne Bowe: Hey this is Doc speaking, Drew hates Dwayne Bowe, so he would never say to buy him; I’m going rogue here! The Chiefs are a horrible, horrible team, but with LJ gone and my man Lance Long in the slot and Chris Chambers giving some name recognition to the #2 position I see ex-Pat Haley going for a pass heavy offense.  Does Bowe live up to his potential? No, but he shows flashes and with more opportunities even a blind squirrel can find a nut. His schedule isn’t great, but I think he can be had for cheap and Asomugha may make him even cheaper.  If you are looking to shake things up, take a flier on him.

Sell Low

LaDanian Tomlinson: His value has recovered somewhat; take what you can get now and run with it. He just doesn’t look strong running the football. It’s sad to see such a great player on the decline but its happening. Oh well, Hall of Fame shouldn’t be that bad.

Steve Smith (CAR): You might be able to trick someone into thinking that he isn’t bad anymore. Hopefully he’ll score a couple touchdowns today and boost his value up.

Greg Jennings: Deep threat receiver with a quarterback who might get sacked a record number of times. I tried to come up with something to like about his situation but I got nuttin.

Matt Ryan: He’s going to be great quarterback. In long term keeper leagues it’s legitimate to want to hang on to him. Otherwise his schedule the rest of the way is horrible and you should move him if the value’s there.

Roddy White: High up on the list of dudes you don’t want heading in to the playoffs in fantasy football, particularly as a high round pick. If you can get something decent in return I’d feel pretty good about it.

The Chiefs only gave Jamaal Charles 9 touches when they should have given him 99.  Haley gave too many looks to Smith and Savage which just seems ignorant.  Smith was just activated and Savage hasn’t done anything.  Charles has shown he can run in the NFL so hey, I’ve got a good idea, let’s just give these other schmohawks a chance to ruin any chance for the offense to get in a rhythm. What happens from here depends on what the plan is for LJ.  Time to sit and wait.  And fume.

Clinton Portis was knocked unconscious early in the game which gave Ladell Betts the chance to get some work and be productive with nearly 100 total yards and a touchdown.  There is a good chance that they will hold Portis out next week against Denver as well as Jim Zorn and Doug Williams may also come out of retirement.  Pick up Ladell Betts if you need a running back that might see more than 15 touches.

Chris Chambers: He caused some buzz in the 4th quarter by grabbing two TD passes.  Could this be the start of something special? If “special” means one hit wonder, then yes. You can pick him up because he is the #2 receiver now, but I wouldn’t waste a high priority on him.

Alex Smith: He looked okay at times and horrible most of the time. He threw 46 passes which means Singletary has some weird deluded confidence in him.  I want to throw him back into the scrap heap of busted #1 picks, but I’m going to stick it out for now.  And when I say stick it out, well, you know.

Brandon Pettigrew: He has the skills to be a consistent tight end, but is still a rookie and has a rookie QB.  He’s worth gambling on if you are playing Russian roulette with tight ends anyway, but don’t get all giddy over his 7 receptions, 70 yards and a TD against the Seahawks.

Vernon Davis: The bust has gone and busted out into a huge fantasy tight end.  10 catches for 102 yards is starting to look near to normal for VD. I don’t see Alex Smith getting benched anytime soon so be glad you have Davis.  If someone wants to sell high on him and you need a TE, take them up on it.

LenDale White: He may have lost weight, but seems a lot heavier because of all that dead weight.  Dump him in the free agency pool.

DeAngelo Williams: He’s just too fast and too good and now John Fox is finally running like he means it.  Delhomme is just too bad and too not good that they need to keep the ball on the ground to have a chance.  Be glad you have Williams.

Julius Jones: He’s not very good, but he’ll do something once in a while.  He’s on pace for over 1,000 yards.  Justin Forsett is the third down back, but Jones is still getting the majority of the touches.  He is what we thought he was.  No need to crown his ass.

Marques Colston: He had some drops and Meachem and Henderson got most of the numbers.  Colston is still the only safe play out of the Saints’ wide receivers week to week.  If someone is worried about this game, take Colston away from them because they don’t deserve him.

Calvin Johnson: Megatron is still a top 5 wide receiver talent, but if you own him you aren’t thinking that right now! Stafford needs to at least get the ball close to him so he can make his other worldly catches.  I’m still buying no matter how long it’s been since he has shown he can be fantasy relevant!

LaDainian Tomlinson: It’s been said over and over, LT is done.  He is still getting looks which gives him some value, but at this point Julius Jones is outplaying him.

Anquan Boldin: He was inactive while the Cardinals humiliated the Bears and was none too happy about it.  He called out his coach for not being man enough to tell him beforehand.  I don’t think any of that really matters though.  The Cardinals have the easiest schedule against the pass for the rest of the season so this is a perfect time to go after Boldin.  He probably could have played, but now with a week off he should be able to go and give you good numbers going forward.

Lance Long: He had 8 receptions for 74 yards against the Jags.  If the Chiefs stick with this pass first mentality and use Charles ala Westbrook, we could see Long being useful out of the slot in ppr leagues. Oh, and his name is Lance Long, which is cool.

Josh Freeman: He only completed 14 passes, but made them count with 3 of them going for touchdowns in beating what should have been the better Packer team.  Freeman looked like a live body out there, but he’s not going to be worth a start anytime soon because he is just too erratic.

Carson Palmer: He didn’t have a huge fantasy game, but he looked good.  He has a decent playoff schedule and probably could be had a little cheaper than your top tier QB’s.  I’d target him if you’re running Ryan or someone even more schmoful out there.

Ronnie Brown: Two down games for Brown while Williams grabs TD’s may give you a shot at trading for him. I know it seems like RB is getting all his toys taken away from him, but I think Sparano is going to correct that trend.  Brown is the best player on their team and it is obvious when watching him run.

Greg Olsen: He probably won’t catch three touchdowns in a game for the rest of his career. The Bears were getting embarrassed and were throwing it often.  Even Earl Bennett had 90+ yards.  See if you can sell high on Olsen.

Steve Slaton and Ryan Moats: If you own either you can’t be very happy with Sunday’s results.  Moats was the “feature” back while Slaton got the 3rd down looks.  Slaton got into the end zone and didn’t fumble while Moats got in the end zone and did, but that didn’t seem to change much.  They are both going to be spot flex starts at best until one of them asserts himself.

Beanie Wells: 13 carries for 70 yards in a backup role once again to Hightower.  Remember his schedule and his ability.  All signs point to him not sucking the second half of the season.

Chad Ochocinco: He tried to bribe the ref with a dollar.  I’m thinking his meds need to be upped.