Fantasy Football Advice

Week 10 Roundtable, Raves and Busters

November 12, 2009 By: Doc Category: 2009 Fantasy Football 39 Comments →

Lady and gentlepersons, welcome to week 10 of the NFL season! As usual it is going way too fast and we will soon be left to fondle our Ben Roethlisberger fatheads and start planning next year’s top 10, can you say Ray Rice?  So do your best to savor each moment! Thankfully Thursday night football is here to fray the already severely frayed knot that binds what relationships you are tenuously holding together, but it’s football, what good is “social interaction” and “love” when you can manage your fantasy team to Canton, or more likely some place online where they give you a digitized trophy? For a fantasy breakdown of tonight’s game take a look at my post over at Bears Blitz.  Yeah, I know, the Bears suck!

Here is our weekly installment of sleepers and busts. Bow to our greatness:

Three Sleepers

Chet Gresham, Here and Now

Jerricho Cotchery, WR: The Cotch Rocket should be all healed up and has a nice #1 receiver to take away some pressure in the way of Braylon “playing for the money” Edwards.  He also gets a team in Jacksonville that ranks last in DVOA to #2 wide receivers. He’s a must start this week.

Mark Sanchez, QB: To carry on with the J-E-T-S theme I’m liking a lot of their players this week up against the Jags.  Sanchez has shown he can have clunkers, but his last game before the bye was a strong one versus the weak Dolphins secondary. I feel like he can have a productive game at home off the bye against a poor Jags secondary.

Kolby Smith, RB: No, not Thomas Jones! I can only stomach so many Jets players at a time! I don’t like Kolby Smith (It’s a long story.  Essentially he tried to kill my dog.), but I think Haley does like him, at least as an inside runner.  You know I like Jamaal Charles because I own him, but my last conversation with Haley was heated on this subject.  We decided that to remain friends we would agree to disagree. I think Todd is going to give Smith a shot at the goal line.  Will he be able to convert? I’m kind of hoping not for my very selfish reasons, but since he should get the chance he’s worth a flier in deep leagues against a poor Raiders defense.

Three Busts

Matt Schauf, Rapid Draft.com

Roddy White, WR: Carolina faced the loaded pass offenses of Arizona and New Orleans over the past two weeks and allowed a total of one touchdown pass to wide receivers. Even that one to Robert Meachem last Sunday came from 54 yards out. Such big plays have been a big part of White’s success this year, as four of his six touchdowns have come from at least 31 yards away. His chances of adding to that total don’t seem great this week, however, for two main reasons. White continues to deal with a knee injury that had him questionable for the Washington game, and the Panthers don’t give up many big pass plays. They’ve allowed the fifth fewest passes of 20 yards or more (16) all year. White scored in the first meeting between these teams but also tallied just 53 yards on his six catches. As Matt Ryan has struggled a bit and the team has leaned more heavily on Michael Turner lately, White has caught four passes or fewer in three of the past four games. He has also been held to less than 60 yards in all but two outings. Those numbers don’t matter too much if you find the end zone, but they make for a pretty mediocre fantasy day when you don’t.

Greg Olsen, TE: Every tight end that has garnered at least eight targets against the Niners so far has come away with at least six catches. Unfortunately for Olsen, there has only been one game so far in which Jay Cutler threw that many passes his way. The outlook gets worse if you don’t play in a point-per-reception format, as Owen Daniels has posted the only touchdown by a tight end against San Francisco this season. The list of tight ends who played the Niners and didn’t find the end zone includes Dallas Clark, Tony Gonzalez, John Carlson and Visanthe Shiancoe. Throw in Chicago’s utter lack of a running game, and it’s not hard to imagine the Bears struggling to get close enough for Olsen to get some of the red-zone looks that led to his big game last Sunday.

Kyle Orton, QB: When you see Washington come up on the schedule this year, it’s easy to think of a thoroughly terrible team against which any opponent can get right. This isn’t the week for Orton to do so, though. No quarterback has thrown for more than one touchdown on Washington all season, and although plenty of weak passers adorn that list, it also includes Donovan McNabb, Matt Ryan and Eli Manning. In part because the Washington offense has been so anemic, only two opposing quarterbacks have even reached 200 yards the team. Let’s not discredit the Washington defense, though, which has held opponents to the sixth fewest yards per attempt. Denver has had its once attractive running game stuffed by Baltimore and Pittsburgh the past two weeks and can use this far less challenging matchup to get things going again in that area.

Quarterbacks

Bryan Fontaine, Rookie Blitz

Sleeper: Brett Favre: The Vikings got a much needed week of rest after the emotional win for Favre in his return to Lambeau Field.  Favre has surprisingly been a top 10 option at QB thus far in 2009, and this week he draws a juicy matchup with one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.  The Lions are allowing an average of 18.6 points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Favre will have no issues finding his receivers very open all day.  In their Week 2 matchup, Favre completed 23 of 27 passes for 155 yards and 2 touchdowns.  He should easily score for several touchdowns, but also approach the 300 yard mark in passing.  Start Favre with confidence this week.

Bust: David Garrard: David Garrard’s on again, off again 2009 season is about to hit the skids yet again.  Garrard finished in the 10 top last week for quarterbacks due to a matchup against the weak Kansas City Chiefs and an offensive explosion by Mike Sims-Walker.  The Jets have been one of the toughest matchups so far in 2009 for opposing quarterbacks allowing only 7 fantasy points per game on average.  Darrelle Revis should have no problem containing Sims-Walker, and the constant pressure from the blitzing Jets defense won’t give Garrard any time to find any of the other Jaguars receivers.

Running Backs

Jason Sarney, Fantasy Phenoms

Sleeper: Mike Bell: We over at Fantasy Phenoms had this one circled for weeks. With Bell and the Saints heading into St. Louis in Week 10, this game should be in the books before the 2nd quarter. Look for Bell to get plenty of second half carries, as Pierre Thomas will likely be resting much of the latter part of the contest. If Bell touches the rock 15 times, he will certainly produce quality fantasy stats against the leagues 27th ranked rush defense. If you have both Thomas as well as Bell…play’em both.

Bust: Rashard Mendenhall: I’ve got nothing but love for Mendenhall overall, but in Week 10 against the Bengals’ 2nd ranked rush defense, look for the Steelers to go to the air the majority of the game. Inversely, the Bengals’ pass defense is suspect, and a bottom 10 unit, so look for Big Ben and his weapons to be the main source of production for the Steelers.

Wide Receiver

Ginny Loveless, Football Diehards

Sleeper: Robert Meachem: This play is somewhat contingent on the availability of Lance Moore, but the mid-week report is that Moore still has not practiced, and hasn’t practiced since Week 8. With that said, Meachem has an excellent match-up this week against a Rams secondary that is 30th in the league in passing yards allowed per game at home, 257.7. They allow a league worst 9.2 yards per attempt. The Rams are also 29th in points per game allowed at 27.6. Meachem is coming off a game that saw him targeted a season-high 6 times, in which he led the Saints receivers with 5 catches for 98 yards including a highlight reel 54-yard touchdown score. Meachem is producing when Brees goes to him, and this game for the Saints should be a high-scoring wide-open affair, with plenty of fantasy points to go around for this offensive juggernaut.

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Bust: Mike Sims-Walker: All the stats stack up against Sims-Walker this week. First off, he’s on the road, and the Jacksonville passing attack has been horrible in away games, averaging only 150.5 yards passing a game. In comparison, they average 291.0 yards passing a game at home. The last time we saw MSW on the road was against Tennessee where he had two catches for nine yards. In sizing up the Jaguars opponent, the Jets, they are 3rd in the league in allowing only 145.2 yards passing a game at home. The are especially stingy to the wide receiver position where they are 2nd in the league in allowing only 8.8 receptions per game, and 1st in lowest yards allowed to the position per game at 96. Jets are also 2nd in the league in allowing only three wide receiver touchdowns.

Tight Ends

Jim Day, Fantasy Football Whiz

Sleeper: Brandon Pettigrew: Pettigrew looks to be fully healthy again and with Calvin Johnson on the field to take some of the pressure off, Pettigrew had his best game as a pro with 7 receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown on 8 targets in week 9. In week 10 he faces a Vikings defense that is 32nd against opposing TEs. Detroit will most likely get behind early and Pettigrew might be the only player that can actually get open against Minnesota.

Bust: Dustin Keller: Keller is coming off his best fantasy game of the year in week 8 when he was the Jets leading receiver against the Dolphins. He recorded 8 receptions for 76 yards and a touchdown. The Jets had a bye in week 9 but this week they face a Jacksonville team that has not allowed any TEs over 39 yards and has only allowed 1 TD all year to TEs. Find a better option than Keller. The Jets should be able to run all day on the Jaguars and will look to take shots deep against a defense that only has 8 sacks and 5 INTs on the season.

Defenses

Greg Dietz, Big Troph

Sleeper: Chicago Bears: The Bears have been a dreadful defense for you if you picked them up in the beginning of the year. They rank in the bottom third in fantasy football this season and with guys like Brian Urlacher and Pisa Tinoisamoa down for the year, it is easy to see why. However, this week they head to San Francisco on Thursday night to face off against a San Francisco team that hasn’t won in four consecutive weeks despite the re-emergence of QB Alex Smith. I expect Nathan Vasher and Charles Tillman to drape the 49ers’ wide receivers and come up with a couple interceptions which will be a nice surprise for owners in need of a defensive pickup in week 10.

Bust: Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis might be the best all around team in football. Their offense is quite obviously one of the most proficient in the league and is supporting what has been at times, a patchwork defense.. And while the secondary made due last week without Bob Sanders, Kelvin Hayden, and Marlin Jackson, it is going to catch up with them on Sunday night. Tom Brady will exploit every nook and cranny of the Indianapolis defense and turn the game into a shootout which never spells good news for fantasy defense owners. If you have to start Indy, do what you must, but I’d be seeing if I could pick up someone at least for week 10.

Baseball vs. Football (Apologies to George Carlin)

November 04, 2009 By: mgeoffriau Category: 2009 Fantasy Football 24 Comments →

As I flipped back and forth between MNF and the World Series (and thought over my fantasy baseball and fantasy football seasons), I couldn’t help but compile a mental fantasy baseball vs. fantasy football monologue in my head. Most of it probably only made sense to me in that moment, but through it I realized that the same reasons that people give for fantasy football being easier than fantasy baseball are also the same reasons it can be harder. The player pool is smaller, the scoring is simpler, and it doesn’t require researching 3 levels of minor leagues to have an edge when the latest prospect gets called up. This makes things easier for you. But it also means it’s harder for you to gain an advantage by simply outworking your opponents. The “experts” are all analyzing the same players and dealing with the same random nature of football, meaning most of them will give you the same advice, and when someone does go out on a limb and get it right, it’s usually too late to take advantage of it (how many of you had already picked up Ryan Moats when Drew mentioned him weeks ago?).

The point is this: the information, to a certain degree, is limited. We’re all getting better at figuring out what information is pertinent and what isn’t, but at a certain point football can’t be broken down like baseball can. It’s not played in discrete chunks, player vs. player, that are easily represented by statistics. So the advantage to be had is in filtering out the noise and when you take risks, you take the best calculated risk the situation allows. Risk assessment. Fantasy baseball is like chess — fantasy football is like poker. You may be more skilled than your opponent and still lose. We want to provide the information that gives you the best understanding of the risks.

Let’s recap how the system works here: start with your basic ranking of players, and then consider -1 and +1 ratings to move the player to the bottom or top of their current tier. A -2 and +2 rating bumps them into the tier below or above their normal position. The team’s pass defense ranking (in passing yards allowed per game) is in parentheses.

1 PM games

Washington (2nd) @ Atlanta (31st)

The Redskins offense had a surprisingly effective pass attack against the Eagles in Week 7. Jason Campbell had a solid fantasy line (284 yards, 2 TD’s) and even managed to get the ball 6 times to Santana Moss. Campbell should still be considered a highly risky play even against a relatively poor secondary like Atlanta’s (of course, lots of secondaries look bad after a game against the Saints). He’s just as likely to get the hook at halftime as he is throw for 250+ yards. Of particular note is the loss of Chris Cooley. If you need a TE and Fred Davis wasn’t picked up because of the bye week, grab him now. Davis and Cooley combined for 10 catches, 99 yards, and a touchdown — most of it by Davis after Cooley went down. That total is a little optimistic, but Davis has the situation and talent to put up excellent numbers.

WAS: Campbell 0, Moss +1, Davis +1

SSDD. Things don’t get any easier for Matty Ice(cold) this week. The Washington defense is legit, particularly its secondary. The Redskins held Celek to 3 catches for 8 yards, so don’t expect a monster day from Tony Gonzalez, but he’s still a must play on most rosters. DeSean Jackson’s big plays against might give hope to Roddy White owners, but they get their big gains in different ways so I’m not sure White will be as successful. Jenkins continues to produce just enough to tease but not enough to warrant a pickup.

ATL: Ryan -2, White -1, Gonzalez -1

Green Bay (9th) @ Tampa Bay (15th)

The issue with Greg Jennings this year seemed to be pass protection (or lack thereof). With Rodgers constantly under pressure, the offense didn’t have the time necessary to set up downfield pass plays, instead relying on over the middle shots to Driver and the TE’s. Well, Rodgers was sacked 6 times by the Vikings defense, and he still managed to find Jennings 8 times for 88 yards and a score. Is Jennings back? I’m not sure he won’t turn in a few more stinkers, but he is definitely playable — the Packers are finding ways to get him the ball. If you’re looking for a long shot TE, check out Spencer Havner — he only caught 2 passes, but both were for touchdowns. Clearly, the red zone offense is set up for some TE targets, so take advantage. Tampa’s not even as good as their mid-pack ranking (and don’t rush the passer nearly as well as the Vikings), so start all your Packers with confidence.

GB: Rodgers +2, Jennings +2, Driver +2, Havner +2

Meh. The Bucs’ pass offense isn’t even bad in an exciting way, like the Raiders — they are boringly bad. The dullest quarterback controversy in the history of the NFL sucks almost all of the value out of this offense. Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow are talented receivers, but you are rolling the dice if you start them. Both could just as easily turn in 2 catch, 18 yard days as they could bust 100+ yards and score a couple times. Use only if you are in a bad, bad way and need all the high-risk you can fit on a roster.

TB: Joshes -2, Bryant -1, Winslow -1

Miami (12th) @ New England (5th)

I’m not sure the Patriots secondary is nearly so good as that number may indicate — they have had the good fortune of facing the Titans and Bucs offenses the previous 2 games. Of course, Miami’s pass offense might be closer to those 2 teams than they are to the units that had success like the Broncos. The Dolphins mustered just 112 yards passing last week against the Jets (and lost 60 in sack yardage). I don’t like young quarterbacks facing the Patriots (even Sanchize only threw for 163 yards and a single touchdown) — this is not the week to take a risk with Henne and the Dolphins. They just don’t throw enough to make Bess, Camarillo, Fasano, the newly promoted Hartline (goose-egg), or the newly demoted Ginn (goose egg in the passing game) worthwhile.

MIA: Henne -2, Bess -1, Camarillo -2, Fasano-2, Hartline -2, Ginn -2

This isn’t quite the creampuff matchup that the Patriots enjoyed against the Titans and Bucs, but the same principle stands — New England doesn’t have the RB depth to pound the ball, so expect 30+ passes from Brady. Welker will again be used to move the chains with occasional downfield shots to Moss. Aiken bears watching after catching a long TD in Week 7. Normally Ben Watson doesn’t get enough looks for my liking, but this is a nice matchup for him, and he often sneaks a red zone TD even when he’s not being targeted frequently.

NE: Brady +1, Welker +2, Moss +1, Watson +1, Aikin 0

Kansas City (28th) @ Jacksonville (26th)

Cassel was horrible against San Diego before the bye week, but if you’re stuck with waiver options at QB I think he’s playable here. Bowe salvaged his 11 yard day by recording a touchdown, while Bobby Wade racked up 66 yards, but Bowe’s the only one you want to be playing. If you’re stuck with Bowe on your roster, this is the week you play him — and if you can’t play him here, then go ahead and sell low on him, because the situation just isn’t going to get a lot better.

KC: Cassel +1, Bowe +2, Wade +1

What a mess. After Garrard threw 2 picks and barely completed 50% of his passes (meanwhile, MJD averaged 22 yards a carry but was only given the ball 8 times) against the Titans, the scuttlebutt is that Garrard’s decision-making is under question (oh really?) and that he may be “handcuffed” to avoid costly mistakes (you don’t say!). Garrard was already an up-and-down fantasy QB, so this may not change his value that much, but it could have devastating consequences for Mike Sims-Walker and Torry Holt. For now, cross your fingers and hope that Garrard regains the coaching staff’s trust in a tasty matchup against the Chiefs, but be prepared to sell just a little low on Sims-Walker and Holt if it’s apparent they aren’t getting the downfield targets.

JAC: Garrard -1, Sims-Walker -1, Holt -1, Thomas -1, Lewis 0

Houston (14th) @ Indianapolis (7th)

If I told you that a talented Houston player would rank at the top of his fantasy position for 8 weeks before being lost to injury, you’d have guessed Matt Schaub, right? Oh wait…I guess you could also guess Andre Johnson. Maybe Houston needs a better sports medicine department. Anyway, Owen Daniels is lost for the year, and that means potentially big value changes for 2 players. Kevin Walter goes from being the 3rd wheel to Andre Johnson’s sidekick, and Joel Dreessen gets the opportunity to fill in for Daniels. For now, assume most of that extra value goes to Walter, but keep an eye on Dreessen — a lot of the Texans’ playbook revolved around Daniels so I think he’ll get some looks. For now, Schaub’s value dips just a little, and Andre Johnson’s holds steady. Oh yeah. They’re playing Indy, who is really, really, really good at suppressing long pass plays. Did I mention Kevin Walter’s value is going up?

HOU: Schaub -1, Johnson -1, Walter +1, Jones -1, Dreessen +1, Daniels (drop)

Following our quiz motif for this game, if I told you a Colt passer had a perfect QB rating in last week’s game, would you guess…Manning? Sorgi? Whoever is the 3rd string QB? Nope, it’s Joseph Addai! The Colts had a tough time scoring against the 49ers, but that didn’t stop Manning from racking up 347 yards. Pray to the fantasy football gods that a RB doesn’t steal a passing touchdown this week. In other news, Reggie Wayne is the first WR to be targeted 20 times in a game. Until Anthony Gonzalez returns in full health, Wayne is the big play guy and the clutch 3rd-down guy, all wrapped into one. With Owen Daniels down for the count, Dallas Clark is now clearly the best fantasy TE in the game. Gonzalez isn’t expected back this week, so Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon are playable as well.

IND: Manning 0, Wayne +1, Clark 0, Collie 0, Garcon 0

Baltimore (19th) @ Cincinnati (30th)

The difference between fantasy and real football can be seen in Flacco’s last game against Denver. 175 yards and a single touchdown is barely acceptable in fantasy; in real life, he completed 80% of his passes, didn’t turn it over, and got what yardage was available from a tough Broncos D. That doesn’t help you if you started him, but it’s a good sign — even against tough opponents, he’s not likely to implode. Fortunately, that’s not a concern this week. Now that the Bengals are the 3rd worst team in passing yardage against, can we stop talking about their surprising defense? Expect Mason to top the receiving yardage again; neither Mark Clayton nor Kelley Washington are productive enough to consider playing. Heap remains a low-risk, low-reward option.

BAL: Flacco +2, Mason +2, Clayton +1, Washington +1, Heap +1

The question here is this: does one look at Baltimore’s ranking and year-to-date statistics, or does one look at the last game against a previously successful Denver offense? The Ravens used more blitzes and defensive shifts to pressure Orton instead of letting the front four go at it and hoping the secondary holds up. The smart play here is to assume that the Ravens aren’t quite the easy mark they were early in the year, but Palmer and Ochocinco are too talented to downgrade much. Unfortunately, after some nice early games, Andre Caldwell seems to have fallen back to the pack — Caldwell, Coles, and Henry are converging in value, making none of them more than spot WR3 starts.

CIN: Palmer 0, Ochocinco 0, Caldwell -1, Coles 0, Henry 0

Arizona (20th) @ Chicago (12th)

Are the Bears the team that held the Browns to 74 yards passing or the team that gave up 5 TD’s to Carson Palmer? Probably somewhere in the middle, but I wouldn’t be worried about starting your Cardinals in this game. Anquan Boldin aggravated his sprained ankle last week; even if he plays, I’d upgrade Steve Breaston just because he’s likely to be involved more than usual. If Boldin does play, keep him in your lineup — he can be productive even when hobbled.

ARI: Warner +1, Fitzgerald +1, Boldin -1, Breaston +1

Starting to worry about Jay Cutler as your starting QB? You should be (this applies to Bears fans and Cutler owners alike). The Browns are not a good pass defense, and Cutler managed just 225 yards with no TD’s and a pick against them. After leaving the Detroit game with an injury, Hester has logged 3 straight games of 80+ yards — but he also missed Wednesday’s practice with an ankle injury. If Hester can’t play, upgrade Knox. Bennett seems to have been pushed to WR3 status. At this point, accept the fact that Olsen is a steady but unexciting TE.

CHI: Cutler -1, Hester 0, Knox 0/+1, Bennett 0, Olsen 0

4 PM games

Detroit (27th) @ Seattle (18th)

Stafford couldn’t put together a good game against St. Louis. You don’t want to play him here. For the sake of argument, if Calvin Johnson plays, Stafford gets a little upgrade, but it’s not enough to start him. CJ looked good in Wednesday’s practice but remains a game-time decision. Play him if he starts, but not over other top-tier WR’s. Pettigrew has yet to put together a second game so ignore him for now. Northcutt led in looks last week but Bryant Johnson made the plays. Don’t start either.

DET: Stafford -1, Calvin Johnson 0, Pettigrew -1, Northcutt -1, Bryant Johnson 0

I really thought that Dallas would put more pressure on Hasselbeck, but the Seahawks put together a nice game against the Cowboys. Clearly, this is a much better matchup and Hasselbeck, Burleson, Houshmandzadeh, and Carlson are all playable here. If you are considering starting Hasselbeck over a top-tier starter with a tougher matchup, remember that everything you’re reading about Hasselbeck is the same stuff people said about Bulger last week. It’s not a perfect parallel, since Hasselbeck has more experienced and talented receivers, but take it as fair warning. Burleson is returning punts which is a nice boost for return yardage leagues.

SEA: Hasselbeck +2, Burleson +2, Houshmandzadeh +1, Carlson +1

Carolina (1st) @ New Orleans (17th)

If the Panthers stick to their new gameplan, they’ll probably win more, but it’s going to cut into Delhomme’s production (and by extension, Steve Smith’s production). Delhomme isn’t playable until we see whether he’ll be allowed to throw the ball more than 15-20 times a game. Depending on your roster, you might be stuck playing Smith, but you’ve got to cross your fingers and hope he connects on a deep throw for a TD. Not a great situation, not a great matchup. Avoid it if you can.

CAR: Delhomme -2, Smith -1

So are you going to be the guy that didn’t learn his lesson when he benched Drew Brees against the (formerly) #1 Giants pass defense? Yes, the Panthers picked off Warner 5 times. Doesn’t matter. Brees may not have his best game of the year, but at this point it’s a fool’s wager to bet against him. Devery Henderson is separating himself from the pack as the WR2, and Colston and Shockey are must starts. Start downgrading Moore and Meachem — most weeks the ball is spread around too much for either to put together a big number.

NO: Brees 0, Colston 0, Shockey +1, Henderson +1, Moore -1, Meachem -1

Tennessee (32nd) @ San Francisco (29th)

As expected, the QB switch to Vince Young proved to be detrimental to the Titans’ WR group. Nate Washington salvaged his day with a TD, but nobody had more than 41 yards total. For the time being, expect Gage, Washington, and Britt to be nearly unplayable in all formats. Scaife might enjoy an upgrade if Young checks down more often that Collins.

TEN: Young 0, Gage -1, Washington -1, Britt -1, Scaife 0

I have to admit — I’m very interested to see what Alex Smith does this week. He managed just under 200 yards and a TD against a tough Indy secondary; it’s not hard to imagine he could easily top 200 yards with a couple TD’s this week. He’s got athletic weapons in Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree and an experienced outlet in Isaac Bruce, and his decision-making looks much, much better than his first go-round as a starter. Definitely worth stashing in 2 QB leagues. Josh Morgan seems to have gotten the worst of the Crabtree promotion, so don’t rely on him for anything right now. Last week’s game didn’t convince me that the Titans are anything but a bad pass defense, so Smith, Crabtree, and Davis all get the bad-defense upgrade.

SF: Smith +1, Crabtree +1, Davis +1, Bruce 0, Morgan -1

San Diego (6th) @ New York Giants (3rd)

Since the Saints opened the floodgates, nobody seems to be scared of the Giants’ pass defense at all. Given San Diego’s general inability to run the ball (and the strength of the Giants D-line), I expect Rivers to pass a lot in this game, using dumpoffs to Tomlinson and Gates to move the chains. Malcolm Floyd takes over the WR2 position from now-released Chris Chambers and gets an automatic +1 for the promotion, but we won’t have real gauge on his production level for a couples games. For now, assume he’ll get about the same number of looks as Chambers but converts a higher percentage of them (ideally, somewhere north of 50%).

SD: Rivers 0, Vincent Jackson 0, Gates +1, Floyd +1

While I don’t expect a Delhomme-style handcuffing, it would make sense for the Giants to pound the ball with Jacobs and Bradshaw here. Eli’s been making mistakes, the WR core is a little dinged up, and San Diego is about as bad a stopping the run as it is shutting down the passing game. Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks will have some trouble with the athletic SD corners, and while Manningham returned to practice on Wednesday, he’s been losing time to Nicks anyway. Kevin Boss had an excellent game last week, but injured his ankle — if he starts, he’s playable, but have a backup plan ready.

NYG: Manning -1, Smith -1, Nicks -1, Manningham -2, Boss -1

8 PM game

Dallas (22nd) @ Philadelphia (10th)

This is a tough matchup for Dallas — Romo, Austin, and Witten are too good to bench, but the Eagles blitz-happy attack induces mistakes and this could be difficult for a risk-taking QB like Romo. Still, there should be yards available in the passing game so don’t downgrade Romo too much other than expecting 1 or 2 INT’s. Roy Williams has been complaining publicly about his role and chemistry with Romo; there’s been no word concerning team discipline, but I’d downgrade him a bit anyway. Crayton is marginal except in return-yardage leagues. Witten owners should hope he’s over his case of the drops, because Kevin Boss demonstrated there’s room in the Philly defense for a TE to take advantage.

DAL: Romo -1, Austin 0, Williams -2, Crayton -1/0, Witten 0

The Cowboy’s pass defense is improving but Seattle proved they can still be thrown on. Celek re-established his offensive role last week, and DeSean Jackson is a WR1 whether it’s a return yardage league or not. Jeremy Maclin is getting consistent looks and I like him to tally 4-6 catches this week. There’s not much value beyond that — Avant shows up every couple of weeks, but it’s not enough to rely on.

PHI: McNabb +1, Jackson +2, Maclin +1, Celek 0

Monday game

Pittsburgh (16th) @ Denver (8th)

Denver’s defense wasn’t as bad as the points total looked last week — they still held Flacco to 175 yards and a touchdown. That line happens to be identical to the line Roethlisberger put up against Minnesota in Week 7. With FWP returning to action, we may be seeing the Steelers shifting the offensive load off of Roethlisberger. He still may be successful, but that success may not translate into fantasy numbers. With that in mind (and Denver’s secondary), I think a downgrade is in order for most of the Steelers. I have a feeling Ward may find some room underneath the secondary so he’s exempt. I don’t like Wallace’s chances of busting a long one this week.

PIT: Roethlisberger -1, Holmes -1, Ward 0, Miller -1, Wallace -1

I think Orton may be forced to throw frequently as I don’t see Denver having much success running the ball on Pittsburgh. I’m not sure if that’s good or bad — lots of attempts against a good defense generally produce turnovers. Orton’s smart enough to avoid bad interceptions, but it won’t be surprising if Polamalu catches one. Royal’s been horrible at converting the targets he’s getting into catches, but it’s worth noting he got as many looks as Marshall did last week, so they are trying to get him involved in the offense. After a nice game in Week 6, Scheffler reverted back to almost worthless status (and was outgained by Daniel Graham) — dump him and roll the dice with someone else.

DEN: Orton -1, Marshall 0, Royal -1, Scheffler -1

The Weak Ones For Week One

September 12, 2009 By: Doc Category: 2009 Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Injury Report 17 Comments →

I hope this week’s injury report finds you well and uninjured, unlike these poor saps below.

Anquan Boldin: Questionable — I know when I drag my ham around for long periods of time the string gets all funky. Guessing this is Boldin’s problem. He will be a game time decision, which sucks since he plays late. Check when your teams lock and if you have another option that plays late or Monday night. If not I’d sit him.

Brian Westbrook: Probable — You’ll see Mr. Westbrook on this list early and often this season. He’s a good play against the Panthers. You know what you got into when you picked him, unless it was an autodraft and then you should have preranked your players or got a better internet connection or not had so many jello shots.

Pierre Thomas: Out — It might be time to start doubting Thomas just a bit. I hope his MCL sprain doesn’t linger or reoccur, but if it does you picked up Bell and are ready to go! Right?

Tom Brady: Probable (as usual) — He’s fine. This will be the last time I mention Brady on the injury report unless he actually gets injured.

Matt Cassel: Questionable — This is just to fill up some space for this post. You wouldn’t start a banged up Cassel in Baltimore on a dare.

Matt Schaub: Probable — One of the many QB’s named Matt, this one is fine and you should start him.

Bernard Berrian: Questionable — BB will be a game time decision. He’s probably worth waiting on, but his hammy could act up during the game. If you have a decent backup I’d take a hard look at him.

Kyle Orton: Questionable — The bearded neck will play with a glove over his boo boo. He’ll probably be ok, but there are a lot of questions surrounding the Broncos going into Cincinnati; I’d be cautious.

Knowshon Moreno: Questionable — He’s been practicing, but not even Josh McDaniels’ diary knows how much work, if any, he’ll get. And if you get your hands on that diary I want to see if there are any scribbled out hearts with “JM + BM” inside them.

Carson Palmer: Probable — He says he’s “full go!” He gets the Broncos at home. If you drafted him, here’s the time to get him in your lineup.

Wes Welker: Questionable — He’s been practicing, sorda. I think he’ll play, but with Billy B. we may not know until his 3rd or 4th reception.
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Michael Turner Overdrive

August 15, 2009 By: Doc Category: 2009 Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Daily Notes 17 Comments →

If Michael Turner could face the Lions defense every game he would have passed Walter Payton by now.  It became apparent last year that Turner might break out when he destroyed the Lions on opening day rushing for 220 yards on 22 attempts and scoring 2 touchdowns on the twenty second Sunday of  2222 after the 222nd cycle of the . . .  oh wait, I made up those last bits, but even though this game wasn’t the second coming it was the start of a huge season.  Yesterday against the Lions in limited play he reeled off a 40 yard TD run and then decided to give them a fighting chance by running backwards the rest of the time, and he still gained 23 yards on 5 more carries. The Falcons have a tougher schedule this year and Turner ran a whole lot last year, but the guy is an ox and a fast one at that.

Here are some more preseason thoughts to hold you over this Sunday morning.

Knowshon Moreno: The hopes and dreams of many a fake footballer were half-dashed when he left the first preseason game with an injured knee. A MRI yesterday revealed a mild MCL sprain which could make him MIA the rest of preseason.  Moreno has shown in practice and in his very limited time in preseason that he can run with the big boys, but this will really curb his progression toward becoming the every down back.  By mid-season he should be there, but that’s too long for me unless he drops in adp.

Kyle Orton: Coach McDaniels gave Orton a vote of confidence after watching him throw three interceptions in the Broncos’ first preseason game.  But it did seem odd that he was crying.

Sadly, this means Chris Simms will need to be added toward the bottom of your rankings. 

Mark Sanchez: He has been dubbed the starter for the NY Jets.  He will struggle, but the Jets knew that unless he fell to the ground, curled up into the fetal position and wet himself in the first preseason game, he’d be their starter.

Brandon Marshall: A big sigh of relief was heard from all those invested in Brandon Marshall when he was acquitted of battery charges on Friday.  That was just sad to write.

Jeremy Shockey: Even a blind douchebag can find a nut.  Shockey looked good in his first preseason game and he’s on a team that throws about 112% of the time, but I still won’t target Shockey in any draft.  He’ll get hurt or throw a tantrum or get lost in the bayou at some point in the season.

Carson Palmer: His arm looked strong in his first preseason game and so did his receivers.  I still don’t believe in this Bengals team and their offensive line, but if they continue to look sharp it will be hard not to move Palmer, Ocho, and Henry up the rankings, but my neck will start sweating and my hand will get all shaky while clicking on that excel file.

Sage Rosenfels: After he rose in the air, was hit and fumbled, then fell on top of his head in that game he handed to the Colts last year I still was on the Sage chuckwagon.  I believe he has the arm and the pocket presence to help the Vikings much more than TJax.  And in the Vikings first preseason game he showed that.  He’s late round flier material as long as Bernard Berrian, who injured his hamstring in the game, is healthy.

Antonio Gates: He feels that he has become a more well rounded player after actually reading the playbook last season while he nursed his ouchy.  He commented that sleeping on the playbook and trying to learn by osmosis must only work with water and cell membranes.

Darren McFadden: He had a nice 45 yard run against the Cowboys and if he stays healthy through the preseason should overtake Huggy Bear’s son as the #1 RB, and even with Russell at the helm, should prove to be a great value at his current ADP.

Braylon Edwards: He’s in a contract year and he’s coming off a putrid season so he SHOULD be ready to go this year, but he’s showing he hasn’t gotten over a bad case of the dropsies by missing a touchdown pass from The Mighty Quinn. I’ve heard pineapple is good for dropsy, but maybe Edwards needs a bottle of “get your shizz together!”

Jonathan Stewart: Another practice missed, another DeAngelo Williams owner giggles like a wee little girl.  Stewart’s achilles injury is not quite as bad as Brad Pitt’s, but it seems to be taking a toll on his draft value. I’m pretty sure Orlando Bloom was nowhere near Panthers training camp.

Chris Brown: Brown was brought in to replace Steve Slaton at the goalline last night.  This is disturbing news.  Not finger in your Big Mac disturbing, but disturbing enough.  Thankfully Brown gets injured when walking in a light rain.  He better take an umbrella . . ella . . ella.

Garrett Hartley: He was suspended the first four games for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy.  Since he is a kicker I am guessing it was for excessive mocha frapuccinos or something of that ilk. I’m loathe to write about a kicker, but the Saints signed John Carney to replace him and with their offense and dome you have to look at whoever is their kicker.  Hartley is high on our kicker rankings because he plays for NO, not because he has some steroid induced bionic nuclear powered leg, so if you punted kicker in your draft you should pick up Carney.

Orton Hears A Boo

August 07, 2009 By: Doc Category: 2009 Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Daily Notes 3 Comments →

Kyle Orton: He was booed in camp for ineptitude.  There is currently some kid booing me as I write this in a coffeeshop.  Orton has too many weapons in Denver to not put up decent fantasy numbers.  He’s a good #2 QB to have unless some jerk reaches for him.  Shut up kid!

Knowshon Moreno: He agreed to a deal with Denver just to end the constant punning of his name, but I think I’ll keep it up just to spite him as I know he is an avid reader.  No Show will win the starting running back job unless he gets a bad, year long case of broken foot.  McDaniels has used RB’s in some ways fake footballers are not too keen on, but he is also the reason Denver no longer has Jay Cutler and the reason they drafted No Show first, so he needs to show that No Show was worth it and that he was a genius in drafting him.  It’s very good that he signed sooner than later and we should see a solid year out of him.

Michael Crabtree: In a Billy Carter/Roger Clintonesque move his cousin said Crabtree might sit out the season and reenter the draft next year.  Everyone and their dog denied this, but Crabtree is looking pretty foolish in this holdout right now.

Brandon Jones: He was looking strong in 49ers camp, but now will be out for 8 weeks, not like your dad who went to the liquor store to pick up some smokes kinda out, but you know, fractured shoulder kinda out.

Robert Meachem: Looking great in training camp according to people that sit all day at training camp.   The wide receiver situation in New Orleans is always one to follow and if Meachem can somehow overtake Moore it would be news, but I’m sticking with Moore for now with a possible flier pick on Meachem in deeper drafts.

Kurt Warner: He says he’s 85% after his offseason hip surgery.  Warner could surprise us again and last the whole season while throwing strikes to his all world receivers, but it’s really hard to believe.  I could see him lasting all season if the NFL makes some rule changes and allows Power Chairs on the field.

Harry Douglas: He’s done for the season.  In other news Roddy White was seen pricing a Bugatti Veyron.

Reggie Bush: He just called it quits with his long time girlfriend Kim Kardashian which of course has nothing at all to do with anything of any importance whatsoever.  He also supposedly has to leave practice to ice his “knee” as a precautionary measure and not because it hurts and is swollen.   Whatever is going on it doesn’t sound great for Reggie and boosts Pierre Thomas’ value.

DeSean Jackson: Has apparently been amazing in camp so far.  I have been a little skeptical of Jackson because of his size, but he’s proved me wrong so far.  He should improve his numbers from last season and help McNabb’s numbers until they get to the playoffs where Donovan will choke on some Campbells soup.

Alex Smith: Looks like Smith is in the lead for the 49er QB job.  In similar news there are some roofer job openings in Phoenix.

Eddie Royal: Brandon Marshall has yet to practice due to a leg issue, probably from his offseason surgery.  Royal is getting all the work with Orton and there is talk that he could be the de facto #1 with many plays drawn up just for him.  For the throngs waiting for our overall rankings, blame shizz like this!

Eli Manning: He just signed a 7 year 106 million dollar contract which about half should go to David Tyree who is on the verge of being cut.

Chris Brown: Breaking news.  Still not injured.

Razzball Commenter Leagues: We’re pretty much full except for two slots open in the Virgins League.  If you are fairly new to fantasy football and want to get in on the Razzball Football fun give Iowa Cubs a shout.