| Team | 2022 Drop-backs Per Game |
2023 Projected Drop-Backs Per Game |
Projected +/- Drop-Backs |
2023 Available Targets |
New
Available Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | 30.7 | 37.8 | 121 | 212 | 333 |
| Houston Texans | 37.6 | 36.1 | -25 | 357 | 332 |
| Tennessee Titans | 31.3 | 37.9 | 112 | 199 | 311 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 33.4 | 41.4 | 136 | 163 | 299 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 35.4 | 41 | 95 | 197 | 292 |
| Green Bay Packers | 35.8 | 37.7 | 31 | 258 | 289 |
| New England Patriots | 35.4 | 39.3 | 67 | 214 | 281 |
| Detroit Lions | 36.9 | 37.5 | 11 | 227 | 238 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 28.8 | 34.2 | 92 | 143 | 235 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 38 | 39.3 | 22 | 191 | 213 |
| New Orleans Saints | 33.2 | 36.5 | 56 | 127 | 183 |
| Chicago Bears | 30 | 35.9 | 100 | 81 | 181 |
| Denver Broncos | 39.2 | 40.1 | 16 | 160 | 176 |
| Buffalo Bills | 39.2 | 40.1 | 17 | 157 | 174 |
| New York Giants | 36.9 | 39.1 | 37 | 127 | 164 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 38.2 | 41.2 | 51 | 113 | 164 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 36.2 | 38.9 | 47 | 114 | 161 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 40.1 | 40.4 | 5 | 148 | 153 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 43.1 | 40.4 | -47 | 199 | 152 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 42.6 | 42.5 | -2 | 152 | 150 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 37.6 | 39.7 | 35 | 80 | 115 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 32.8 | 34.9 | 37 | 77 | 114 |
| Miami Dolphins | 37.5 | 36.9 | -11 | 120 | 109 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 40.3 | 37.9 | -41 | 142 | 101 |
| New York Jets | 40.6 | 38.2 | -41 | 136 | 95 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 44.4 | 36.2 | -139 | 217 | 78 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 45.8 | 36.3 | -161 | 238 | 77 |
| Cleveland Browns | 36.5 | 37.6 | 18 | 58 | 76 |
| Washington Redskins | 37.1 | 37.7 | 9 | 65 | 74 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 38.4 | 37.9 | -8 | 75 | 67 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 36.8 | 37.2 | 6 | 45 | 51 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 45.8 | 40.4 | -92 | 105 | 13 |
Overview
[Column 1] 2022 Drop-backs – This represents how many times a team dropped back to pass the ball in 2022
[Column 2] 2023 Projected Drop-backs – This represents the average number of drop-backs the current offensive coordinator or play-caller’s teams have averaged over his career when he was calling plays and/or when he was on the coaching staff
[Column 3] Projected +/- Drop-backs – This column reflects how many more or fewer drop-backs a team will see from 2023 based on their offensive coordinator or play-caller’s tendencies from prior years
[Column 4] 2023 Available Targets – This represents how many targets from players who are no longer on the team from 2022 are available in 2023
[Column 5] New Available Targets – This metric combines columns 3 and 4 to give a new projection of how many new opportunities or potential targets are available in 2023
Introduction
Let’s quickly touch on the analysis behind 2023 projected drop-backs. Based on drop-back data from 2011-2022, we were able to figure out the average number of drop-backs that a certain play-caller typically has per season. Then we added in the available targets (targets vacated by players no longer on the team) to get the new available targets for 2023.
Team: Tennessee Titans
New Available targets: 311
Opportunity Analysis Team rank: #3
Player(s) to Buy: Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okongkwo
A lot of this upside relies on Ryan Tannehill maintaining his starting role in 2023. If he does, we could see both Treylon Burks and Chig Okongkwo return value this season. The Titans are vacating 199 targets from the departures of Robert Woods and Austin Hooper, and new Offensive Coordinator Tim Kelly should infuse some additional pass volume.
Team: Dallas Cowboys
New Available targets: 292
Opportunity Analysis Team rank: #5
Player(s) to Buy: Ceedee Lamb and Brandin Cooks
The Cowboys quietly had major turnover at the skill position group with Dalton Schultz, Noah Brown and Zeke Elliott departing this off-season. This should open up targets for newly acquired Brandin Cooks as the Cowboys have the fifth most new opportunities heading into 2023. More importantly, there are enough new available targets to allow Cooks to emerge while not impacting Ceedee Lamb.
Team: Detroit Lions
New Available targets: 238
Opportunity Analysis Team rank: #8
Player(s) to Buy: Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams
The suspension of Jameson Williams opens the door for Amon-Ra St. Brown to have a monster start in 2023. St. Brown was the WR4 after the T.J. Hockenson trade last season and could repeat that again to start the year. Meanwhile, if you can stash Williams for the first six weeks of 2023, he has the talent to be a legit WR3 asset down the stretch.
Sources: Razzball.com, FantasyPros, PFF.com, Pro Football Reference, FFToday, and Ourlads
