We are already a quarter of the way through the NFL season and I still find myself thinking how much I missed football on Sundays. It felt great to go through the football routine last week after missing weeks 2 & 3. Ironically, I had my worst week of the season at the sportsbook. Too much research can be a bad thing. Let’s take a quick look at some buy and sells without overthinking things.

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It’s good to be back! I have got to stop planning vacations during the football season. I’m returning from a two-week trip to Iceland, where not only was it difficult to get cell service to watch games, and barely manage my teams, but also where kick-off was at 5 p.m. It was not ideal staying up until 3 a.m. to watch the night games. I would highly recommend traveling to Iceland and spending a couple of weeks driving around the country. It was 2 weeks of great food, great people, hiking, and site seeing. Plus, you get to drive some bad ass routes, fording rivers, and drive along volcanic ash roads, all while getting pelted with hail/rain/wind in “super jeeps”. Just be sure to check the news every morning to be sure your route doesn’t have any landslides or extreme flooding! Now as that post-vacation relaxation tends to fade away, let’s dive back in and examine some surprising dynasty situations.

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In leagues where rosters are 30 players deep and waivers are plucked clean, it’s important not to overreact after week 1. This is especially true for players on the back-end of your roster that won’t see much of the field this year. The hyped rookie that you drafted isn’t burning you by sitting in your 27th roster spot. It’s important to temper your expectations on these rookies and not fall victim to week 1.

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2019 was not the most spectacular class of rookies to enter the NFL. In fact, multiple times, I’ve said that the running back class is the weakest we’ve seen in the last decade with the possible exception of 2010. As history shows us with rookies, it is not always the first ones drafted that make the biggest impact in fantasy. While Saquon obviously ran away with the 2018 rookie class MVP, the 2nd leading rusher of the group was the undrafted Phillip Lindsay.

When evaluating rookies, every analyst uses some combination of talent and opportunity, and I tend to lean more toward the talent side of those. Situation can change, and while players can improve, I tend to trust my evaluations in their skills.

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Pre-season is wrapping up soon and most of us have completed our rookie drafts. As we sit around and rosterba—- err, “admiring” what we have built, it’s easy to get carried away by pre-season hype. This is a volatile time of year to swap assets with other teams. We have seen countless rookies flash in pre-season only to bust when facing the 1st string, while others have zero preseason impact and break out all over the place.  Here are a handful of rookies that are worth the hype. 

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Welcome back to another Dynasty Deep Dive. Hopefully you read Rudy’s post last week regarding Vacated Targets, and how they are a big misconception among fantasy gamers. Rudy‘s math proved that there is no correlation in vacated targets and an increase in targets. This week, I’d like to apply Rudy’s theory that Vacated Targets by themselves are generally useless, and instead identify some players worth targeting based on increased Snap Share. We’re going to take that step further and see if an increased Snap Share resulted in a larger Target Share. I want to use Target Share for this because I believe it is a better indicator of how important a player is to their offense. We all know volume is king in fantasy, but Target Share will put these players within context compared to their teammates.  

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Hello and welcome back to another year of Dynasty Deep Dives! With it being mid-August I’m sure the majority of fantasy gamers have already completed their drafts, but all of us will be wrapping up our draft season in the next couple of weeks. Let’s’ dive in like Antonio Brown dove into his cryogenic therapy. Here are a few rookie running backs that you should not have cold feet about drafting this year.

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