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Nic Romero

How About Some More Handcuffs?

August 22, 2019 | Fantasy Football Strategy | 10 Comments

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[brid autoplay=”true” video=”453878″ player=”10951″ title=”2019 Razzball Fantasy Football Draft Kit Wide Receivers”]

We’ve reached the third installment of my preseason handcuff reports. If you missed them you can check them out here: Baby, I’m more than just a handcuff  +  Why do we Handcuff?

We are in the thick of redraft season and the “dress rehearsal” pre-season games are this week. This means we are only 2 preseason weeks away from regular season football. Can we get a “hell yeah?”

{Editor’s Note: Hell yeah!}

There are already a number of clear handcuff situations that need to be addressed heading into your draft day. Let’s jump right in, starting with the highest priority handcuffs…

ADP numbers in parentheses are from fantasypros.com consensus data, compiled from all of the top fantasy sites. 

LAC Austin Ekeler (73 OVR / R32) + Justin Jackson ( 162 OVR / RB54)

Melvin Gordon is prepared to sit out for the season, if the Chargers are unable to present a contract he deems worthy. Per multiple reports, both sides are still millions of dollars apart which has caused Gordons draft stock to plummet. I’ve seen him fall into the 3rd and 4th round, which is amazing value for a running back that was a top 5 RB draft pick before the holdout began. If you invest an early round pick on Gordon, it is critical that you grab at least one of these handcuffs. I broke down the usage of both backs last season with and without Gordon in the lineup, in my AFC West Fantasy Preview. Ekeler is a premium/scheme based handcuff that I’m targeting regardless of Gordons status, he provides value with and without Gordon in the lineup. Justin Jackson looks to be the traditional handcuff in this backfield, he’ll most likely serve as the early down back if Gordon were to holdout during the season. Currently, Rudy has Ekeler projected to finish the season as RB33 and Jackson to finish RB59. With Gordons contract situation at a standstill, I have drafted both Ekeler and Jackson without owning any shares of Gordon. They present great trade value if Gordon continues to hold out and starting RB upside in the middle-to-later rounds. Jackson is the cheaper buy but holds the least amount of value if Gordon were to return, going in the middle of the 13th round. Melvin does carry an injury history too, Gordon owners will want to grab his handcuffs if he were to return, and other owners drop Ekeler/Jackson to waivers. 

DAL Tony Pollard (170 OVR / RB56)

Ezekiel Elliott is the other top running back currently involved in a contract holdout. Everyone in the industry seems confident that these two sides will be able to come together before the seasons starts, which has Elliots ADP still in the first round, 4th OVR / RB4. If you invest a first round pick, you need to protect that investment by grabbing Pollard. Luckily for those that draft Elliot, Pollard is practically free going in the early 14th round. It is worth taking Pollard a round earlier to ensure you get your handcuff, many are taking a flyer on Pollard without owning shares of Zeke. In last weekends preseason bout against the Rams, Pollard showcased that he is prepared to take on starting duties. He averaged an impressive 8.4 yards per carry and found pay-dirt. He also held the majority of starting snaps with Dak Prescott on the field. If you missed it, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones even threw shade towards Zeke after Tonys performance. I still laugh every time I watch this one…

MIA Kalen Ballage ( 114 OVR / RB45 )

After the contract ‘cuffs, I believe Ballage is the most valuable handcuff. Shoot, at this point he is considered more than a handcuff. Kenyan Drake is sporting a walking boot because of a right foot injury. Head Coach Brian Flores “hopes” Drake is back by the season opener. Before Drake’s injury, reports out of MIA camp had Ballage stealing first teams reps already and rumors that he could overtake Drake as the RB1 in this backfield. The boot just boost Ballage’s value even more. Unfortunately for those of us that have been able to get Ballage in the ‘teen rounds, now have to pay a 7-9th round pick to secure him. At the same time Drake’s stock continues to tank, currently going 68th OVR. If Drake continues to be sidelined we might even see Ballage’s price surpass Drake. This would create tremendous value for Drake and I would be interested if he fell closer to the 10th round. I liked Ballage before the Drake injury, and now he is a handcuff that needs to be owned on draft day. Not to mention, Flores hails from New England where they are notorious for utilizing multiple backs, creating value for both Drake and Ballage in this offense. Here’s a nice Ballage CHV…

MIN Alexander Mattison (167 OVR / RB 56)

Dalvin Cook’s stock rise this season is due to a couple of reasons, a new offensive coordinator that is expected to run the ball and Cook entering the season presumably 100% healthy.  I’ve seen Cook sneak into the first round of some drafts this past week. If you’re going to invest a 1st or 2nd round pick on a guy that has yet to play a full NFL season then you need to draft his handcuff. Alexander Mattison has looked good this offseason and is poised to hold the #2 spot in this offense. Not only does Mattison fall into the injury handcuff bucket but he can fall into a scheme based/premium handcuff situation, in a potential run first offense under new OC, Kevin Stefanski. If the Vikings want to make sure Cook can last all season, then it is in their best interest to offload carries to their stud rookie back. Latavius Murray had plenty of play last season when Cook returned form injury. Murray is now down south in the big easy, paving the way for Mattison to find the field. He provides great value at his current price, at the end of the 13th round. Just here for the CHVs? Here you go…

LAR Malcolm Brown (248 OVR / RB67)   + Darrell Henderson ( 90 OVR / RB37)

One of the biggest handcuff discrepancies this draft season comes out of LA. We have a guy that is a rookie, unproven, ineffective so far this preseason, his role still in question, but he is getting drafted ahead of starting running backs and backups that have clear fantasy relevant roles. Word on the street is Gurley is good to go for the season, yes he has an arthritic knee which will probably rear its head towards the end of the season, but the Rams are expecting him to be a full go. The Rams are more likely to reduce his overall touches/snaps over the course of the season, but he will still serve as the unquestioned #1 in this backfield. Darrel Henderson, if he’s able to get on the field, will be in a limited role as a change of pace back/pass catching back in an offense with a lot of pass catchers on the field. Malcolm Brown is actually the traditional handcuff in this situation and is going undrafted at his current ADP. People are starving for a rookie running back and are forcing the situation with Darrell Henderson. Stay clear of him at this current ADP. If you can get him in the ‘teen rounds then, sure, take a flier on him, but having to draft him in the 7th round is non-sense. You are expecting a third string back to finish as a RB3, get outta here! Yes, Gurley has a known knee issue and you need to secure a handcuff if you decide to draft him. Brown is the guy to own as the early down and goaline replacement if Gurley misses time. Unless Henderson turns things around these next two preseason games, I’m going to plant my flag that Henderson will be a huge bust at his current ADP. Don’t do it!

SEA Rashaad Penny (82 OVR / RB34)

Chris Carson has been a value pick all draft season, even with his ADP creeping in the 4th round. Everything out of Seahawks camp points to Carson as the lead dog in this backfield. Carson out snapped Penny 15 to 4 when Russell Wilson and the starting offense were on the field in their most recent pre-season game. Thats nearly an 80-20 split. Two of Pennys snaps came when Carson was forced to leave the game because his shoe fell off. The snap count could have easily been 17 to 2. Penny received a lot of hype over the offseason around potentially taking over this backfield, but that just isn’t the case. Seahawks coaching staff talk about giving Carson more opportunities in the passing game, as well. Even if Penny gains more opportunities on the field because of snaps vacated from Mike Davis and Seattle running the ball A LOT, he looks like he will be playing second fiddle. Penny enters the handcuff conversation as a potential “premium/scheme based handcuff” if Seattle actually uses him like a James White in NE. Currently, I believe he falls in the traditional handcuff bucket. Chris Carson has a history of being banged up, missing multiple games his first two season in Seattle. There is value in drafting Penny as a handcuff to Carson and for the potential upside if the Seahawks get this backfield closer to a 60-40 split over the course of the season. You do have to pay a pretty…Penny, to do so. His ADP sits in the middle of the 6th and depending on your draft position you may have to grab him in the 5th to secure him on your roster. Yes, its a premium buy but we are getting a discount on Carson who finished 2018 as RB15. I’m buying both backs in an offense with the highest rushing rate from 2018. 

NE Damien Harris (148 OVR / RB52)

Damien Harris is a traditional handcuff to Sony Michel, with James White in the premium/scheme based handcuff category. Harris looks good this preseason, averaging 5.7 yards per carry against Tennessee in preseason action and going 80 yards on 14 carries, with 4 catches for 23 yards. Michel enters the season with long term concerns about his knee, but he is expected to be a full go to start the season. I’m protecting that investment by grabbing Harris in the 12th round. Harris is a handcuff that needs to be drafted on draft day. James White has stand along value in this offense and we’ve seen what he his is capable of doing if Michel were to miss time. 

NO Latavius Murray (100 OVR / RB36)

I have multiple articles covering Murray, most recently as of last week in my Baby, I’m More Than Just a Handcuff article, and in my NFC South Fantasy preview. Not much more to add. We can’t expect an identical opportunity share for Latavius Murray as Mark Ingram had in this offense. I believe Kamara will absorb some of those snaps too, but Murray has stand alone value in one of the top offenses in the league. New Orleans ranked 4th in highest rushing rate last season. A bonus handcuff sleeper for Kamara owners that don’t want to spend an 8th round pick on Murray, Devine Ozigbo. He is not a priority handcuff add right now, because most leagues benches aren’t deep enough to support drafting him. Any sign of Murray or Kamara getting banged up over the season then Ozigbo will be a hot waiver wire add. 

 

BAL Justice Hill (171 OVR / RB57)

Yes, Baltimore likes to run the ball but they haven’t supported a true “bell cow” back since Ray Rice. I think people forget that the Ravens have sported a headache RBBC over the past few seasons. It is difficult to rely on week-to-week production from a single back in this backfield and now you have to contend with Lamar Jackson, Mike Vick 2.0, stealing rushes. If you want cheap action into this backfield, Justice Hill is the way to go. His ADP continues to rise as national media continues to shine on him, but you can still get him cheap in the 14th round. Just watching his preseason film, you can see the juice in his legs and why everyone is getting excited about him. He’s definitely presenting his case to the coaching staff on why he should be on the field. Mark Ingram will still get his share of snaps. BAL invested money to bring him in from New Orleans and Gus Edwards will get his work too. I view Gus as the traditional handcuff to Mark Ingram. Hill has potential to fit as a premium/scheme based handcuff that needs to be drafted in all formats. 

BUF Devin Singletary (132 OVR / RB50)

Do we really trust the dinosaur, Frank Gore, and soon to be one LeSean McCoy to make it the whole 16 games for the Buffalo Bills? Plenty of roomers surrounding McCoy getting shipped out, but I can’t decipher if that’s just fantasy-twitter-world wishing this into existence. Regardless, Devin Singletary has looked spry this camp and is receiving a lot of hype from beat reporters in BUF. It is tough to project Singletary with enough snaps to be fantasy relevant while fighting both McCoy and Gore for time on the field. If he is able to make his way via a trade to McCoy or injury to either back, Devin presents a lot of upside at his current ADP in the 11th round. 

Good luck in your drafts, leave your comments and questions below. 

 

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