Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find those articles here:

Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football

Point Per Rush Attempt Analysis – Regression Candidates

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 1

 In this article we breakdown Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR regression candidates from 2020 at the running back position to help you identify players to potentially fade in 2021.

As a reminder the league average for FPPR over the past 10 seasons is 1.49. For a running back to see a half point less per game they need to catch 40 passes and see a drop in FPPR of .2.


2021 FPPR Negative Regression Candidates

Player: Chris Carson

2020 FPPR: 1.92

Career avg. FPPR: 1.75

FPPR Variance: 10%


2020 PPG
2021 Projected PPG
14.1 13.6


Chris Carson has been as consistent as they come over the past three seasons seeing his PPG range from 14-14.8. However, somewhat of a red flag heading into 2021 was Carson’s big drop in touches. From 2019 to 2020 Carson saw his touches decrease from 21.5 to 14.8. Carson was able to keep up his PPG by seeing a 16% increase in his PPRA and 10% increase FPPR vs. his career norms. Based on what we learned over these past few articles one if not both will drop in 2021.

The next question we need to answer is “what does the floor for Carson look like if he were to return to his career norms without an uptick in touches”. The short answer is 12.4 PPG. That would put him outside the top 25 running backs in PPG last season. Currently Carson’s ADP is RB18 which isn’t a terrible price to pay based on his PPG over the past three seasons. Currently backup RB Rashaad Penny is out again so Carson could be leaned on early. This makes it likely for him to see a bump in touches in 2021.   

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It’s finally here, we are less than a week away from my Packers kicking off 2019. I’m convinced that I enjoy the ritual of football Sunday’s more than the games themselves. Waking up to place your bets, set your lineups, and trash talk your league mates is its own event in itself. I’ll be kicking off week 1 with some homemade jalapeño poppers, chicken wings, maybe a cheese board to keep in line with my Wisconsin fandom, and of course plenty of beer. Although some of us have the same game day rituals from year to year, we can’t expect similar results from team to team or player to player from 2018 to 2019. In a league that is built on parity, identifying when a player’s situation has changed drastically can make us better fantasy gamers. Let’s take a look at some of these situations that should make us pause and take a closer look.

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After 6 seasons and almost 100 million dollars in career earnings, Andrew Luck stole late evening headlines by announcing his retirement at just 29 years old. Personally, I’m pumped that he is preserving his health and moving onto the next chapter of his life. He can enjoy his new marriage and starting a family. Cheers to Captain Neck Beard, but where does this leave Indianapolis on the offensive side of the ball?

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What has been the most exciting story of the offseason: Antonio Brown’s never-ending list of excuses, or the Zeke-Jerry Jones banter? The answer… neither. The correct response is Baker Mayfield absolutely roasting Daniel Jones, saying he “could not believe the Giants took Daniel Jones,” before getting defensive and claiming he meant none of it. It’s news like this that gets the attention of most football fans… but neither Baker Mayfield nor Daniel Jones are going anywhere on fantasy draft boards after this event. So how do you know which preseason events do spur change in fantasy football? And how do you know whether or not to buy into these shifts? 

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The first slate of preseason games typically leaves a small mark on fantasy draft rankings. A lot of the big names sit, and a lot of the action reinforces previous thought. However, there were some eye-raising moments throughout Week 1. Lamar Jackson looks primed to throw the ball with more frequency. Sam Darnold looks like he may develop into the star he was drafted to be. And Daniel Jones may very soon be the face of the National Football League after his pristine performance… or not.

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Razzbowl 2019 is in the books and it provides a great opportunity to delve into how a strategy can change throughout a single draft. I’m hoping this breakdown can stir up your thought process in your own drafts as everyone is unique. In my mind, the biggest mistake people who play in a single home league or just for fun make is to just draft to rankings/ADP. I spend so little time ranking players. I spend far more time: placing players into tiers, reviewing what I believe the actual NFL teams offenses will look like, how the seasons will go for those teams, coming up with an initial strategy for each individual draft, pinpointing my favorite players to start off the draft from each chunk of draft positions (early/middle/late), and finally matching player value to rounds in the draft. Hopefully that makes sense. To put this idea into simper terms: Many people spend an excessive amount of time worrying about the order in which players like Josh Jacobs, Mark Ingram, and Chris Carson should be picked. I tend to not worry about the actual order, and try to spend more time coming up with what I believe is most likely going to happen with those teams, what could happen with that team, who I’ve drafted before that choice comes up, and just as important… what my plan is the rest of the way if I were to pick each of those players.

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Completed Previews: AFC North – NFC North – NFC East Part I – NFC East Part II – AFC East Part I – AFC East Part II – NFC South Part I – NFC South Part II

2019 projections referenced below are based on razzball.com 2019 projections managed and updated by our very own @RudyGamble . ADP, and strength of schedule referenced below are based on fantasypros.com consensus data.

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It is finally time to start rolling out my positional rankings over the next couple of weeks. We really started to kick things up at the beginning of June but nobody is really ready for drafts in June. June is foreplay. June for fantasy football is catching up with your favorite writers and you sit there and read as they babble on about players that they thought about during the Spring. You’re probably thinking, “that’s great and all but what NUMBER is this guy on your rankings sheet?” Oh so you don’t care about Pittsburgh’s offense, you just want to know when to draft J2S2.

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We are one day away from draft night and I cannot wait. Who do you have your team taking with their first pick? If you are like me, you are consuming all of the NFL content to keep you satisfied until the regular season kickoff. Your teams have reported for offseason activities, the 2019 regular […]

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Well, we’ve reached the end of the (non-silly) Daily Fantasy Football season! I’d like to thank all of you, my loyal readers, for your weekly support. There will be DFS next week, but Week 17 cash games get really silly as so many teams end up resting starters and/or giving heavy volume to guys you’ve never heard of, which is why Week 16 really is the functional end of the non-silly Daily Fantasy Football season. I hope 2018 was profitable for you, and I hope this article helped. Now let’s get to the picks!

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