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I was working in the lab, late one night. When my eyes beheld an eerie sight. For my monster on his slab began to rise and suddenly to my surprise… He did the Mash. The Monster Mash. 

Just take these wise words in for a moment. Breathe them in. The monster… he did the mash. And don’t we all do the mash sometimes, much to the chagrin and sometimes excitement to our contemporaries? Yes, even sometimes it will truly be a “graveyard smash”. 

What was this section about? Oh uh Halloween injury report. Right. There was a thread here but I got carried away in the poetry of Bobby “Boris” Pickett & The Crypt Kickers (Side note: Here’s a great TV performance of Bobby Pickett doing the Monster Mash, a real masterclass in making really weird faces and being a weirdo).

The teams who will have some extra trick-or-treating time on bye this week are the Ravens and the Raiders. See ya next week! 

Let’s get into this week’s horror show!

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The night was May 14, 2003. A night I was greatly anticipating because of two big events. First the series finale of my favorite tween television series, Dawson’s Creek or The Creek to the cool kids, was airing and at midnight. Then I was going to see the sequel to The Matrix, which was easily one of the best science fiction films of the previous ten years. It turned out to be the most disappointing night of my twenty-something pop culture obsessed life.

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Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find some of those articles here:

Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 2

 Fantasy Points Per Reception – Wide Receiver Edition Part 2

In this article we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR regression candidates from 2020 at the tight end position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players who you should potentially fade at their ADP in 2021.

A couple things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for tight ends over the past 10 seasons is 1.93. For a tight end to see one point less per game they need to average three receptions per game and see an increase in FPPR of .35.

 

2021 FPPR Regression Candidates

 

Player: Travis Kelce

2020 FPPR: 2.48

Career avg. FPPR: 2.26

FPPR Variance: 10%

 

2020 PPG
2021 Projected PPG
17.3 15.8

 

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Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find some of those articles here:

Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 1

 Fantasy Points Per Reception – Wide Receiver Edition Part 1

In this article we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR positive regression candidates from 2020 at the tight end position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players who will potentially outkick their ADP in 2021.

A couple things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for tight ends over the past 10 seasons is 1.93. For a tight end to see one point more per game they need to average three receptions per game and see an increase in FPPR of .35.

 

2021 FPPR Positive Regression Candidates

Player: Gerald Everett

2020 FPPR: 1.66

Career avg. FPPR: 2.10

FPPR Variance: -21%

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What is up everybody? I hope you’re ready to see some undrafted free agents and backups this weekend. Me, I don’t really get excited about that stuff. I’m not exactly a Campus to Canton guy. But you? Maybe you dig that first week of preseason football vibes. Just like pre-season baseball, it’s hard to take anything you see in pre-season football terribly seriously — we’re not seeing proper game script, we’re not seeing the first team on the field all the time, and more often than not, we’re just watching to see if teams want to keep their young players on the field or bring in a veteran to eat up some yardage. That said, I also know most “home leagues” are starting up, and you’re looking for the best players to take such that you can embarrass your friends and relatives and win their undying respect. So! Let’s take a look at some end-game players that could really change your season outcomes before the pre-season gets underway. 

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We’re catching up on a few things today! First, I updated my Pre-Season Rankings, and I’m just going to give you some quick hits about my concerns about playing time right now. To be honest, we’re in the period of coach speak and “motivational moves,” so I’m not going to overhaul the ranks with every tweet we hear about Jalen Hurts. Then, we’ve got the Hall of Fame game summary! Lastly, I’ll go over my RazzBowl draft and give everybody an idea of how I approached a season-long fantasy draft.

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In the last article we highlighted which NFC players have the most to gain if their current teams don’t draft a player at a similar position. In this article we will discuss which current AFC players have the most to gain in the upcoming NFL draft. What this means is if a team passes on a skill position player or quarterback in the first few round which players currently on those rosters today will have the most to gain.

Each section we will highlight the team, how many picks each team has overall, how many picks they have rounds 1-3 and the players who have the most to gain. This article isn’t a mock or predicting any picks. Most likely at least half of these players we talk about today will be impacted by draft picks, but just in case they aren’t here is why we think they can improve in 2021.

Baltimore Ravens
Total picks: 7
Round 1: No. 27 overall
Round 2: No. 58
Round 3: No. 104

Impacted Player: Marquise Brown

Marquise Brown turned it on in the second half of 2020 increasing his production in nearly every metric. This spike in production coincides with Mark Andrews missing time due to COVID. However, even after Andrews returned Brown was still producing at a high level. Below are his stats side by side before Andrews went out with Covid and after he returned. The 13.2 points per game (PPG) in those final 6 weeks (including playoffs) would have made Brown the wide receiver 15 in 2020. Brown’s current Best ball average draft position (ADP) is wide receiver 36.

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Current NFC players with the most to gain in the upcoming NFL draft!

In this article we are going to discuss which current NFC players have the most to gain in the upcoming NFL draft. What this means is if a team passes on a skill position player or quarterback in the first few round which players currently on those rosters today will have the most to gain.

Each section we will highlight the team, how many picks each team has overall, how many picks they have rounds 1-3 and the players who have the most to gain. This article isn’t a mock or predicting any picks. Most likely at least half of these players we talk about today will be impacted by draft picks, but just in case they aren’t here is why we think they can improve in 2021.

Arizona Cardinals

Total picks: 6

Round 1: No. 16 overall

Round 2: No. 49

Round 3: N/A

Impacted Player: Chase Edmonds

Edmonds has 9 career games where he received 10 touches. In those games he averaged 13.4 PPG with a .89 fantasy points per touch. Edmonds only saw 10 touches in a game 6 times in 2020 so if he can be the 1A in 2021, he should improve on his RB28 finish from last season.

Impacted Player: Christian Kirk

The signing of A.J. Green offers provides an opportunity for Christian Kirk to kick inside. This is a much better suited position for Kirk who has a .18 higher YPRR when playing inside including a career high 1.9 YPRR in 2018. If Fitzgerald isn’t re-signed, he is vacating 62 slot targets that could go Kirk’s way in 2021.

 

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Team: Atlanta Falcons

New Play-Caller: Arthur Smith

Scheme: West Coast

 

Historical Overview

The change from former Falcons Offensive Coordinator Dirk Koetter’s pass first Air Coryell attack to Arthur Smith’s run first play action pass offense is going to be drastic. However, Matt Ryan has a lot of familiarity with this offense Smith is bringing over. Back in 2015 and 2016 former Titans Offensive Coordinator Matt Lafleur was the Quarterbacks coach in Atlanta for two seasons.  In those seasons the Falcons ran a similar scheme to what Arthur Smith ran in Tennessee after taking over for Matt Lafleur in 2019. Matt Ryan enjoyed his lone MVP season in 2016 running this system amassing 4,944 pass yards and 38 TDs. That season the Falcons produced a Top 3 quarterback, Top 6 running back and a Top 6 wide receiver.

In this article we will breakdown by position the impact of this coaching change, and how we believe the fantasy relevant players will perform in the new offense.

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Congratulations! If you’re reading this, I assume you made into your league’s playoff bracket. There’s not a lot of meat on the bone but hopefully you don’t need a ton of help from here on. However, if there are any holes to fill I might be able to help.

I group the adds by position and then within the position, rank them in order of preference. With the playoffs upon us, I have removed percentages of the FAAB. If you need any of these guys to start for your team, then spend what you need to spend. The sherpa will only advise players who are rostered in less than 50% of ESPN leagues.

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The week 7 waiver landscape is as barren as the Gobi desert. No major injuries opened up prime starting spots for fantasy teams. There are some rookies begging to be added on merit alone, however. And this is the best type of add, because these are players earning their volume. Guys like Higgins and Patrick should see their roles increase and can be real assets down the line. Conversely, players who get a bump simply due to injury may not capitalize on their touches (see: Mattison, Alexander)

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