Patrick Mahomes takes his offense into Foxborough searching for his first career win against the New England Patriots. Mahomes has thrown for 7 TDs / 2 INT / 647 yds in his two matchups against Belichick, last season. Pat posted 34.5 fantasy points during their regular season matchup (wk 6) and 27.9 points in an overtime loss during the conference championship. Andy Reid has faired well against New England in recent history, averaging 39.7 games over his previous 3 bouts against Bill (1 game with Alex Smith at QB).Please, blog, may I have some more?
Welcome to Stat-o-Matic where we will look at some advanced stats around the NFL. As a disclaimer, I am using this space to play around with some numbers and present some interesting findings. But, by no means is this validated or predictive data. I hope that it will lead to meaningful discoveries or it could inspire you to go down your own rabbit hole. We’re going to explore together, crunch some numbers and see what pops out. Stats courtesy of PlayerProfiler.com.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Congratulations everyone! You have passed the first grueling test. After thirteen weeks of non-stop ascent, we’ve reached a clearing where we can all exhale and stretch those weary bones. Grab a mug of tea and admire just how far we’ve come. We used to squabble over whether Chris Godwin and Mike Evans could both be top 10 WRs. Some of us thought it was wise to draft Antonio Brown. Some of us thought Josh Gordon was a league winner.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis sent out an interesting thread of tweets earlier this week. I’ll try to summarize it in as few words as possible: THE BUCCANEERS ARE DFS GOLD. For those of you who want to know more, let me explain in a little bit more detail.
Hribar points out that the Bucs have hit their implied point total in seven games this season, which tops the NFL. They have held their opponents under their implied total just once, which is lowest in the NFL. Games involving the Bucs average nearly 60 combined points. I don’t want to just keep reciting Hribar’s tweets, so check out the thread yourself here. Credit to him for the great detective work.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Even though LAC is listed as the “home” team, this game will be played on a neutral site in Mexico City, Mexico.
Carrying the highest point total for week 11, AFC West division rivals meet down in Mexico City on ESPN’s Monday Night Football. Dating back to 2017, KC vs LAC have averaged a 52.8 total points over their previous 5 matchups.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Patrick Mahomes made his triumphant return to the Chiefs’ lineup on Sunday and he did not disappoint. On his first throw he didn’t look like he was moving around very well and threw what looked like an interception, but it ended up getting overturned to a completion. After that, he looked like the same ol’ Patty. Andy Reid was not at all shy about his usage either. Mahomes attempted 50 passes and completed 36 of them for 446 yards and 3 touchdowns.
It really helps to have Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to throw to. Tyreek Hill saw a remarkable 19 targets and caught 11 of them for 157 yards and a touchdown. Travis Kelce caught all 7 of his targets for 75 yards. Mecole Hardman absolutely turned on the burners for his 63 yard touchdown catch. Having two of the fastest wide receivers in the league is paying off for the Chief’s offense. Unfortunately, we have the Chief’s defense, and we also have the turnover prone running backs on this roster. While Damien Williams did reach over 100 total yards, he had a costly fumble that might have put him in the doghouse with Andy Reid. I’m not quite sure what his other options are though.Please, blog, may I have some more?
I used to put my trusty Coleman tent to work every summer. A group of college friends and I would gather for a long weekend of debauchery and mosquito bites. Eventually, after enough blood loss, we outgrew the authentic camping experience and upgraded to cabin glamping. Also, our old campsite not-so-politely asked us to never come back. Regardless, my Coleman tent hasn’t seen any use in recent years. That is, until yesterday, when Tevin Coleman helped me pitch a tent as he obliterated the Panthers defense with 11 carries for 105 yards, 2 catches for 13 yards and 4 touchdowns! Who do I call if my tent has been erect for over 24 hours? Anyway, here’s what else I saw during yesterday’s late games in fantasy football:Please, blog, may I have some more?
I have been following a simple metric this season for running backs: weighted opportunities (WO) per game. This summer I found that WO/g correlated strongly with fantasy points (FP) per game with an R2 of 0.88 based off 2018 numbers. Granted, this was a small sample size of only 1 year but it’s all the data I had.
In a nutshell, the idea is that players should have a FP/WO ratio of about 1, and if they are above that they are either very efficient or lucky (probably via TDs). If they are below that number, the inverse is assumed. In that piece I identified 4 backs that looked like strong buys this offseason, so let’s see if FP/WO helped.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Kerryon Johnson was ruled out during Sunday’s bout against the Minnesota Vikings with a reported knee injury. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported on Monday that Kerryon is expected to miss a couple of weeks. Ty Johnson led the backfield in snaps on Sunday and will be this weeks top RB waiver add. JD McKissic, who was slightly more efficient with his touches than Ty, is a speculative add in deeper formats and for RB needy owners in PPR leagues. If Kerryon’s injury is longer than 1-2 weeks, don’t be surprised to see the Lions make an acquisition at the running back position. Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount are names to watch, unless the Lions make a trade with another NFL team. Both Ajayi and Blount have had workouts for other NFL teams in recent weeks. Either would be worth a bench stash if acquired. Kerryon and the Lions running game has underwhelmed this season, tied for the 11th worst in the league in yards per rush attempts (3.8) and 14th worst in yards per game. Unless you own Kerryon or have huge holes at the RB position, I would not waste top waiver priority position OR blow my FAAB money. We know Ty Johnson is expected to take over the #1 spot, but there is too much uncertainty. The Lions could make an acquisition or decide to treat the backfield like a true RBBC with McKissic, until Kerryon returns.Please, blog, may I have some more?
The biggest story line coming out of Thursday night will be Patrick Mahomes’ knee. From the sounds of it as I write this, there isn’t a fracture to go along with the dislocated kneecap so that is not the worst news in the world if you depend on Mahomes in fantasy football.
I’ve started writing this at the end of the 3rd quarter. At this point the Broncos are lifeless and Flacco has been sacked 7 times. Nevermind, now it’s 8. Flacco is a corpse out there with zero mobility and the offensive line is not doing him any favors.
I saw this game going quite a bit differently. I thought that Denver had all of the momentum coming into this game off of two straight wins and KC with two straight losses. These teams were playing on 4 days rest and Denver’s roster was a lot healthier coming into the game. Kansas City can’t stop the run and coming into the game, they only had 11 sacks on the season. It turns out that this Denver offense is completely lethargic and unprepared.Please, blog, may I have some more?