B_Don and Donkey Teeth are joined by one of our new Razzball writers, Bobby Lamarco. We ask Bobby about the recent LeSean McCoy signing and what we each expect it to mean for the Tampa RB situation. We also talk about Damien Williams recent opt out for the 2020 season and where we’re willing to draft Clyde Edwards-Helaire now. 

We move on to talk about our individual #RazzBowl draft starts. Bobby and B_Don go RB heavy early, while Donkey Teeth is taking a bit of a different approach. Bobby asks DT about his selection of Miles Sanders at 5, and what his projections look like for Sanders. 

Finally, we ask Bobby about his initial column series covering, well, shadow coverage. Bobby explains how he plans to use his shadow coverage research for both in-season and during the draft process. We ask him about his in depth research about Stefon Diggs, and we look how shadow coverage may affect the 49ers receiving situation in general. 

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As expected, in the midst of a pandemic, NFL players around the league are deciding to opt out of the 2020 season. All eyes will be on the MLB for the next couple of weeks to see how outbreaks within organizations are handled. After all of the positive tests for the Marlins and the two positive tests in the Phillies’ organization, it’s hard to imagine the NFL functioning with travel in the fall. At this point, Goodell is going to try and push through and have teams play in their home stadiums. I don’t understand why the NFL can’t move their operation down to Texas for the season and play in those nice high school facilities that they have down there. I get that NFL players want the cushy locker rooms and state of the art weight lifting facilities, but you have to look at the NBA campus and notice that there hasn’t been a positive test in weeks. Having 53 players per roster following proper guidelines in a high contact sport seems far-fetched enough as it is. As I previously mentioned, the consequences of the less than ideal protocols are opt outs, and it’s already having an effect on fantasy football. But first, the Buccaneers made an interesting roster move on Thursday. 

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Antonio Brown lit up his former team the Oakland Raiders this week, going off for 5 catches for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns as he fully delivered on his 2nd round fantasy-draft-price-tag. And just when his owners needed him most. He also chipped in 1 carry for 13 yards and he didn’t even fart in anyone’s face in the locker room after the win. Wait a minute, that doesn’t sound like the AB I know. *checks notes* Ahhhh this was A.J. Brown, not Antonio Brown! My bad, honest mistake. The Titans 2nd round rookie out of Mississippi, A.J. Brown, now has 6 touchdowns and three 100+ yard games on the season. Can I just draft the entire 2019 rookie receiver class on all of my teams next year? Anyway, here’s what else I saw during yesterday afternoons’ games for fantasy football: 

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Patrick Mahomes takes his offense into Foxborough searching for his first career win against the New England Patriots. Mahomes has thrown for 7 TDs / 2 INT / 647 yds in his two matchups against Belichick, last season. Pat posted 34.5 fantasy points during their regular season matchup (wk 6) and 27.9 points in an overtime loss during the conference championship. Andy Reid has faired well against New England in recent history, averaging 39.7 games over his previous 3 bouts against Bill (1 game with Alex Smith at QB).

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Congratulations everyone! You have passed the first grueling test. After thirteen weeks of non-stop ascent, we’ve reached a clearing where we can all exhale and stretch those weary bones. Grab a mug of tea and admire just how far we’ve come. We used to squabble over whether Chris Godwin and Mike Evans could both be top 10 WRs. Some of us thought it was wise to draft Antonio Brown. Some of us thought Josh Gordon was a league winner.

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We all remember the greatest passing tandems in the history of the NFL: Montana to Rice, Manning to Harrison, and AB to his doctor’s face. But make room legends, there’s a new connection in town: Lock to Sutton. It was a solid debut for the Broncos’ 2nd round pick out of Mizzou, as Drew Lock went 18/28 for 134 yards, adding 3 carries for 15 yards and throwing his first two career touchdown passes. But the real story was that both touchdowns were thrown to second year breakout Courtland Sutton who finished the game with 4 catches for 75 yards and now has 6 touchdowns on the season. Could the the 3rd time be the charm for John Elway drafted QBs? Brock Osweiler (2012 2nd rounder) and Paxton Lynch (2016 1st rounder) were worse investments than the Razzball coin I bought off Grey last year. Maybe, just maybe, this Lock/Sutton hook up could be something special for years to come. Anyway, here’s what else I saw during yesterday afternoon’s games for fantasy football:    

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I’m a fan of international games. I think it adds to the excitement to see the same 32 teams that we watch every year play in different environments. Plus, the more fans that there are from all over the globe means more fantasy football players. It’s just math (dark magic). That being said, this idea of playing at this underprepared Mexico City stadium needs to be shot into the sun. I was getting frustrated seeing divots fly up into the air and seeing players struggle to get their footing, so I can’t imagine how the actual players felt.

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I have been following a simple metric this season for running backs: weighted opportunities (WO) per game. This summer I found that WO/g correlated strongly with fantasy points (FP) per game with an R2 of 0.88 based off 2018 numbers. Granted, this was a small sample size of only 1 year but it’s all the data I had.

In a nutshell, the idea is that players should have a FP/WO ratio of about 1, and if they are above that they are either very efficient or lucky (probably via TDs). If they are below that number, the inverse is assumed. In that piece I identified 4 backs that looked like strong buys this offseason, so let’s see if FP/WO helped.

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