Welp. Last week was a kick in the pants, but don’t fret I was right there taking it with you. People are saying it was the Vegas sportsbooks worst weekend of the year. Favorites went 9-4-1 ATS on the closing line, while underdogs are 87-70-4 ATS overall this year on the closing line. Finding any edges in this fake sport we all have an unhealthy obsession with is a process over the course of the season. That process has led me to a 4 pieces I found in research this week that have implication on not only this week, but the rest of the season overall. 

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Welcome to Stat-o-Matic where we will look at some advanced stats around the NFL. As a disclaimer, I am using this space to play around with some numbers and present some interesting findings. But, by no means is this validated or predictive data. I hope that it will lead to meaningful discoveries or it could inspire you to go down your own rabbit hole. We’re going to explore together, crunch some numbers and see what pops out. Stats courtesy of PlayerProfiler.com.

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It’s a well known fact: Ezekiel Elliott has an insatiable appetite. The star running back has been begging anyone and everyone to feed him since all the way back to Pop Warner, but the hunger has never subsided. This past September the Cowboys finally broke down and gave Zeke a little grocery money of his own. But the Dallas RB hasn’t been able to locate the Whole Foods Market in his neighborhood and continues to ask for handouts. Fortunately, his best bud Dak Prescott (21/27 for 239 yards, 5 carries for 30 yards and 2 touchdowns) continues to be charitable, feeding Zeke the pigskin 22 times for 111 yards plus another 6 thru the air for 36 more yards and his 6th touchdown as the Cowboys trounced the Eagles on Sunday night. Watch those fingers Dak! Anyway, here’s what else I saw during yesterday’s late games in fantasy football: 

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Chris Godwin could only watch hopelessly last week as Mike Evans gave Jameis Winston some of his family’s secret man meat and then went on to catch 3 touchdowns. After the game, having seen the way to Winston’s heart, Godwin immediately went to work on a wurst recipe of his own. We’ll never know exactly how it went down when Godwin presented his juicy wiener to Jameis in the locker room early Monday morning. What we do know is, Chris Godwin reclaimed his position atop Winston’s best friends list receiving 14 targets against the Rams which he turned into 12 catches for 172 yards and his 3rd and 4th touchdowns. What will Mike Evans (4 catches for 89 yards and his 4th touchdown) put in his quarterbacks’ mouth next week to regain the favor of Jameis Winston (28/41 for 385 yards and 4 touchdowns)? Stay tuned! Anyway, MB covered yesterday’s early games but here’s what else I saw in the late games for fantasy football:

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Week 11 is upon us and another heavy bye week for us to manage with 6 teams on bye. Luckily, week-12 is the last of the byes with just two teams off.

Only one new name to talk about this week, but we’ll touch on a couple of repeat offenders that are worth updating. Since it is a light week, I start you with a few nuggets heading in to your playoffs. Let’s win you a championship or at least some money if your league pays more than first place.

All of you fall in to one of the following buckets: playoff spot locked up, fighting/jockeying for a final spot, or no chance at all. If you are fighting to lock up a playoff spot, you need to win now and dominate your weekly matchups. The focus is on finding every extra fantasy point you can grab. Is there a better defensive matchup for you to stream? What about a kicker? Maybe even a better QB matchup if you are juggling middle tier QBs on your roster. I’ve seen players like Marcus Mariota, Carson Wentz, Russel Wilson and somehow Mitchel Trubisky pop on waivers as league-mates manage byes. Dak Prescott has a couple of nice matchups down the stretch. If you have a bench warmer that has not or will not hit your starting lineup this season then you should not hesitate dropping him. If it means getting better for a one week matchup then make the move. This needs to be your mentality as we head down the stretch. Scratching and crawling for every point to lock up your final playoff spot.

If you are lucky enough to have a playoff spot locked up then you need to take advantage of the luxuries that come along with it. Do not fall asleep at the wheel. You have worked your tail off to get to this point.  My nuggets for you– grab your handcuff now and pick up a defense with a juicy week 14, 15, or 16 matchup. If you know you are getting a bye then only focus on the weeks you will be playing. Even if it is just a nice one week matchup. Don’t worry about having a defense that has a sweet matchup this week. Does it really matter if you finish 3 or 4th seed if you know you are going to make it either way?

Here are a couple of defenses that have plus matchups: Steelers vs Oak (WK14,) Texans vs Jets (WK15), Bills vs NYJ & DET (WK14,15), Titans vs NYJ, JAX, NYG, & WSH (WK13-14-15-16). I really like the Titans D heading down the stretch and they are on waivers this week with a matchup against Andrew Luck and the Colts.

If you fall in the last bucket and have no chance, don’t give up. It is your goal to ruin someones playoff hopes. Is anything more demoralizing than finishing last in your fantasy league? Do you have an embarrassing punishment for finishing last? Don’t let that be you.

I will wrap this up and get to your names. As noted before, reviewing your leagues transaction history is crucial. Look ahead to your playoff schedule and defensive matchups. Can you leverage a trade to bolster a weak spot on your roster come playoff time. This is the last week for trades in most leagues. Drop dead weight and pick up your handcuff.

Boom, let’s go! Here are your week 11 Bad Boyz…

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Well dear readers, let’s just get right to the good stuff today.

QB

Ryan Fitzpatrick, $7,600 – “Bucs QB” would be worth playing since you wouldn’t have to deal with the possible benching. Ryan Fitzpatrick, on his own, carries some risk of being benched. But that risk is entirely outweighed by the fact that he’s the starting QB in Air Monken. And Air Monken throws a lot. And volume is king.  

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My Bills took it on the chin again (going to be saying that quite a bit the rest of the next two seasons) as the Bears smacked Nathan Peterman around all day in a game that was downright offensive to the modern NFL offenses. I actually watched that entire game and then the New Orleans – LA Rams game and it felt like I was watching two different sports. Let’s get into some of the games from this past weekend…

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