What to Expect From Rookie Quarterbacks in 2023

The biggest lottery in fantasy football is the output of rookies. To help us make some accurate predictions of what to expect from this year’s class, we’re going to look through previous rookies over the last 10 years who have been drafted into similar situations. Today we’ll be starting off with the quarterbacks. Should you be drafting Bryce Young or Anthony Richardson in redraft this year? What should you expect? Let’s find out.

Week 1 Starters (e.g., Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud):

We’ll be breaking our quarterbacks into groups based on their draft slot and their expected role in their rookie season. First up, we’ll look at passers stepping into a starting role. That should cover Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, who are expected to start Week 1 under center, no matter what coaches may say initially.

Since 2013, there have been 20 quarterbacks who started Week 1 of their rookie season. There are some big names in this list, but the results have been less than stellar, with Dak Prescott (QB6) and Kyler Murray (QB7) the only rookies to finish as a QB1, with just three others finishing in the top 18. While injuries certainly curtailed otherwise positive seasons for Joe Burrow and Deshaun Watson, that only adds one more top-12 season. The reality is that most starting rookie quarterbacks will be totally useless for at least the first part of the season. This year’s crop is highly unlikely to buck the trend. There are some big names below, and they nearly all struggled. I’d fade both Young and Stroud in redraft outside Superflex leagues.

Day 1 Quarterbacks who won’t start Week 1 (e.g., Anthony Richardson):

Quarterbacks not expected to start falling into a number of categories, but it is best at this point to consider their draft slot, as this is the best indicator of whether they will permanently win the starting role or not. So what if I want to hold onto Anthony Richardson until he inevitably starts later in the season? While memories of Lamar Jackson tearing it up late in his rookie season may make this seem like a tempting proposition, the history of QBs who didn’t start Week 1 is pretty ugly. Only Justin Herbert has provided true season-long value (and he was lucky to start that early), while most other rookies will struggle even in the latter part of the year. I’d be very wary of expecting a late-season explosion from the Colts’ rookie passer this year, but I understand the temptation.

Day 2 Quarterbacks who won’t start week 1 (e.g., Will Levis and Hendon Hooker):

Put simply, Day 2 quarterbacks aren’t worth drafting in redraft. If they’re not starting week one, they’re not going to be fantasy relevant for the rest of the season. So unless Ryan Tannehill or Jared Goff gets a pre-season injury or somehow loses out in training camp, I wouldn’t be touching Will Levis or Hendon Hooker, even in 2QB leagues. Given the names on this list, I’d also be wary of drafting them in dynasty as Jalen Hurts is the only true success story, and even if Levis or Hooker does eventually hit, they’ll probably be on waivers by then.

Day 3 Quarterbacks who won’t start week 1 (e.g., Jake Haener, Stetson Bennett, Aidan O’Connell, Clayton Tune, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Sean Clifford, Jaren Hall, Tanner McKee and Max Duggan):

If you thought Day 2 quarterbacks were ugly, check out this list! There have been 61 quarterbacks selected on Day 3 in the last 10 years. While Dak Prescott and Gardner Minshew started Week 1 and had some success, only eight others made a start at any stage during their rookie seasons, with only Brock Purdy keeping the job until the end of the season. That Purdy required two quarterback injuries in front of him to even get a chance shows you how unlikely it is to get any fantasy value out of a late-round pick. These guys should never be drafted outside deeper dynasty leagues. In fact of the 61 players drafted in these rounds, only Purdy and Dak Prescott have become meaningful fantasy contributors out of the final day’s picks. Note that the table below only includes players who played at least a half of football in their rookie season.

So let’s keep this really simple. In redraft, avoid rookie quarterbacks. In dynasty, the first-rounders are fine if you’re willing to wait a season but don’t get drawn into the later picks, they’re rarely worth it outside very deep leagues. Having said that, somebody like Anthony Richardson is going to be a very trendy mid-season pick-up if there’s a sniff he’s imminently starting. While I wouldn’t recommend wasting the roster spot in general, with a run-heavy passer like the young Colt, it may just be worth it, as we know how effective those Lamar Jackson types can be!

Check out my rankings and other articles at ffdfantasyfootball.com, or if you have any thoughts or questions, you can find me @thefantasyfirstdown on Instagram (where I answer all questions) and @fantasyfirstdwn on Twitter. In two weeks, I’ll be back with a new series of articles.