It’s your buddy Mitch Staniger checking in and proving to be a real five-tool asset to Razzball and the fantasy sports community.  OK, maybe five-tool is a stretch, so let’s just agree to agree on two-tool; DFS baseball and fantasy football advice.  Now that that is out of the way and I am done […]

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Team: New York Giants

New Play-Caller: Brian Daboll

Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins

 

Historical Overview

Brian Daboll is now best known for his 4-year stint as Bills OC where he oversaw the rise of Josh Allen. Things didn’t start off so great as the Bills’ offense in Allen and Daboll’s first season in 2018 was 30th in both yards and points. This is clearly a distant memory as the Bills have been top 5 in both categories each of the last 2 seasons. However, Daboll’s story isn’t just about his time in Buffalo. Prior to his time with the Bills, Daboll coached for 11 years under Bill Belichick in New England and was an OC for 4 years for 3 teams. These seasons will play an interictal part in how we view the potential of the New York Giants offense in 2022 and beyond.

In this article, we will break down the impact the move to the new coaching staff from the previous regime will have on each position. Later we will use this information to help us determine if the fantasy-relevant player can offer value at their current ADP.

 

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We have finally reached the end of the slow burn that was the 2021 NFL season, the longest in history, but I am stoked for the playoffs. With the regular season in the books, It’s an opportune time to finish up the top 40. I will be putting out player ranking by position in the weeks to come. Players ranked 26-40 offer a great collection of talent, and a few of these stars will reach the top 25 next season, so this is a good group to get to know.

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In this article we are going to review annual player incentives to see if we can use this information to help us with potential player props and DFS plays for Week 18. First, a plyer incentive is something embedded into a player’s contract that allows them to make more money if the hit a certain production threshold. For example, if a player hits 100 receptions in a season they earn $100,000 as an incentive for hitting that benchmark.

In this article we identified 7 players and 14 incentives that can be reached in Week 18. Below you will find a breakdown of how each section will be broken out for each player. Later in the article we will discuss each incentive and some background on the player’s historical stats to see how obtainable the incentive will be in Week 18.

Player – This represents the name of the person who is up for the incentive

Incentive – This represents what type of bonus is laid out in the contract i.e. receptions, yards or TDs to earn that incentive for the season

Current Number – This represents where the player currently stands on the season in that statistic

Number Needed – This represents the number that needs to be obtained by that player to earn the incentive for the 2021 season. The number in the () represents the number needed in Week 18 if applicable

Incentive Payout – This represents the dollar figure that player will earn for hitting that incentive in 2021

Recommended Player Prop – This represents the type of player prop we recommend you bet based on the incentive needed by that player. Please note, other props can be bet based on the information.

Player Props – This section represents what the actual player prop is on each site (DK = Draft Kings, FD = FanDuel and PP = Prize Picks)

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With one simple line of prediction, all the weeks of Air Yards analysis went down the crapper. Here it is, from the Week 16 Air Yards report:

“Antonio Brown might make the short list of 2021 playoff heroes after this week is over.”

Yikes. As one commenter pointed out, “that prediction did not wear well.” Brown also did not wear his jersey well, dropping it on the ground, and giving a farewell tour around the stadium just after halftime. At that point, his opportunity to help your fantasy team or his real life football team in the playoffs disappeared faster than the cannon smoke from Raymond James Stadium.

But Air Yards, like many other advanced stats, tells us what could (or perhaps should) happen given similar circumstances over time. Brown smashed in Week 16 with no Chris Godwin or Mike Evans. Given similar circumstances plus playing-time incentives in Week 17, we had every reason to believe Brown would manhandle the Jets. It was the process and in the process we trust. 

Until a potential mid-game retirement variable is introduced in to the Air Yards model, we will just have to rely on the data we have. What can 2021 air yards teach us for 2022? Let’s find out. 

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The goal of this article is to find WRs to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key out wide matchups for week 15. To keep up with the latest defensive trends we updated the analysis to only include the last 5 weeks.

The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed out wide over the past 5 weeks.

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Air Yards are the Gordon Ramsey of fantasy receiving stats. They tell us exactly what was right and clearly what was wrong with how a receiver performed in a given week. Often, it’s not easy to hear. But you as a fantasy manager need to pay attention to the under-the-hood numbers from your receivers instead of just blindly trusting the box score results, you donkey. 

Each week, this column will dissect air yards for actionable info in the weeks to come. For Week 15, we will do a quick analysis of the list of the 75 wide receivers who finished last week with at least 30 air yards.

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The goal of this article is to find WRs to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key out wide matchups for week 13. To keep up with the latest defensive trends we updated the analysis to only include the last 5 weeks.

The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed out wide over the past 5 weeks.

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The goal of this article is to find WRs to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key out wide matchups for week 12. To keep up with the latest defensive trends we updated the analysis to only include the last 5 weeks.

The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed out wide over the past 5 weeks.

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On behalf of all of us at Razzball, let me start by wishing you all a Happy Thanksgiving. Hopefully you enjoyed the day filled with family, food, and football. As it has been since 2006, we got 6 games on Thanksgiving including the traditional Cowboys and Lions games. The NFL laid these games out perfectly for us as we got a boring bread and butter appetizer game between Detroit and Chicago to kick off the day. After that, we were treated to the main course which was a Dallas and Las Vegas game that had an exciting second half and even went into overtime. The Thanksgiving slate finished with a sloppy pie a la mode game between Buffalo and New Orleans. Let’s recap the appetizer, main course, and dessert games.

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