What to Expect From Rookie Running Backs in 2023

Running backs have the shortest lifespan of all footballers so when you draft one in dynasty, you’re hoping for immediate output. Likewise, when risking an early-round redraft pick on this year’s crop of runners, you’d like to know what to expect. Well lucky for you, that’s exactly what we’re looking at today!

We’ll be breaking this year’s crop into groups based on their draft position to predict their year-one fantasy finish. We’ll also look at when these runners hit a significant workload (defined as 15 touches in a game) to assess how long it takes for rookies to take on a major role. We’ll also look at their fantasy finish after that time and for players who had major injuries, their output until that point.

1^st round rookies (eg. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs):

While late first-rounders can sometimes go wrong, players drafted in the top dozen like Robinson and Gibbs are almost locked into a starting workload and a top-10 fantasy finish. Yes, Gibbs will be sharing with David Montgomery, but Christian McCaffrey managed an RB8 finish while being out-touched by Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart in 2017. This is about as certain as it gets when it comes to projecting rookies.

Late 2^nd round rookies (eg. Zach Charbonnet):

It’s very hard to project late second-rounders for big workloads in the NFL, as most slide into a backup or committee role. There have been notable exceptions, with Eddie Lacy and Miles Sanders moving into vacant backfields and Jeremy Hill replacing the veteran BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but that doesn’t apply to this year’s option, Zach Charbonnet. The UCLA graduate is a fantastic talent but this is an awful landing spot. Kenneth Walker is the every-down back with Charbonnet projected for passing-down work at best. While he would likely take over a heavy role if Walker goes does, outside that, he’s headed for RB40-50 production like the many in the table below who didn’t luck into a lead role.

3^rd round rookies (eg. Kendre Miller, Tyjae Spears, Devon Achane, Tank Bigsby):

Late Day 2 running backs are a bit of a lottery but the top 5 success of Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt in their rookie season has led to a very ambitious view of 3^rd round runners. In the five years since that epic season, only one 3^rd round rookie has finished in the top 24 and none of this year’s Day 2 rookie crop is being airdropped into an empty backfield. Kendre Miller and Devon Achane look like RB3/4s who will need luck to produce anything fantasy-relevant in a given game. Tyjae Spears and Tank Bigsby are meanwhile upside handcuffs who will need an injury to be helpful to your fantasy team. While this can happen, as Kareem Hunt showed, it’s highly unlikely that most will produce to a level that makes them worth gambling on. These guys aren’t Hunt and Tyjae Spears has huge additional injury risk.

4^th round rookies (eg. Roschon Johnson)

As the massive table of 4th round rookie running backs shows, it’s unusual to have so few runners drafted in the fourth round. Perhaps the low success rate is part of the reason why. Dameon Pierce bucked the trend last year while Jamaal Williams and Michael Carter were fantasy relevant at times in their rookie seasons but there’s plenty of talent below who did nothing in year one. It’s just such a low-probability proposition to draft one of these players, but Roschon Johnson is the kind of talent who could buck the trend. He has the ability to outplay the consistent but one-trick D’Onta Foreman and the underwhelming Khalil Herbert but he does honestly likely end up in a committee or backfield role. He’s worth a late-round pick just to see if he can take over in the first couple of weeks. Don’t hold your breath though.

Other Notable Day 3 rookies (eg. Chase Brown, Zach Evans, Israel Abankanda, Eric Gray, Evan Hull)

In the last six years, 48 running backs have been drafted in the final three rounds. Below are the 11 who have had 15 or more touches in a game as a rookie. Interestingly, only 6 others ever had a fantasy-relevant role in a later season. There’s an extremely low conversion rate with Chris Carson and Aaron Jones the only players who have turned into the kind of asset you’d really want on your fantasy team. So what’s the message? In redraft, these guys are absolute no-goes. In dynasty, I’d consider Chase Brown and Zach Evans due to their skills and landing spot, but don’t expect much from them, nor should you drop a known fantasy factor for them.

Running backs are at their best in their rookie year but finding the right one can be a real challenge. This year, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs should be absolute stars but everyone else is at best a low-floor gamble. Don’t touch on others until the final rounds of redraft leagues and be very careful in dynasty given how strong this tight end class is comparatively.

Check out my rankings and other articles at ffdfantasyfootball.com, or if you have any thoughts or questions, you can find me @thefantasyfirstdown on Instagram (where I answer all questions) and @fantasyfirstdwn on Twitter. Next week, I’ll be looking at the wide receivers.