The Pre-Season has arrived and with that, we got our first look at a whole lot of rookies for the first time. Today, I’m going to take you through what we learnt and how it should affect your fantasy drafts.
If you have any questions, hit me up on my socials @HashtagWasley or check out my rankings here.
Quarterbacks:
There were no massive surprises around the quarterbacks in Week 1 but a few nevertheless jumped out as interesting:
-Fernando Mendoza (LV) played behind Kirk Cousins, as expected, and performed well against a mediocre Cardinals defense. He looked as advertised but won’t be a Week 1 starter and is only a dynasty stash.
-Ty Simpson (LAR) surprisingly played behind Stetson Bennett but was very impressive with the Rams back-ups, passing from 190 yards and two scores, completing 84% of his passes. It’s not surprising he played as the Rams always sit out their starters in pre-season, but playing behind Bennett suggests he’s not even an obvious backup were Matthew Stafford to get injured. This shouldn’t impact his dynasty value though.
-Carson Back (ARI) didn’t play due to a rib injury after a solid performance in the Hall of Fame game last week. He’s unsurprisingly the QB3 behind Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew but will make the roster regardless.
-Drew Allar (PIT) has to wait until the second half to make an appearance, playing behind Mason Rudolph and Will Howard. While he did outplay the other two, he was competing against weaker defenders. The QB3 spot appears to be an open competition but I expect Allar to make the final roster. He showed long-term upside.
-Cade Klubnik (NYJ) started with Geno Smith out injured and was done by the end of the first quarter. While he played a little past the other starters, he’s clearly viewed as the QB2 right now and could easily see the field this season if Smith continues to struggle, as he has at training camp. He’s a good deep-league/superflex stash.
-Garrett Nussmeier (KC) is already ahead of Chris Oladokun in KC and played behind just Justin Fields this week, with Patrick Mahomes out injured. This really improved his odds of making the roster.
-Luke Altmyer (DET) surprisingly started for the Lions ahead of veteran Joshua Dobbs and is looking like the QB2 if Detroit don’t sign anybody else. This is a surprise but it’s likely someone else would be signed to start if Jared Goff experiences a serious injury, especially after the UDFA threw two picks and looked pretty rough against the Bengals.
-The other rookie passers are all well down the depth chart. Cole Payton is the QB4 in Philly, Taylen Green didn’t play for the Browns, Athan Kaliakmanis is the QB4 in Washington, Behren Morton is the QB3 of 3 in New England behind Tommy DeVito, Joe Fagnano was the surprise QB3 in Baltimore but is a long way from Tyler Huntley, Haynes King didn’t play for Carolina and plenty of other UDFAs are buried even deeper.
Running Backs:
Running back usage is hard to project from the pre-season, as teams often leave out their stars or use players in unusual ways. But that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to learn:
-Jeremiyah Love (ARI) is the clear starter in Arizona, putting to rest any fears that he might get eased into the offense. Top 5 RB draft picks nearly always finish as a RB1 for fantasy but that will still be hard for Love. Tyler Allgeier will still be heavily involved and will often get the ball when he’s on the field. It also remains to be seen if James Conner or Trey Benson will be involved and who gets the key receiving downs. This week certainly has me more confident on Love as a mid-range RB2 with upside, but the floor is still very low for such a stud runner.
-Jadarian Price (SEA) missed the first pre-season game due to some general lower-body soreness (yes, vague) but he’s back at practice, unlike Zach Charbonnet. Hopefully this weekend we get some understanding or his likely role and how Emmanuel Wilson fits in because at the moment it’s all guesswork.
-Kaelon Black (SF) was one of four 49ers running backs to miss the San Fran game due to injury. Reports suggest he may be behind Jordan James in the pecking order but history suggests we likely won’t know the true situation until Week 1. In very deep leagues, I’m drafting both Black and James, otherwise I’d avoid them both.
-Jonah Coleman (DEN) played behind RJ Harvey while JK Dobbins sat down. But you should never read anything until Sean Payton’s pre-season usage. Coleman is likely the RB3 but I suspect he’s a handcuff for both Dobbins (on early downs) and Harvey (on receiving downs) at this stage. I’m avoiding all three backs unless Dobbins or Coleman falls, though Coleman is a viable pickups in the second round of this year’s weak rookie drafts.
-Mike Washington (LV) is the clear backup to Ashton Jeanty and is one of my favorite late round pickups this year. You can get him very late in drafts and it appears clear he’ll be an every-down starter if Jeanty goes down. That may not have a lot of value in the Raiders offense, but that clarity of role is valuable.
-Emmett Johnson (KC) played interchangeably with Brashard Smith behind Kenneth Walker but ahead of Emari Demercado for the Chiefs. We likely won’t know until Week 1 who the true backup is, but I suspect were Walker to go down we’d see some sort of committee situation, meaning neither has much redraft value.
-Nicholas Singleton (TEN) looks like the RB3 in Tennessee behind Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. That doesn’t make him totally useless though. This is a new coaching staff who could easily move off Pollard. In fact, the starting situation already looks more like a committee. So while I wouldn’t draft Singleton outside very deep redraft leagues, he has some long-term dynasty upside.
-Adam Randall (BAL) started for the Ravens, but that doesn’t mean much. A number of UDFAs saw the field before his last snap and all three returnees for Baltimore didn’t play in Week 1. It’s possible Randall is ahead of the injured Rasheen Ali but he’s still clearly behind Derrick Henry and Justice Hill, who were healthy scratches this week. Randall, a converted wide receiver, is likely more of a project and is a solid dynasty stash but a bad redraft pick.
-Kaytron Allen (WAS) is already in RB3 in Washington ahead of veteran free agent signing Jerome Ford. But he’s clearly still behind Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Rachaad White. This is a battle to watch as it’s not impossible he moves up the depth chart before the regular season begins. Even if he doesn’t he’s still a great dynasty stash and a viable though low-upside redraft stash.
-Demond Claiborne (MIN) is the clear RB3 behind Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, not seeing the field until the duel starters had left it. With Jones aging and Mason unreliable, there’s a little upside here, though more in dynasty than redraft, where he’d realistically need two injuries to win anything more than a flex role.
-Eli Heidenreich (PIT) was the last Steelers back to see the field against the Packers. This isn’t surprising, as he’s more of a special teamer than a true running back. He’s not worth drafting in any format including dynasty.
-Seth McGowan (IND) is in an intriguing battle with DJ Giddens to be Jonathan Taylor’s backup. The winner will be a valuable handcuff for fantasy (remember Zack Moss a few years ago?), but sadly Giddens is injured so we have no idea who currently has the lead. Camp reports suggest McGowan has impressed and Giddens has disappointed, but I need more than that before spending anything than a very late rookie or redraft pick on the 7th-rounder.
-Jam Miller (NE) is battling 2025 UDFA Lan Larrison for the Patriots RB3 spot after Terrell Jennings went down for the season. That has limited value given both Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson are capable of carrying the load in an event of an injury to the other. But in deeper dynasty leagues, it enough to at least roster Miller for now.
-Noah Whittington (HOU) started for the Texans with David Montgomery, Woody Marks and Jawhar Jordan all sitting. The top two are set in stone but Jordan’s role is more questionable, as is his health. Whittington is a viable dynasty stash in very deep leagues.
-Roman Hemby (LV) is nominally the RB4 in Las Vegas but has just Dylan Laube, more of a special teamer, ahead of him for the RB3 role. The fact the UDFA already saw the field ahead of Dare Ogunbowale is significant.
-There were heaps of other UDFA who saw action but none were higher than the RB5, though I will shout-out Jaden Nixon for the Packers who could legit go past Pierre Strong and even Chris Brooks into a relevant role. Additionally, J’Mari Taylor for the Jaguars appears in the fight to make the roster in Jacksonville and Jaydn Ott is a popular name in KC who could move up too.
Look out for my wide receiver and tight end rookie article in the coming days.
