The biggest misconception amongst anyone who tries to determine the best players at any position in the NFL is that last year’s production will be improved upon in the coming season. In many ways, this is true, BUT following up on a transcendent season with another is almost impossible. Everything is working against you – Murphy’s Law, mean reversion, this blog post, etc…
I originally came up with this idea to justify why Tom Brady should not go in the first round following his 50-TD season. Trust me, everyone thought I was an idiot. One quarter and 76 yards later, I turned out to be right. Not only is it that defenses are keying on the pass, there also seems to be an uncanny chance that an injury-shortened one will follow a great year. Of the 27 quarterbacks I profiled, there were sixteen instances of injury shortening the season following a fantastic one. Obviously, there is no way to explain why this seems to happen.
Let’s say that someone has a gun to my head and is forcing me to explain why these injuries seem to occur. So now I have to try and explain the unexplainable. My best guess is that these athletes have one more year of wear and tear on their bodies, and are just more susceptible to an injury. Let’s think about this for a second: to perform at a high enough level to be considered transcendent for an entire year is going to require LOTS of snaps. More snaps equals more opportunities to be hurt. So now I’ve been released from gunpoint and I can admit this is a BS explanation… Mostly because there really isn’t one, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen.
Before you draft Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers this year, keep the following statistics in mind. I won’t be taking either of them, regardless of whether or not I have a HUGE soft spot for Mr. Rodgers. The easiest (and most unfortunate) way to have a season derailed is an injury or a whiff on a high-round pick. My suggestion for this season – wait on a QB. There are plenty that will be serviceable.
Please realize that I did not hide any seasons. The following data goes as far back as necessary to look at the top 30+ individual passing performances of all time. Rasheed Wallace is famous for saying the ball don’t lie. In this instance, the numbers don’t lie.
The biggest misconception amongst anyone who tries to determine the best players at any position in the NFL is that last year’s production will be improved upon in the coming season. In many ways, this is true, BUT following up on a transcendent season with another is almost impossible. Everything is working against you – Murphy’s Law, mean reversion, this blog post, etc…
I originally came up with this idea to justify why Tom Brady should not go in the first round following his 50-TD season. Trust me, everyone thought I was an idiot. One quarter and 76 yards later, I turned out to be right. Not only is it that defenses are keying on the pass, there also seems to be an uncanny chance that an injury-shortened one will follow a great year. Of the 27 quarterbacks I profiled, there were sixteen instances of injury shortening the season following a fantastic one. Obviously, there is no way to explain why this seems to happen.
Let’s say that someone has a gun to my head and is forcing me to explain why these injuries seem to occur. So now I have to try and explain the unexplainable. My best guess is that these athletes have one more year of wear and tear on their bodies, and are just more susceptible to an injury. Let’s think about this for a second: to perform at a high enough level to be considered transcendent for an entire year is going to require LOTS of snaps. More snaps equals more opportunities to be hurt. So now I’ve been released from gunpoint and I can admit this is a BS explanation… Mostly because there really isn’t one, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen.
Before you draft Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers this year, keep the following statistics in mind. I won’t be taking either of them, regardless of whether or not I have a HUGE soft spot for Mr. Rodgers. The easiest (and most unfortunate) way to have a season derailed is an injury or a whiff on a high-round pick. My suggestion for this season – wait on a QB. There are plenty that will be serviceable.
Please realize that I did not hide any seasons. The following data goes as far back as necessary to look at the top 30+ individual passing performances of all time. Rasheed Wallace is famous for saying the ball don’t lie. In this instance, the numbers don’t lie.
Tom Brady:
2007: 4806 yards, 50TDs, 8 INTs
2008: 76 yards, 0TDs, 0 INTs
2009: 4398 yards, 28TDs, 13 INTs
Dan Marino:
1984: 5084 yards, 48 TDs, 17 INTs
1985: 4137 yards, 30 TDs, 21 INTs
1986: 4746 yards, 44 TDs, 23 INTs
1987: 3245 yards, 26 TDs, 13 INTs
Peyton Manning:
2004: 4557 yards, 49 TDs, 10 INTs
2005: 3747 yards, 28 TDs, 10 INTs
Daunte Culpepper:
2000: 3937 yards, 30 TDs, 16 INTs
2001: 2612 yards, 14 TDs, 13 INTs
2004: 4717 yards, 39 TDs, 11 INTs
2005: 1564 yards, 6 TDs, 12 INTs
Joe Montana:
1987: 3054 yards, 31 TDs, 13 INTs
1988: 2981 yards, 18 TDs, 10 INTs
Steve Young:
1994: 3969 yards, 35 TDs, 10 INTs
1995: 3200 yards, 20 TDs, 11 INTs
1998: 4170 yards, 36 TDs, 12 INTs
1999: 446 yards, 3 TDs, 4 INTs
Tony Romo:
2007: 4211 yards, 36TDs, 19 INTs
2008: 3448 yards, 26TDs, 14 INTs
2009: 4483 yards, 26TDs, 9 INTs
Philip Rivers:
2008: 4009 yards, 34TDs, 11 INTs
2009: 4254 yards, 28TDs, 9 INTs
Dan Fouts:
1981: 4802 yards, 33 TDs, 17 INTs
1982: 2883 yards, 17 TDs, 11 INTs
Sonny Jurgensen:
1961: 3723 yards, 32 TDs, 24 INTs
1962: 3261 yards, 22 TDs, 26 INTs
1967: 3747 yards, 31 TDs, 16 INTs
1968: 1980 yards, 17 TDs, 11 INTs
Y.A. Tittle:
1963: 3145 yards, 36 TDs, 14 INTs
1964: 1798 yards, 10 TDs, 22 INTs
George Blanda:
1961: 3330 yards, 36 TDs, 22 INTs
1962: 2810 yards, 27 TDs, 42 INTs
Jim Kelly:
1991: 3844 yards, 33 TDs, 17 INTS
1992: 3457 yards, 23 TDs, 19 INTs
Kurt Warner:
1999: 4353 yards, 41 TDs, 13 INTs
2000: 3429 yards, 21 TDs, 18 INTs
2001: 4830 yards, 36 TDs, 22 INTs
2002: 1431 yards, 3 TDs, 11 INTs
Daryle Lamonica:
1969: 3303 yards, 34 TDs, 25 INTs
1970: 2516 yards, 22 TDs, 15 INTs
Lynn Dickey:
1983: 4458 yards, 32 TDs, 29 INTs
1984: 3195 yards, 25 TDs, 19 INTs
Steve Bartkowski:
1980: 3544 yards, 31 TDs, 16 INTs
1981: 3829 yards, 30 TDs, 23 INTs
1982: 1905 yards, 8 TDs, 11 INTs
Warren Moon:
1990: 4689 yards, 33 TDs, 13 INTs
1991: 4690 yards, 23 TDs, 21 INTs
1995: 4228 yards, 33 TDs, 14 INTs
1996: 1610 yards, 7 TDs, 9 INTs
Steve Beuerlein:
1999: 4436 yards, 36 TDs, 15 INTs
2000: 3730 yards, 19 TDs, 18 INTs
Randall Cunningham:
1990: 3466 yards, 30 TDs, 13 INTs
1991: 19 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs
1998: 3704 yards, 34 TDs, 10 INTs
1999: 1475 yards, 8 TDs, 9 INTs
Vinny Testaverde:
1996: 4177 yards, 33 TDs, 19 INTs
1997: 2971 yards, 18 TDs, 15 INTs
Johnny Unitas:
1959: 2899 yards, 32 TDs, 14 INTs
1960: 3099 yards, 25 TDs, 24 INTs
Scott Mitchell:
1995: 4338 yards, 32 TDs, 12 INTs
1996: 2917 yards, 17 TDs, 17 INTs
Steve Bartkowski:
1981: 3829 yards, 30 TDs, 23 INTs
1982: 1905 yards, 8 TDs, 11 INTs
Ben Roethlisberger:
2007: 3154 yards, 32 TDs, 11 INTs
2008: 3301 yards, 17 TDs, 15 INTs
2009: 4328 yards, 26 TDs, 12 INTs
Carson Palmer:
2005: 3868 yards, 32 TDs, 12 INTs
2006: 4035 yards, 28 TDs, 13 INTs
2007: 4131 yards, 26 TDs, 20 INTs
2008: 731 yards, 3 TDs, 4 INTs
2009: 3094 yards, 21 TDs, 13 INTs
Jeff Garcia:
2000: 4278 yards, 31 TDs, 10 INTs
2001: 3538 yards, 32 TDs, 12 INTs
2002: 3344 yards, 21 TDs, 9 INTs
Notable Exceptions:
Drew Brees:
2007: 4423 yards, 28 TDs, 18 INTs
2008: 5069 yards, 34 TDs, 17 INTs
2009: 4388 yards, 34 TDs, 11 INTs
Brett Favre:
1995: 4418 yards, 38 TDs, 13 INTs
1996: 3899 yards, 39 TDs, 13 INTs
1997: 3867 yards, 35 TDs, 16 INTs
1998: 4212 yards, 31 TDs, 23 INTs
Y.A. Tittle:
1962: 3224 yards, 33 TDs, 20 INTs
1963: 3145 yards, 36 TDs, 14 INTs
1964: 1798 yards, 10 TDs, 22 INTs
