Fantasy Football Advice

Brandon Gibson - Gibson was a guy on my list last week after receiving nine targets as a result of Burton’s season ending injury and now he is back on after receiving a monstrous 17 targets on Sunday.  Only Welker was targeted more often than Gibson though Welker did much more with his targets; he caught 15 passes for 192 yards compared to Gibson’s five catches for 61 yards.  However, despite Gibson’s touchdown drop which cost his team a chance at overtime, his sheer number of targets over the last two games has been staggering.  In fact, Gibson has amassed 26 targets over the past two games compared to teammate Donnie Avery who only has 14 targets in his last three.  Here is a short list of players who have fewer targets in the last three games than Gibson has had in his last two: Jennings, Sims-Walker, Driver, Burleson, Ochocinco, Boldin, Vincent Jackson, and Marques Colston.  On paper Gibson looks like filet mignon at the Golden Corral compared to his waiver wire friends, but before you get a half a Snickers bar in your pants remember that the one throwing him the rock is none other than…KYLE BOLLER! @#$%.

Mohammed Massaquoi - Vowel master Massaquoi is another repeat offender on the targets list after a four week hiatus.  Honestly, who would have thought the Brown eyes were capable of scoring 37 points?  Regardless, Massaquoi continued his trend of being the most heavily targeted Browns receiver on Sunday, receiving 12 targets, hauling in five for 115 yards and one touchdown.  It’s nice to see Massaquoi being productive, partly because I have owned him for the past five weeks, but also because he is clearly the most talented receiver on the beleaguered Browns offense.  I’d like to say that Quinn has found his niche and that niche is Massaquoi, but perhaps we should see how he handles the Bengals this weekend (who have given up the 7^th most passing yards this year) before making any Earth shattering, outrageous claims.  Either way, Massaquoi is worth picking up if you have room on your roster.

Earl Bennett – yet another widely available guy with promise going forward who has been on this list before.  Bennett was and always will be second to the target hogging Hester, as he received seven targets to Hester’s ten last week.  However, despite the fewer number of targets, Bennett faired better statistically, catching five passes for 57 yards compared to Hester’s four catches for 18 yards.  Bennett actually leads the Bears in yards per catch (12.8) and he continues to maintain some consistency in a Bears offense that has no choice but to throw the ball, though often to the opposing team.  Over the last four weeks, Bennett is averaging over four catches and 52 yards per game.  The only problem with Bennett is that he is allergic to peanuts and touchdowns.  Well I don’t know if he is allergic to peanuts but I’m pretty sure he is allergic to touchdowns since he has not scored one all year.  Bennett could be a viable option down the road as the Bears face the Vikings, Rams, Packers, Ravens, and Lions the rest of the regular season who are 25^th, 21^st, 7^th, 17^th, and 31^st in passing yards given up respectively.

Pierre Garcon - I’ll admit that a few weeks ago I compared Garcon to Collie and claimed that Collie was a bit safer to start, especially in PPR leagues.  However, Garcon has been dominating the targets and finished only one shy of Wayne last week with nine.  Garcon also had two red zone targets (as many as Wayne) while Collie only managed one target the entire game, turning it into an 18 yard catch.  Garcon finished the game with six catches for 108 yards and over the last four games Garcon is averaging four catches for 68 yards and has scored one touchdown.  Over that same span, Collie is averaging four receptions for 37 yards.  Over the last three weeks, Garcon ranks 12^th among receivers in total targets and has actually caught up to Wayne in that category; Garcon has 30 to Wayne’s 34 and has five red zone targets to his seven, respectively over the last three weeks.  For now, it seems that though Collie and Garcon have their place in the elite Colt offense, the French fireball currently has the hot hand.

Mario Manningham - Super Mario has reemerged over the past two games, recording 17 targets to the seemingly favored Nicks’ 13.  Last week Manningham led the team with 11 targets (Smith had 8, Nicks had 7).  Over the last two weeks, Manningham seems to have won back favor by hanging on to the ball and he is averaging six catches for 88 yards, the highest statistical average on the team (Smith 6/63, Nicks 4/52).  Manningham is still available in around 20% of all leagues and could play an important role in the Giants’ upcoming games against Dallas, Philadelphia, and Washington.

Jeremy Maclin - Maclin has been a target machine over the last three weeks, compiling 28 which are leaps and bounds above the likes of Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, and Mike Sims-Walker.  He has also been productive with those targets, averaging five catches for 58 yards over the last two games and six receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown over the last two.  Though Jackson is clearly the big play guy, Maclin is surely getting his share of looks and with Westbrook out his value only increases.  Look for Maclin to continue to improve on his already daunting pace and he could be a good guy to pick up before the trade deadline as the Falcons, Giants, and Niners are amongst Philly’s remaining opponents.

Lance Long - though he had a rough day on Sunday, only managing three targets (the fewest amongst KC receivers), I believe he is still a good sleeper pick as he has been productive over the last three weeks.  Over that span, Long is 2^nd behind Bowe in targets (18) and is averaging four receptions for 43 yards.  It’s tough to tell who is going to get the ball in this offense but with Bowe out, look for either Chambers or Long to emerge.  Long has great promise and I even like him a bit more than Chambers in PPR leagues.

Useful Target Trends

1) Ravens receiver targets over the past three weeks

-Mason 34

-all other receivers combined 13

2) Bengals receiver targets over the past three weeks

-Ochocinco 23

-Coles 22

3) Calvin Johnson is 6^th in receiver targets over the last three weeks with 34

4) Davone Bess is 16^th in receiver targets over the last three weeks with 27

5) Notable players in the top 15 for red zone targets over the last three weeks

-Robert Meachem (4)

-Jeremy Maclin (4)

-Bernard Berrian (5)

-Josh Morgan (5)

-Pierre Garcon (5)

Sunday’s finally here! To start things off we have our “Matchup Savers,” players that you can start today if you’re in a pinch due to the bye week, injuries, etc. I do all of this within the context of 12 team leagues that are competitive. Often there will be more talented/valuable players than these available- take them unless you are really enamored with a certain matchup.

Quarterbacks

Mark Sanchez: At home against a poor Jags secondary with Cotchery and Marshall healthy.  He’s worth a start over Alex Smith, oh wait, he already sucked all your potential fantasy points out of your team.

Vince Young: This recommendation comes to you via the ground instead of the air.  Young can run and the Bisons cannot tackle people who run.  Just hope he doesn’t try to throw too often.

Josh Freeman: Miami is not good at stopping the pass.  Freeman showed some brass ones against the packers last Sunday.  Miami should be able to control the clock and keep Freeman off the field, but I could see him throwing a strike to Winslow and Stroughter.

Running Backs

Rock Cartwright: The forgotten Cartwright brother should get some looks with Ladell Betts’ foot hurting. Denver is tough, but maybe you have Jacobs, Bradshaw, Slaton, Portis and a possible non-starting Deangelo Williams on your team.  Oh hell, just give up.

Kevin Faulk: You never know when he’ll grab a TD.  The heroes from this Pats/Colts game will probably be the ones you least expect.

Kolby Smith: He could get goal line carries if the Chiefs get any.

Wide Receivers

Robert Meachem: With Lance Moore out and the Saints facing the Rams he is a good play.  He’s owned in 23% of yahoo leagues which means he’s owned in about half of active leagues.

Davone Bess: He’s getting the targets as of late and gets a bad Tampa Bay defense to help him out.

Sammie Stroughter: He has a lot of speed and Freeman likes him. He’s worth a flier if you need another S.S. to compliment the Steve Smiths on your team.

Tight Ends

Brandon Pettigrew: There’s a chance he’s not a free agent, but if he is and you’re wavering about your TE, you can’t go wrong with whoever is going againt the Vikings. They are giving up the most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Gary Barnidge: He plays for Carolina if you are wondering.  And he’s better than Dante Rosario who is in the process of getting Wally Pipped.  Add to that the Falcons have given up the most yards to tight ends in the league.

Bo Scaife: He’s not great by any means, but the Bills are tough against wide receivers.  I expect Young to hand it off often, run it often, and check it down often.  Scaife should get some looks.

Defenses

Tennessee: They have been looking better as of late and with CJ running all over Buffalo the defense should have time to rest up for the QB stylings of Trent Edwards.

Atlanta: Carolina has Jake Delhomme, that always helps, but if Deangelo Williams is out that really boosts Atlanta’s D and they will be a sneaky play.

Oakland: Greg Ellis should be back which will help a little. KC will be passing and I could see some picks in this game, on both sides! Oakland has played much better at home and if you are desperate you can throw them out there and hope they stay upright.

Buy and Sell

If your trade deadline hasn’t already passed it probably will this coming week. I am going to lay out the prime targets you should be buying or selling. There are going to be some obvious ones on here.

Buy High

Andre Johnson/Fitzgerald/Wayne: These are the three receivers I’m laying out there as the best of the best going forward. Nothing mind blowing here. Johnson and Fitzgerald, in particular, have RIDICULOUS playoff schedules.

MJD/AP/Ronnie Brown/Ray Rice/Chris Johnson/DeAngelo Williams: This opens up a can of worms about other guys I left out/dudes that arguably shouldn’t be in this group. Nabbing any of these uber-elite players should certainly help your chances of going deep in the playoffs.

Peyton Manning/Philip Rivers/Drew Brees: This is the same grouping except for quarterbacks. It’ll probably be difficult to pry them away from their owners unless they have a really good secondary quarterback.

Vincent Jackson: Speaking of sweet playoff schedules….. Jackson started off the season hot and hasn’t slowed down since. The playoff schedule is right in your wheelhouse. I’m buying all day on him.

Sell High

Marion Barber: The whole world’s convinced that Barber’s multiple injuries are behind him. Sweet. Now you can unload him in case the masses are wrong (which happens OFTEN). I really am just not a big believer in messing around with injured players. This is an ideal situation because his value has recovered so you can get enough for him.

Miles Austin: Why you hatin’ on the Cowboys, yo? Here’s a great rule of thumb for you- whatever ESPN Analcysts profess, expect the opposite. The Cowboys are the greatest team ever- allegedly. Look they implode every year. Zero leadership, zero discipline. I’ll go out on that ledge right now. Even if you don’t agree with me you should be selling Miles Austin for the right price.

DeSean Jackson: He just isn’t getting enough catches. It’s tough to recommend selling him because he’s such a game breaker but the Eagles are too keen on spreading the wealth. Their Marxist-Lenninist philosophy leaves too many questions unanswered going in to the fantasy playoffs for me.

Ricky Williams: I’ve seen him dealt at a very high value in a lot of trades. There’s no reason to dislike what he’s done so far but the touches aren’t where you’d like them. If it weren’t for some longish touchdown runs in some games his production would be a lot lower than it is right now. If you can get value I’d feel very good about dealing him.

Hines Ward: He can’t possibly be this productive all season. I’m just saying…

Mario Manningham: Not that you’re going to get a ton for him or anything but unless you’re in a keeper league I’d look to deal him as part of a multi-player deal. The later in the year it gets in Giants stadium the harder it gets to throw the football. Add to that Steve Smith is clearly the #1 and Hakeem Nicks is getting more and more targets since getting healthy.

Buy Low

Brandon Jacobs: I hate Brandon Jacobs, the New York Giants, and everything that either one of them love. But the reality is that Jacobs has to be better going forward than he has been to this point. Bradshaw won’t usurp him as the #1 guy (a broken foot tends to make it harder to play football) and the Giants offense should be able to score points consistently.

Anquan Boldin: It’s time for Boldin to stud it up. I’m not going to go on a long diatribe and repeat myself from previous weeks. If you’re going to place a wager throw it down on this guy.

Beanie Wells: I’m buying Cardinals whenever I get a chance. The schedule is too good.  Wells has been a tough trade target because of his potential, but Hightower keeps doing his thing and holding Beanie at bay.  I can’t guarantee Wells will blow up in the second half, but I think he’s worth the risk for anybody who needs to make a push to get in the playoffs.

Dwayne Bowe: Hey this is Doc speaking, Drew hates Dwayne Bowe, so he would never say to buy him; I’m going rogue here! The Chiefs are a horrible, horrible team, but with LJ gone and my man Lance Long in the slot and Chris Chambers giving some name recognition to the #2 position I see ex-Pat Haley going for a pass heavy offense.  Does Bowe live up to his potential? No, but he shows flashes and with more opportunities even a blind squirrel can find a nut. His schedule isn’t great, but I think he can be had for cheap and Asomugha may make him even cheaper.  If you are looking to shake things up, take a flier on him.

Sell Low

LaDanian Tomlinson: His value has recovered somewhat; take what you can get now and run with it. He just doesn’t look strong running the football. It’s sad to see such a great player on the decline but its happening. Oh well, Hall of Fame shouldn’t be that bad.

Steve Smith (CAR): You might be able to trick someone into thinking that he isn’t bad anymore. Hopefully he’ll score a couple touchdowns today and boost his value up.

Greg Jennings: Deep threat receiver with a quarterback who might get sacked a record number of times. I tried to come up with something to like about his situation but I got nuttin.

Matt Ryan: He’s going to be great quarterback. In long term keeper leagues it’s legitimate to want to hang on to him. Otherwise his schedule the rest of the way is horrible and you should move him if the value’s there.

Roddy White: High up on the list of dudes you don’t want heading in to the playoffs in fantasy football, particularly as a high round pick. If you can get something decent in return I’d feel pretty good about it.

Ahmad Bradshaw has been running on a split hoof and it could crack wide open at any moment.  Do you think this means he’ll get more work? Me neither.  I can’t say he’ll get less work, but Jacobs has been running better than earlier in the season and they’ll want to be careful with Bradshaw.  If I had to make a wild guess, uh, prognostication, I’d say Jacobs is the one to own. He could get hurt at anytime, which would then end up getting Bradshaw hurt, and then we’ll all be scrounging around for Danny Ware; which, if you have room you could start scrounging now.

Calvin Johnson: We finally may get to see our old pal Megatron back on the field this Sunday.  Nothing is for sure, and I’ve heard good and bad things about his status.  He’s a game time decision, but if he goes you have to get him in there.  A gimpy Megatron against the Rams is like a one testicled Lance Armstrong against my cousin in, well, just about any sport.  He’s 6.

Andre Johnson: Kubiak pronounced AJ ready to go and AJ also said they’d have to amputate his leg to keep him out of the game. I bet Ronnie Lott would have played without his leg, come on AJ, suck it up! He’s facing a decent Buffalo secondary, but nobody puts AJ in a corner, unless of course they’ve amputated his legs and arms and needed to prop him up somewhere. (more…)

The much maligned Jim Zorn will become a figure head-coach after GM Vinny Cerrato and him had a little talk and “stripped him” of his play calling duties.  I wonder if he broke his playbook in two and gave him a wet willy? He should get his papers in order because he’ll be applying for unemployment really soon, but not soon enough.

Tom Brady: Five touchdowns in one quarter? In the snow? Can the Titans be anymore worthless? This game of course was a great sign for Brady, Moss and Welker owners who had to be a little worried that the Pats weren’t going to humiliate teams and then rub their noses in it like they have in the past. Thankfully they will.

Thomas Jones: I have been down on him all season, but he keeps putting up numbers. But when it comes down to it, Washington is going to keep getting half the looks and they won’t get the Bills every week.  Sell high, and 208 yards and a touchdown is very high!

Ben Roethlisberger: A 72.5% completion percentage is great and usually comes from some banana slug arm like Chad Pennington tossing long handoffs to running backs and tight ends, but Big Ben is getting completions deep and racking up big yardage every game. He seems to have complete control of the offense and is no longer the QB that has to gut it out in the final minutes and is just a good QB.

Chris Johnson: He had 128 yards and a couple big runs. He has the ability to break one at anytime and LenDale White left the game with an injury. I’m not sure where he is on the sell high/buy low slide rule, but I’d just grab it and go all nun on your opponent and smack them down with a trade.

Matt Hasselbeck: He has a great schedule, but he has a horrid offensive line which is probably going to get him injured.  I really am amazed that he was so bad yesterday. He will have some bounce back games, but that o-line is too suspect to put much faith in him.

Steve Breaston: He had another solid game and continues to be worth his weight in fantasy points. And just think how many fantasy points Breaston weighs!  And if Boldin’s ankle injury is anything at all Breaston gains a ton of value, and a ton of fantasy points.

Larry Fitzgerald: Drew told ya’ll to trade for him a few weeks ago and he’s had back to back great games.  The guy is too good to hold down for long.

Mario Manningham: He had a few down games, but is getting a lot of looks in the endzone. He’s worth keeping around and spot starting unless you don’t like looks in the endzone.

Drew Brees: The Giants aren’t a horrible pass defense, but they are nowhere near their numbers so far this year. Brees exposed them like a child looking at a cow and being told he just ate said cow’s brother.

Lance Moore: He will have these games when Brees goes off, but it won’t happen every week. He’s a spot #3 receiver at best.

Jeremy Shockey: He looks like an ass.  Not just your run of the mill guy on the street that gets all red when an old lady is impeding his forward progress, but like a guy who gets in the old lady’s face and says, “do you know who I am?!” And then punches her in the throat.

Mike Bell: The new bane of Pierre Thomas owners.  He is the goalline back.  If he hasn’t been picked back up he’s worth it in that offense.

Hines Ward: The guy keeps on producing.  With Roethlisberger gun slinging, Ward will continue to have solid games.

Matt Forte: Hmmm, it just doesn’t look the the Bears want to run the ball and they aren’t giving Forte enough looks in the passing game. He’s not going to be a complete bust, but for where he went in many drafts he is going to be a disappointment unless the Bears realize they need to get him going so they can win.

Heath Miller: If you picked him up you did well.  In the past the Steelers’ offense hasn’t had room to give Miller the targets he needs for fantasy relevancy, but this ain’t your grandpappy’s Steelers.

Ray Rice: 194 total yards and 2 touchdowns. He is off of simmer and starting to burn.

Sidney Rice: Six receptions for 178 yards.  It was a good day for the Rices and Jerry was nowhere to be found. The Favre has been targeting Rice a lot and should continue to do so.

DeAngelo Williams: 172 total yards with 2 touchdowns pushes him out of the buy low slot and back into the, thank god he went off slot. Jonathan Stewart also had a huge game, but Williams was getting a lot of work near the endzone.

Clinton Portis: 124 total yards = sell and sell and then sell some more.

Kevin Smith: He had Culpepper and Stanton and no Megatron and there really wasn’t much chance for him to have a big game  in Green Bay, but after his bye he has some nice matchups.  Send out some feelers for him, especially if his owner is having RB bye problems.

Fred Taylor’s ankle took a time machine back to when it was younger and attached to the aptly nicknamed Fragile Fred.  He was looking ok for the Patriots, but he could be out for the rest of the season and even if he isn’t he is still extremely droppable.

Ronnie Brown: My masculine infatuation with Ronnie has paid off so far, but this might be the biggest test to Super Badass Brown. SBB has a Jets D that is tough against the run, but is also getting Calvin Pace back from a 4 game suspension.  That’s a long time to be suspended.  I wonder if it was some kind of S&M thing.  Whatever it was, Pace is a stud and will make that defense even better.  I’d start Brown against the best of the ‘85 Bears and ‘75 Steelers combined, but don’t expect a huge game. Maybe just 275 total yards and 5 TD’s.

Cadillac Williams: The offensive coordinator Greg Olson wants to make him the main back, but he forgot to take into account Caddy’s bald tires.  The dude cannot be an every down back without breaking, rupturing or tearing something.  For now, if you are unfortunate enough to own him, you probably have to throw him out there as a flex play as long as he is the main guy.  And how many jobs does Greg Olson have?  Isn’t that a conflict of interest?

Miles Austin: According to google maps, it is exactly 1,175 miles to Austin from here.  Sounds like an odd first line to a country song.  There is a chance Roy Williams won’t go against KC, so Austin would be a nice pickup.  I’m hoping Williams sits because I see a very big game from Austin against the KC corners if he does.

Eli Manning: Will he or won’t he? the answer is certainly “yes!” if the question is, will Eli do any commercial offered him?  But, if the question is, will he play on Sunday?, the answer is, I dunno.  He’ll probably be a game time decision, but they do have a early game so you should be able to check the news Sunday morning (which you can do in the comments of Sunday’s post!) (more…)