In this article we will break down how many fantasy points a defense allows to wide receivers from the slot vs. out wide. The analysis will hopefully help us better identify which types of wide receivers to target each week based on where they see the most targets.
For week 1 we will review how the teams in the AFC home games faired vs. slot and outside wide receivers in 2020. We will then look at what has potentially changed from last season and what information could repeat in 2021. The below chart outlines all the teams that are featured in the AFC home games in week 1 and listed by how many total fantasy points they allowed to the wide receiver position last season.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find some of those articles here:
Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football
Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 2
Fantasy Points Per Reception – Wide Receiver Edition Part 2
In this article we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR regression candidates from 2020 at the tight end position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players who you should potentially fade at their ADP in 2021.
A couple things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for tight ends over the past 10 seasons is 1.93. For a tight end to see one point less per game they need to average three receptions per game and see an increase in FPPR of .35.
2021 FPPR Regression Candidates
Player: Travis Kelce
2020 FPPR: 2.48
Career avg. FPPR: 2.26
FPPR Variance: 10%
AFC HOME GAMES | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Slot PPG | Wide PPG | Total PPG | % Slot |
TEN | 12.3 | 24.6 | 36.9 | 33% |
SEA | 13.1 | 21.3 | 34.4 | 38% |
MIN | 10.5 | 23.7 | 34.2 | 31% |
HOU | 13.2 | 19.7 | 32.9 | 40% |
CLE | 13.3 | 19.3 | 32.6 | 41% |
MIA | 11.3 | 20.8 | 32.1 | 35% |
JAX | 10.4 | 21.3 | 31.7 | 33% |
LV | 13.4 | 18.2 | 31.6 | 42% |
IND | 11.9 | 18.9 | 30.8 | 39% |
CIN | 9 | 21.1 | 30.1 | 30% |
ARI | 11.5 | 17.5 | 28.9 | 40% |
PIT | 11.4 | 17 | 28.4 | 40% |
NE | 10.6 | 17.6 | 28.2 | 38% |
BUF | 8.8 | 17.6 | 26.4 | 33% |
BAL | 9.9 | 16.3 | 26.2 | 38% |
KC | 8.9 | 16.8 | 25.7 | 35% |
2020 PPG |
2021 Projected PPG
|
---|---|
17.3 | 15.8 |
Please, blog, may I have some more?