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Bobby LaMarco

Author: Bobby LaMarco

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Bobby LaMarco

Defense Slot vs. Wide Analysis – AFC Home Games Week 1

September 10, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy | 1 Comment

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In this article we will break down how many fantasy points a defense allows to wide receivers from the slot vs. out wide. The analysis will hopefully help us better identify which types of wide receivers to target each week based on where they see the most targets.

For week 1 we will review how the teams in the AFC home games faired vs. slot and outside wide receivers in 2020.  We will then look at what has potentially changed from last season and what information could repeat in 2021. The below chart outlines all the teams that are featured in the AFC home games in week 1 and listed by how many total fantasy points they allowed to the wide receiver position last season.

 

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Bobby LaMarco

Fantasy Points Per Reception Analysis Tight End Edition – Part 2

August 28, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy | 10 Comments

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Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find some of those articles here:

Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 2

 Fantasy Points Per Reception – Wide Receiver Edition Part 2

In this article we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR regression candidates from 2020 at the tight end position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players who you should potentially fade at their ADP in 2021.

A couple things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for tight ends over the past 10 seasons is 1.93. For a tight end to see one point less per game they need to average three receptions per game and see an increase in FPPR of .35.

 

2021 FPPR Regression Candidates

 

Player: Travis Kelce

2020 FPPR: 2.48

Career avg. FPPR: 2.26

FPPR Variance: 10%

 

AFC HOME GAMES
Team Slot PPG Wide PPG Total PPG % Slot
TEN 12.3 24.6 36.9 33%
SEA 13.1 21.3 34.4 38%
MIN 10.5 23.7 34.2 31%
HOU 13.2 19.7 32.9 40%
CLE 13.3 19.3 32.6 41%
MIA 11.3 20.8 32.1 35%
JAX 10.4 21.3 31.7 33%
LV 13.4 18.2 31.6 42%
IND 11.9 18.9 30.8 39%
CIN 9 21.1 30.1 30%
ARI 11.5 17.5 28.9 40%
PIT 11.4 17 28.4 40%
NE 10.6 17.6 28.2 38%
BUF 8.8 17.6 26.4 33%
BAL 9.9 16.3 26.2 38%
KC 8.9 16.8 25.7 35%
2020 PPG
2021 Projected PPG
17.3 15.8

 

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Bobby LaMarco

Fantasy Points Per Reception Analysis Tight End Edition – Part 1

August 27, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy |

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Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find some of those articles here:

Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 1

 Fantasy Points Per Reception – Wide Receiver Edition Part 1

In this article we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR positive regression candidates from 2020 at the tight end position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players who will potentially outkick their ADP in 2021.

A couple things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for tight ends over the past 10 seasons is 1.93. For a tight end to see one point more per game they need to average three receptions per game and see an increase in FPPR of .35.

 

2021 FPPR Positive Regression Candidates

Player: Gerald Everett

2020 FPPR: 1.66

Career avg. FPPR: 2.10

FPPR Variance: -21%

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Bobby LaMarco

Fantasy Points Per Reception Analysis Wide Receiver Edition – Part 2

August 21, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy | 2 Comments

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In this article, we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR regression candidates from 2020 at the wide receiver position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players to potentially fade in 2021.

A couple of things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for wide receivers over the past 10 seasons is 2.19. For a wide receiver to see one point less per game they need to average four receptions per game and see a decrease in FPPR of .25.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Bobby LaMarco

Fantasy Points Per Reception Analysis Wide Receiver Edition – Part 1

August 20, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy |

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In this article, we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR positive regression candidates from 2020 at the wide receiver position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players to potentially buy in 2021.

A couple of things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for wide receivers over the past 10 seasons is 2.19. For a wide receiver to see one point more per game they need to average four receptions per game and see an increase in FPPR of .25. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Bobby LaMarco

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 2

August 15, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy | 2 Comments

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Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find those articles here:

Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football

Point Per Rush Attempt Analysis – Regression Candidates

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 1

 In this article we breakdown Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR regression candidates from 2020 at the running back position to help you identify players to potentially fade in 2021.

As a reminder the league average for FPPR over the past 10 seasons is 1.49. For a running back to see a half point less per game they need to catch 40 passes and see a drop in FPPR of .2.

 

2021 FPPR Negative Regression Candidates

Player: Chris Carson

2020 FPPR: 1.92

Career avg. FPPR: 1.75

FPPR Variance: 10%

 

2020 PPG
2021 Projected PPG
14.1 13.6

 

Chris Carson has been as consistent as they come over the past three seasons seeing his PPG range from 14-14.8. However, somewhat of a red flag heading into 2021 was Carson’s big drop in touches. From 2019 to 2020 Carson saw his touches decrease from 21.5 to 14.8. Carson was able to keep up his PPG by seeing a 16% increase in his PPRA and 10% increase FPPR vs. his career norms. Based on what we learned over these past few articles one if not both will drop in 2021.

The next question we need to answer is “what does the floor for Carson look like if he were to return to his career norms without an uptick in touches”. The short answer is 12.4 PPG. That would put him outside the top 25 running backs in PPG last season. Currently Carson’s ADP is RB18 which isn’t a terrible price to pay based on his PPG over the past three seasons. Currently backup RB Rashaad Penny is out again so Carson could be leaned on early. This makes it likely for him to see a bump in touches in 2021.   

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Bobby LaMarco

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 1

August 13, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy |

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Before you go any further if you haven’t read the original article on the Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis (PPRA), we recommend you read that first. You can find that article here. In Part 1 of the running back edition, we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR outliers from 2020 to help you identify players to potentially buy in 2021.

Yes, we will be diving into the receiving portion of our analysis, but the concept is the same as the original PPRA article. The biggest difference is the numbers are a bit higher. For example, the league average FPPR over the past 10 seasons is 1.49. For a running back to see a half-point more per game they need to catch 40 passes and see an uptick in FPPR of .2.

The running backs who saw an outlier season of -10% in FPPR on average saw an increase of .47 or 40% increase in FPPR the next season. That means for every 40 receptions these running backs saw an increase of just over one fantasy point per game in .5 PPR the year after they had an outlier season.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Bobby LaMarco

Point Per Rush Attempt Analysis – Regression Candidates

August 7, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy | 4 Comments

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PPRA Regression Candidates

PPRA Regression Candidates

Before you go any further if you haven’t read the article on the Point Per Rush Attempt Analysis, we recommend you read that first. You can find that article here: PPRA Regression Candidates. In this article, we break down, the PPRA outliers from 2020 to help you identify players to potentially buy or fade in 2021 fantasy drafts.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Bobby LaMarco

Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football

August 2, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy |

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Overview

In this article, we are going to breakdown Points Per Rush Attempt or PPRA in fantasy football. First, what is PPRA? PPRA is a metric that shows us how many fantasy points a running back gets per rush attempt. For example, if a running back carries the ball 100 times and generates 60 fantasy points from those rush attempts then his PPRA would be .60. (A running back can generate one fantasy point for every 10 rushing yards and six points for every rushing touchdown).

PPRA Analysis

A question a lot of us might be wondering is, “what is the average PPRA over the past 10 seasons?”. The answer is roughly .58 fantasy points per rush attempt. Now that number might be more notable for rookie running backs as we try to figure out if they could see an increase or decrease in PPRA next season. Don’t worry, we will break that down in a later article. For this analysis we are more focused on the individual players and how they performed vs. their own career PPRA. To do that we had to review the analysis to see if a player had an outlier year in PPRA, did they bounce back to their career norms? A couple things we want you to know before we go any further.

  1. For a player to improve by one fantasy point per game they needed to average 12.5 carriers per game and increase their PPRA by .08. For example, if a running back had closer to 230 carries or 14.4 carries per game then they would only need to increase their PPRA by .07 to raise their PPG by another point.
  2. We identified outliers as anyone who was -10% or more off their career PPRA. For example, if a running back averaged .6 for their career in PPRA anything lower than .54 would be considered an outlier for the analysis.
  3. Not all running backs in the sample qualified in the next year. Meaning they either retired, got injured or didn’t receive meaningful carries/touches the year after having an outlier season.
  4. We will be looking at the positive regression candidates. Or, the outliers in this analysis which had lower than expected PPRA. A similar analysis can be used for regression candidates or players who saw 10% higher PPRA from their career norms.

 

Avg. # of
Outliers Per Year		 Avg. # Who Qualified the Following Year
PPRA Increase of
.08 or More
20.9 15.3 10.8
– 73% 70%

Chart Key

  • # of Outliers Per Year – The average number of running backs per year in the sample that had an outlier season of -10% or more
  • # Who Qualified the Following Year – The number of running backs per season who saw meaningful touches the next year after having an outlier season the year prior
  • PPRA Increase of .08 or More – This is the number of running backs per year who had an outlier season the year prior then saw at least a .08 improvement in PPRA.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Bobby LaMarco

Tight End Age Analysis

June 30, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy |

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When is it time to officially Stop Drafting Travis Kelce?

No, this analysis isn’t all about Travis Kelce, but it basically is since we know we are all thinking it. If you have been reading this series before for running back (click here for RB article) and wide receivers (click here for WR article) you know the drill.

1. The years sampled were 2011-2020 for the tight end position only
2. The scoring format used for this analysis is full PPR
3. The analysis benchmark we will be discussing today is 50 targets. Every tight end ages 21-37 had to have at least 50 targets to qualify
4. When conducting the analysis, it was important to have a baseline for targets as many tight ends who don’t make it typically only play 3-4 years in their early 20s…..yada yada yada we used the same veribage from the previous articles so go check them out. 

Tight End Age Analysis

Like we always promise we will give you the high-level data first and you can take it for what it is worth. The first chart will includes the following:

Age – The tight end (TE) age for that season
Total TEs – Total tight ends (TE) who played at that age over that past 10 years
Total TEs 50 – The number of tight ends who hit 50 targets in a season
% who hit 50 – This is the percentage of tight ends who played at that age who received 50 or more targets in that season at that age
Total Points and PPG – These are the points and PPG in full PPR that these tight ends had at that age on average who hit 50 targets in a season

AGE Total TEs Total TEs 50 % who hit 50 Average of Points Average of PPG
21 9 1 11.10% 94.7 5.9
22 43 11 25.60% 132.1 9
23 116 21 18.10% 125.9 9.1
24 163 27 16.60% 122.3 8.5
25 145 42 29.00% 142.3 10
26 139 31 22.30% 145.9 9.9
27 106 31 29.20% 150.4 10
28 88 27 30.70% 140.3 9.5
29 76 21 27.60% 141.8 9.5
30 52 14 26.90% 163 10.6
31 41 15 36.60% 158.2 10.4
32 25 11 44.00% 135.9 9.4
33 19 9 47.40% 137.2 8.7
34 13 5 38.50% 145.2 9.8
35 8 4 50.00% 164 11.3
36 3 2 66.70% 190.9 13
37 4 4 100.00% 143.9 9

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Bobby LaMarco

Running Back Age Analysis

June 23, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy | 4 Comments

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At What Age Should You Fade A Running Back in Fantasy?

 

The previous intro worked so well for the wide receiver age analysis article we decided to use it again. 

Whether it is dynasty or redraft understanding when the cliff typically comes for a fantasy asset is key to staying ahead of the game. What we did was review the last 10 seasons of running back production by age to see when the drop off comes for the position. A couple key nuggets that you need to know before we get started.

  1. The years sampled were 2011-2020 for the running back position only
  2. The analysis benchmark we will be discussing today is 100 touches. Every running back ages 21-37 had to have at least 100 touches to qualify
  3. The points and points per game (PPG) are in half point (.5) points per reception (PPR)
  4. When conducting the analysis, it was important to have a baseline for touches as many players who don’t make it typically only play 3-4 years in their early 20s. That means if you don’t have a touch baseline in the analysis then you’re including a lot of young running backs who don’t pan out. This would prevent us from getting a better idea of how age becomes a factor since we want to identify the running backs who were able to sustain some level of relevance throughout the years

Like we always promise we will give you the high-level data first and you can take it for what it is worth. The first chart will include the running backs (RB) age, the average total fantasy points those running backs had at that age and the average points per game (PPG) those running backs had at that age.  If you want a deeper dive, we have included more information later.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Bobby LaMarco

Wide Receiver Age Analysis

June 18, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy | 2 Comments

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When Is It Time To Officially Fade A Wide Receiver In Fantasy?

Whether it is dynasty or redraft understanding when the cliff typically comes for a fantasy asset is key to staying ahead of the game. What we did was review the last 10 seasons of wide receiver production by age to see when the drop off comes for wide receivers. A couple key nuggets that you need to know before we get started.

  1. The years sampled were 2011-2020 for the wide receiver position only.
  2. The analysis benchmark we will be discussing today is 100 targets. Every wide receiver ages 21-37 had to have at least 100 targets to qualify
  3. When conducting the analysis it was important to have a baseline for targets as many wide receivers who don’t make it typically only play 3-4 years in their early 20s. That means if you don’t have a target baseline in the analysis then you’re including a lot of young wide receivers who don’t pan out. This would prevent us from getting a better idea of how age becomes a factor since we want to identify the wide receivers who were able to sustain some level of relevance throughout the years

Like we always promise we will give you the high-level data first and you can take it for what it is worth. The first chart will include the wide receivers (WR) age, the average total fantasy points those wide receivers had at that age and the average points per game those wide receivers (PPG) had at that age.  If you want a deeper dive, we have included more information later in the article.

Reviewing Points and Points Per Game (PPG)

WR Age Points PPG
21 177.7 11.3
22 182.9 12
23 183.5 12
24 174.5 11.3
25 191.3 12.2
26 205.5 13.3
27 185.3 12
28 191 12.6
29 194.1 12.6
30 177.6 11.5
31 182.5 11.6
32 171.4 11.6
33 179.4 11.5
34 183.2 11.6
35 154.4 10.1
36 131.9 8.5
37 144.9 10.4

 

As you can see for the wide receiver position there is no major drop off. What we end up seeing is a lot of stability over the years. Wide receivers age 25-29 peak at age 26 but they remain stable up until their age 30 campaign. Meanwhile once they hit 30 instead of a steep decline, we find a slight drop in fantasy production, but it quickly stabilizes similarly to wide receivers in their late 20s. When you breakdown the production 25-29 vs. 30-34 wide receivers age 30-34 still produce at just over 92% in points and PPG vs. their late 20 counterparts.

Overall, only a few wide receivers make it to age 35 let alone reach 100 targets at that age. However, when they do, we can still see some level of production as they produce at roughly 75% vs. age 25-29.

Finally, the drop off isn’t as steep as we might have thought. This slight dip in production followed by a stability period does show that wide receivers in their early 30s who are still producing at a high level probably have a few more years left in the tank. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?
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