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Many thanks for reading my NFL preseason predictions thus far! To date, we’ve covered Aaron Rodgers and the AFC East, Lamar Jackson and the North, Trevor Lawrence and the South, and Pat Mahomes and company out West.
Now, with the regular season coming up fast and furious, I’ll be covering the NFC all at once. Buckle up for a wild ride!
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NFC East
4. Washington Commanders
Last Season’s Record: 8-8-1
Current Vegas Over/Under: 6.5
Frascella’s Projection: 9-8
Fantasy sleeper: RB Brian Robinson seems a bit undervalued because Antonio Gibson has been picking up steam in fantasy circles. As interest in Robinson drops, we get a good price point on him.
Fantasy bust: Curtis Samuel doesn’t get drafted particularly high, but his production was excellent nonetheless last season. I just don’t think he will repeat in 2023.
3. New York Giants
Last Season’s Record: 9-7-1
Current Vegas Over/Under: 7.5
Frascella’s Projection: 9-8
Fantasy sleeper: After a busy offseason, the Giants are overstuffed at wide receiver, but I still think “Danny Dimes” has a special eye for Isaiah Hodgins. Very little risk, where he is currently being selected.
Fantasy bust: Tough call between Saquon Barkley and Darren Waller. I’ll go Waller, since I’m not entirely sure he can stay healthy at this point in his veteran career.
2. Dallas Cowboys
Last Season’s Record: 12-5
Current Vegas Over/Under: 10.5
Frascella’s Projection: 10-7
Fantasy sleeper: Michael Gallup is being forgotten because of the acquisition of Brandin Cooks. I actually like Gallup better at his ADP.
Fantasy bust: Cooks. He just never comes through for me.
1. Philadelphia Eagles
Last Season’s Record: 14-3
Current Vegas Over/Under: 11.5
Frascella’s Projection: 13-4
Fantasy sleeper: D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny are the ‘name’ pickups at running back, but Kenneth Gainwell already knows the way Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts operate. He’s basically free in ADP right now, too.
Fantasy bust: Penny looks like he might be finished. I’m just not seeing the burst anymore.
NFC North
4. Green Bay Packers
Last Season’s Record: 8-9
Current Vegas Over/Under: 7.5
Frascella’s Projection: 7-10
Fantasy sleeper: Christian Watson gets all the hype, but WR2 Romeo Doubs may be a better fit for Jordan Love’s throwing tendencies.
Fantasy bust: I simply can’t take Watson as high as he is going.
3. Detroit Lions
Last Season’s Record: 9-8
Current Vegas Over/Under: 9.5
Frascella’s Projection: 9-8
Fantasy sleeper: David Montgomery isn’t getting enough respect with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs on the roster. “Monty” should do well in the vacated Jamaal Williams role at the goal line.
Fantasy bust: I think Gibbs is going too high. I also think the Lions selected him too high in the NFL Draft.
2. Minnesota Vikings
Last Season’s Record: 13-4
Current Vegas Over/Under: 8.5
Frascella’s Projection: 9-8
Fantasy sleeper: Rookie WR Jordan Addison should be in a good spot with Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson taking defensive looks away from him.
Fantasy bust: Do we really know if Alexander Mattison can carry the load as a true RB1?
1. Chicago Bears
Last Season’s Record: 3-14
Current Vegas Over/Under: 7.5
Frascella’s Projection: 10-7
Fantasy sleeper: Veteran RB D’Onta Foreman always seems to get the job done in recent seasons. Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson are both talented running backs, but Foreman can be had for virtually nothing.
Fantasy bust: Chase Claypool continues to fall completely off the fantasy map.
NFC South
4. Carolina Panthers
Last Season’s Record: 7-10
Current Vegas Over/Under: 7.5
Frascella’s Projection: 3-14
Fantasy sleeper: I don’t like anyone in this passing attack, so I have to go with feisty RB Chuba Hubbard.
Fantasy bust: Bryce Young. Kid is simply not ready. I expect him to be mostly overmatched throughout his rookie campaign in the NFL.
3. Tampa Bay Bucs
Last Season’s Record: 8-9
Current Vegas Over/Under: 6.5
Frascella’s Projection: 5-12
Fantasy sleeper: Mike Evans is getting no respect! Far less proven wide receivers are inexplicably being drafted ahead of him.
Fantasy bust: I guess Rachaad White because the defensive box is going to be stacked up against Tampa’s running game. You can’t exactly be pass-happy with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask.
2. Atlanta Falcons
Last Season’s Record: 7-10
Current Vegas Over/Under: 8.5
Frascella’s Projection: 7-10
Fantasy sleeper: All the talk is around young superstar Bijan Robinson, but RB2 Tyler Allgeier makes for a very effective handcuff in fantasy football. He’s one of the more talented backup running backs in the game today.
Fantasy bust: Kyle Pitts… again? I just don’t know if he has the drive, determination and/or willpower to beat consistent double teams from the opposition.
1. New Orleans Saints
Last Season’s Record: 7-10
Current Vegas Over/Under: 9.5
Frascella’s Projection: 9-8
Fantasy sleeper: If rookie RB Kendre Miller gets off to a hot start during Alvin Kamara’s suspension, we’ll be seeing an awful lot of him this season.
Fantasy bust: Always Michael Thomas, right?
NFC West
4. Arizona Cardinals
Last Season’s Record: 4-13
Current Vegas Over/Under: 4.5
Frascella’s Projection: 4-13
Fantasy sleeper: Got a hunch on Rondale Moore this season, he may actually do something for once.
Fantasy bust: It’s gonna be awfully tough for James Conner with the box stacked against him.
3. Los Angeles Rams
Last Season’s Record: 5-12
Current Vegas Over/Under: 6.5
Frascella’s Projection: 6-11
Fantasy sleeper: RB1 Cam Akers just doesn’t do it for me, so I’m going with RB2 Kyren Williams as my sleeper on this middling squad.
Fantasy bust: Akers. He’s like the aforementioned Cooks. Just never comes through for me.
2. Seattle Seahawks
Last Season’s Record: 9-8
Current Vegas Over/Under: 9.5
Frascella’s Projection: 9-8
Fantasy sleeper: Kenneth Walker III is falling too far. Rookie Zach Charbonnet is getting just a bit too much hype.
Fantasy bust: The man they call “JSN.” Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already hurt, and I had him as my bust prior to that, anyway.
1. San Francisco 49ers
Last Season’s Record: 13-4
Current Vegas Over/Under: 10.5
Frascella’s Projection: 10-7
Fantasy sleeper: Sam Darnold in Superflex leagues. I think we all know Brock Purdy is a candidate for regression at this point.
Fantasy bust: Purdy in Superflex and 2 QB. It’s very simple: Too many of his passes are near-interceptions.
Time for ALL of my win projections, below!
John Frascella’s 2023 NFL Team Win Projections
1. Philadelphia Eagles: 13-4
2. Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5 (dropped them 1 win due to Chris Jones situation)
3. New York Jets: 12-5
4. Buffalo Bills: 11-6
5. Baltimore Ravens: 11-6 (dropped from 12-5 due to Marlon Humphrey’s injury)
6. Cincinnati Bengals: 11-6 (added 1 win because Cris Collinsworth seems very confident in Joe Burrow’s health)
7. San Francisco 49ers: 10-7
8. Miami Dolphins: 10-7
9. Dallas Cowboys: 10-7
10. Chicago Bears: 10-7
11. Jacksonville Jaguars: 9-8
12. New Orleans Saints: 9-8
13. Los Angeles Chargers: 9-8
14. New York Giants: 9-8
15. Minnesota Vikings: 9-8
16. Seattle Seahawks: 9-8
17. Detroit Lions: 9-8
18. Washington Commanders: 9-8
19. Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8
20. Tennessee Titans: 8-9
21. Cleveland Browns: 8-9
22. New England Patriots: 7-10
23. Green Bay Packers: 7-10
24. Atlanta Falcons: 7-10
25. Los Angeles Rams: 6-11
26. Las Vegas Raiders: 6-11 (added a win because the Josh Jacobs situation may be improving)
27. Denver Broncos: 6-11
28. Indianapolis Colts: 6-11
29. Tampa Bay Bucs: 5-12
30. Houston Texans: 5-12
31. Arizona Cardinals: 4-13
32. Carolina Panthers: 3-14
I’ll see ya right back here next week!
John Frascella is a published sports author who has been covering the NFL for 19 years. For more of his Razzball content, plus more, Follow him on Twitter @LegendSports7 for all things fantasy football, basketball and baseball throughout the year.
