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Last week, I started a short series on “MUST HAVE” players for the fantasy playoffs. For the initial effort, I focused on many of the RBs who are primed to lead your teams to fantasy glory. This week, we’ll shift gears and discuss WRs. But before we get into it, here’s a brief recap as to why pre-planning for the fantasy playoffs is so important. You can read the full writeup in last week’s article HERE.
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Anticipating the Schedule Chessboard:
Identifying favorable matchups for your key players during the playoff weeks can provide a decisive edge. Targeting players with favorable matchups or shoring up your bench with potential breakout stars can mean the difference in hoisting the Championship trophy or receiving the dreaded Runner-up prize. I want you to be the former.
Injury Mitigation and Waiver Wire Mastery:
Planning ahead enables managers to assess and address potential injury risks in advance. Whether you scoop up emerging talents or secure valuable handcuffs, these strategic moves can set you apart from competitors caught in the chaos of last-minute decisions.
Weathering Bye Week Storms:
By planning for the playoffs weeks well in advance, managers can strategically navigate and even take advantage of the Week 13 and Week 14 bye weeks. This will involve keeping a keen eye on the waiver wire and nabbing players that others drop to fulfill their bye week needs.
Securing Key Handcuffs and Breakout Candidates:
The emergence of breakout stars or the sudden necessity of handcuffs can reshape the fantasy landscape. By planning ahead, managers can identify players with favorable late-season schedules or those poised for increased roles. Snatching up potential breakout candidates and securing the handcuffs to your star players provides insurance against unforeseen circumstances, ensuring that your roster remains resilient in the face of adversity. Don’t be the Jonathan Taylor owner who failed to roster Zack Moss as a handcuff.
Now that we got that covered, it’s back to regular programming…
Today is all about WRs. As you’ve come to enjoy (well, I hope you enjoy…) my analysis of WRs is that I’ll break them down between Slot and Wide. If you look at the table below, you’ll see the top 14 teams with the most favorable WR schedules by total fantasy points over the 3 fantasy playoff weeks.
Did you catch that? It’s kind of a tongue twister. Let me try with an example just to make sure everyone’s on the same page.
Looking at the first row (Arizona): the “Total” number (42.4) is the average fantasy points to WRs given up by the 3 teams they’ll face during the fantasy playoffs. Of course, the last two columns break down the total points between Slot and Wide (we’ll look more closely at each later). These numbers should add up to the total. If they don’t, some mathematician at Razzball HQ will be getting pink slips tomorrow.
As my good friend, @stiles08, like to tell me…I’m a data nerd. In our business of being a fantasy analyst, I take that as a compliment. Because I’m a data nerd, I want to verify these numbers before I share them with you. So, I set out to do just that…
Looking at the last line (SF), you note their 33.3 total fantasy points are split between Slot (9.8) and Wide (23.6). This one’s very important because we certainly want to have a piece of that offense, and the obvious difference in these numbers will help us make critical playoff roster decisions. So, here is their schedule (weeks 15-17) and the Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG numbers from our free tool:
So, there you go. The numbers check out exactly. Whew! On to the analysis…
Slot
Here is the previous table, sorted for Slot WRs. I’ll give you both the top 10 (players to target) on the left and the bottom 10 (players to fade) on the right:
Let’s identify some of the better slot receivers to target and those to fade (or avoid altogether).
Target:
- ARI – No real obvious stashes here. None of the Cardinals WRs produce enough fantasy points from the slot to garner our attention, despite the matchups. Rondale Moore tends to be the primary route runner (84%), but he’s only averaging a minuscule 2.0 fantasy PPG there. If anyone stands to benefit from this favorable schedule, my money is on Trey McBride.
- NYG – It’s a similar situation with the G-men. Wan’Dale Robinson is scoring the most Slot points (5.3), but that hardly gets us excited (unless you’re in an extremely deep league). Darius Slayton lines up in the slot just over half the time (51%, to be exact), but it’s only translating to 1.3 fantasy PPG. Pass!
- SEA – Alright, now we’re getting somewhere. In our weekly Start/Sit shows, a name that frequently comes up is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. If we’re going to put the “Slot” label on any of the Seahawk WRs, he’s the guy (76% of routes run and 52% of his fantasy points come from the Slot). The rookie doesn’t appear to be hitting the wall, as his work remains steady or even increasing slightly. If you’re looking for a good stash candidate for the fantasy playoffs, he may be your guy.
- NO – The Saints WRs are in rough shape right now, with Chris Olave in concussion protocol, Michael Thomas on the IR, and Rashid Shaheed battling a thigh injury. To the surprise of no one, Olave is the play here. He’s running about 60% of his routes from the Slot, and although only 40% of his points come from the Slot, he’s by far the team leader there. Like the Cardinals above, the Saints TE, Juwan Johnson, may be the primary beneficiary of these favorable playoff matchups. Of course, Taysom Hill is in play here, too, but he’s a whole other conversation.
- LA(Rams) – Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp get the bulk of the attention, but don’t sleep on Tutu Atwell either. He’s scoring about 50% of his points from the Slot and has double-digit fantasy points in 5 of his 11 games this season. He’s a name to keep in mind in deeper leagues.
- JAX – Christian Kirk is the WR to focus on for this matchup…to the tune of 80% of his routes run and 78% of his fantasy PPG. It may interest you to note Evan Engram runs more routes from the Slot than in Tight, too.
- IND – I’ll end the left-side analysis with the Colts and Josh Downs. He’s been one of my favorite recommendations throughout the season, and I’ll do it again here. His route running from the Slot is 78%
Fade:
- CAR – Adam Thielen has been fantasy gold from the Slot this season, averaging almost 11 fantasy PPG there. Unfortunately, it looks like he’ll have some tough sledding when we need him most.
- HOU – Noah Brown has been the same for the Texans, scoring over 14 PPG, or 100% of his fantasy production from the Slot. Since he’s missed the last two with a knee injury, you may have already moved on…probably a good move.
- TAM – Both Chris Godwin and Trey Palmer tend to run from the Slot for the Bucs. Neither is really producing there for fantasy though (4.0 PPG and 3.6 PPG, respectively). Continue to look elsewhere for your WR #3 or Flex options.
- MIA – Can anyone slow down Tyreek Hill? The Dolphins mix-n-match their WRs across the line, but Hill starts from the Slot more than anyone else. The matchups may not look great, but 100% of Hill owners are going to continue to start him regardless. My bet is we’ll see a little less from Jaylen Waddle, Braxton Berrios, and Cedrick Wilson instead.
Wide
Here is the first table, sorted for Wideouts this time. Again, I’ll give you both the top 10 (players to target) on the left and the bottom 10 (players to fade) on the right:
Target:
- DEN – I’ve been harping on all of you to roster Courtland Sutton for the last month or more. I’m here to do it again. Sutton scored double-digit fantasy points in 9 of 11 games this season, and 76% of those points are coming out Wide. Pair that with the “easiest” playoff schedule for wideouts, and he’s one of your no-doubt starts. Lock-n-Load.
- ARI – Marquise Brown is really the only name to consider for the Cardinals. The Week 14 bye week is a perfect time for Brown to heel (see what I did there?) and reconnect with Kyler Murray. If those two things happen, he may just earn his keep with us fantasy owners.
- NYJ – Garrett Wilson is going to be a fantasy starter in deeper leagues regardless, but he’ll become relevant in all leagues if the Jets can get the old man on the field in a meaningful role. In that scenario, Allen Lazard becomes a relevant option as well.
- SF – Brandon Aiyuk. Brandon Aiyuk. Say it with me…Brandon Aiyuk. You’re welcome!
- HOU – You don’t need me to tell you to start Nico Collins and Tank Dell. But I will anyway…
- BAL – After virtually disappearing for a couple of games recently, Zay Flowers is back and better than ever. Check out the Ravens next 4 games following the BYE this week: Rams, Jaguars, 49ers, and Dolphins. Is there much debate that any (or all) of these games could require 30+ points for the Ravens to win? I don’t think so either…and because of that, I want the young WR who scores 72% of his fantasy points from the Wide position.
Fade:
- NE – The Patriots offense is a mess. If you harbored any lingering optimism about playing DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, or Demario Douglas, let me help you put that one to rest once and for all.
- CIN – Yes, Ja’Marr Chase will remain a must-start WR, but he now has 2 strikes in his book for me (Burrow on IR and tough fantasy playoff matchups). If you haven’t yet, temper those expectations a lot.
- CLE – I’ve been out on Amari Cooper for the past couple of weeks anyway, and this won’t do anything to bring him back into the fold for me. I hope you have better options available (perhaps the data in this article can help you identify some), but if you need to ride with Cooper, I wish you the best.
- DET – Don’t downgrade Amon-Ra St. Brown at all. This information will more likely affect our expectations for Josh Reynolds.
- LAC – Same for Keenan Allen; don’t downgrade him at all. Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer (if he returns), however…
- IND – And same for Michael Pittman Jr. Over 90% of his 15.7 fantasy PPG come out Wide but he’s one of those players that is almost matchup proof.
There you go, my “Must Have” WRs for the fantasy playoffs. I still have QBs and TEs left to go over. Maybe I’ll pair them next week. Regardless, hit me up with any fantasy playoff questions and be sure to use the free tools we have at football.razzball.com for all your roster needs.
Lastly, don’t forget to join us every Sunday morning for the one-and-only @RazzballNFL Start/Sit show. Right up to game time, @BobbyLamarco, @SkyGuasco, @Stiles08 and I will be answering all your fantasy football questions. Don’t miss it.
The four of us also come together every Tuesday night to talk about other important topics. Trades, waivers, matchups, and any other topic of importance for the upcoming week are on the table. We have a lot of fun along the way, but our singular focus remains helping you win your fantasy championships. Come join us.
Look for my articles right here each week, and be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret. I’m now on Bluesky as well (@dfavret.bsky.social).
Until next time, my friends.
