We’ve reached the third installment of my preseason handcuff reports. If you missed them you can check them out here: Baby, I’m more than just a handcuff  +  Why do we Handcuff?

We are in the thick of redraft season and the “dress rehearsal” pre-season games are this week. This means we are only 2 preseason weeks away from regular season football. Can we get a “hell yeah?”

{Editor’s Note: Hell yeah!}

There are already a number of clear handcuff situations that need to be addressed heading into your draft day. Let’s jump right in, starting with the highest priority handcuffs…

ADP numbers in parentheses are from fantasypros.com consensus data, compiled from all of the top fantasy sites. 

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What has been the most exciting story of the offseason: Antonio Brown’s never-ending list of excuses, or the Zeke-Jerry Jones banter? The answer… neither. The correct response is Baker Mayfield absolutely roasting Daniel Jones, saying he “could not believe the Giants took Daniel Jones,” before getting defensive and claiming he meant none of it. It’s news like this that gets the attention of most football fans… but neither Baker Mayfield nor Daniel Jones are going anywhere on fantasy draft boards after this event. So how do you know which preseason events do spur change in fantasy football? And how do you know whether or not to buy into these shifts? 

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As the start of the regular season approaches fantasy football ADP becomes tight to the actual market. Everyone has had as much time to digest information and review preseason data as they will possibly get. The next two weekends will see a majority of the fantasy football drafts for the entire 2019 season completed. It’s the time of year for proclamations, flag planting, decisions, “my guys”, whatever your buzzword may be. In the months leading up to now a lot of the focus is on the idea of finding a few rounds of value prior to the ADP stabilization mentioned above for early drafts and best balls. Now it is about identifying the players that just you want to commit your season to. The following are the players that I am trying to come away with at least a piece of in nearly every standard roster PPR draft.

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The middle of the draft should be a solid mix of guys with a track record of decent production and maybe some riskier high upside guys that may be seeing an increased role or a different scheme that fits their skill set. There will be a mix of players that I have already written about and there will be some new names here as well.

We left off Monday finishing up the fifth round so rounds 6-10 will be covered in this post followed by the rest of the fliers that I like on Friday. Once you’re finished with this post pop on over to my RCL post and grab a spot for your shot at 10 RazzBowl openings that we left open for next season. We still have spots available for each day from August 30th through September 2nd.

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Welcome back to another Dynasty Deep Dive. Hopefully you read Rudy’s post last week regarding Vacated Targets, and how they are a big misconception among fantasy gamers. Rudy‘s math proved that there is no correlation in vacated targets and an increase in targets. This week, I’d like to apply Rudy’s theory that Vacated Targets by themselves are generally useless, and instead identify some players worth targeting based on increased Snap Share. We’re going to take that step further and see if an increased Snap Share resulted in a larger Target Share. I want to use Target Share for this because I believe it is a better indicator of how important a player is to their offense. We all know volume is king in fantasy, but Target Share will put these players within context compared to their teammates.  

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If you missed the special announcement a little while back, we have officially launched our 2019 Razzball Commenter Leagues on Fantrax, with the Top 10 overall finishers in the RCL’s getting a spot booked in the 2020 Razzbowl! It’s quite the prize, and I can’t wait to see how the year shakes out. Lots of spots are still open to play against some of our staff writers. Be sure to sign up for a league as soon as possible

Today will be the final post in a series I started two weeks ago, which will be to take a look at the ADP rankings provided by Fantrax (which is gathered by their own site-hosted drafts), and compare that to our own 2019  projections provided by our stat guru/oracle/wizard Rudy Gamble, to identify which players to target, and which to stay away from. Simply put, which players are we high on compared to Fantrax? Which players are we lower on?

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What are you ranking? Everything! You get a ranking, you get a ranking, everybody gets a ranking! You’ll find my Standard, Half-PPR, and PPR rankings below.

What are my rankings bona fidas? Well, there’s finishing in the FantasyPros Top-10 Draft Accuracy (7th Place) in 2017, Top-25 Weekly Accuracy (23rd Place) in 2017, Top-5 Draft Accuracy (3rd place) in 2016, Top-10 Weekly Accuracy (10th Place) in 2016, Top-25 Weekly Accuracy in 2015 (21st Place) and on average we’ve finished in the Top-10 Draft Accuracy (9th Overall) and the Top-20 Weekly Accuracy (18th Overall) for the past four years and finished 30th overall for our Draft Rankings with a 32nd overall finish in Weekly just last season. And this is out of over 100+ industry sites and experts year-after-year. I’d like to think we’re pretty good at this stuff…

What does the word bona fidas mean? According to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary, bo·na fi·des ˌbō-nə-ˈfī-ˌdēz , ÷ˈbō-nə-ˌfīdz means 1 : good faith : sincerity, 2 : the fact of being genuine —often plural in construction, 3 : evidence of one’s good faith or genuineness —often plural in construction, 4 : evidence of one’s qualifications or achievements —often plural in construction. On a separate note, I think it would make a great name for a cat.

What’s my ranking process? I’ve actually written about this in the past, and instead of working hard for new and enlightening content, I have chosen the more efficient (lazy, ahem) method and dropping in a link to that post here. Honestly, my process hasn’t changed much at all (the ole “don’t fix what ain’t broke” proverb comes to mind) and so my “A Day in the Life of a Fantasy Football Ranker” story still remains relevant to this day. (The TL;DR is: I’m lazy as fudge. Well, I mean the other “f” word, but I’m hungry.)

How should I use your rankings? The same way your mother does. Which actually makes no sense. (Unless your mother is in the running to always finish top-3 in your Fantasy Football league. And if that’s the case, say hello to her for me.)

The Razzball Fantasy Football Commenter Leagues are still open, join today!

 

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We are less than 3 weeks from the start of the NFL season. Redraft leagues are in full swing and Razzball is here to help you dominate. If you haven’t signed up for the 2019 Razzball Fantasy Football subscription to gain access to our tools and league-winning projections, try us out with our 7-day free trial.

If you missed my article last week, I broke down the difference between a traditional handcuff and a scheme based/premium handcuff. Also, I highlighted a few premium handcuffs that you should consider on draft day. If you missed it, check it out here.. Baby, I’m more than just a handcuff. Today our focus moves towards traditional handcuffs.

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A friend and I were recently texting during a mock draft and he kept finding pockets of players with similar ADP and seemingly similar upside. We would go back and forth making points and counterpoints, but in the end it was just a gut call. I realized that may not be the optimal way to make that choice on the fly and ventured to create a “checklist” of sorts to compare similar players alongside each other.

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In the first two rounds, you picked the players that you are going to build your team around. Whether you picked two wide receivers, two running backs, or a wide receiver and a running back, the next three rounds are absolutely crucial in building you roster. In this post, I won’t be getting pick specific because there are a few different ways that you could have built your roster in the first two rounds and it also becomes more draft specific regarding who falls to these rounds. I feel that the best approach is to highlight the players that I’ll be targeting and avoiding in the following three rounds. You can always refer to my rankings if your draft board looks different than fantasy football calculator’s ADP. In some spots, it most definitely will look different. Especially when you are doing a live draft with your buddies instead of a draft online where everyone is looking at the same best player available list. 

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The way that you start your draft is so important. There are land mines in every part of the draft and as analysts (loose term, I prefer good with words and played for a long time or guy who is not allowed within 500 feet of a Dave and Busters), we can only give you an educated guess of where they are. They are buried and we hope that by October we haven’t stepped on any.

I don’t believe in any “avoid” or “zero” position strategies and I also don’t believe in the “best player available” strategy. At that point, you might as well just auto draft. The strategy that I believe in is simple: get the players that fit how you want to build your team. For example: if you believe you can build your receivers around Amari Cooper as your WR1, go ahead and take two strong running backs with your first two picks. If you’re like me, you’re eyeing George Kittle in the third round. So what I’m probably going to do is get James Conner as my RB1 if I land in the back half of the first round and then take Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr., or Mike Evans based on availability in the second round. That way, I have a strong RB1, WR1, and TE to start. Let’s go through the first two rounds in a 12 team PPR draft. If you still play in standard leagues, throat punch your commissioner. Eh, don’t do that, I don’t have bail money for you.

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It’s the inaugural episode of The Razzball Football Podcast formerly known as The Ditka, Sausage, and Fantasy Football Podcast also known as Two Dudes Talking about Football who may or may not be recording the conversation. It’s still a sausage fest as Rudy Gamble joins B_Don and Donkey Teeth to celebrate the podcast re-branding/re-launch with an intimate conversation about football projection methodics.

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