Weighing risk versus upside when it comes to drafting a player is one of the most significant ways that value is determined.  The most obvious forms of risk are injury risk and age risk but we could also consider off the field concerns, situation risk (bad team, bad scheme fit), and playing time risk (competition at position) among other types of risk.  This series of posts will aim to shed some light on who the more risky players are and what you should do about it. I’ll start the series by focusing on the running back position and attempting to shed some light on how risk changes as the draft proceeds.  I’ll demonstrate which range (or tier) of running backs had the most risk as measured by their 2014 year end performances relative to their draft position.  Later posts will focus on age and injury related risks and make some suggestions as to which early round players might be overrated this year due to those concerns.

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With preseason, there are always injuries.  It just always sucks from a bitter standpoint when it is an actual usable fantasy product. The loss of Kelvin Benjamin to the Panthers is crushing because they aren’t really quite the offensive juggernaut without him. So what do the Panthers do from the standpoint of making it better for you as a fantasy player? Well, personally, I would like some sort of card or maybe a gift basket laying out their complete intentions about the situation at hand. Unfortunately, I actually requested these things and haven’t heard back from the Panthers’ front office. I don’t blame them… really I was probably asking for a lot.  So from my perspective, I am going to explore what the they will do to replace the basically irreplaceable at this point of the build-up to the season, which is only two weeks away.

Take me on in the Razzball Commenter Leagues here!

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Exclusive picture of the Packers' Front Office.

Exclusive picture of the Packers’ front office.

The world was not ready for yet another ACL casualty. I DREW THE LINE AT SHAUN SUISHAM. AND THAT LINE I DREW, THE ONE AT SHAUN SUISHAM? IT WAS CROSSED PEOPLE. Quite frankly my dear friends, that line has now been crossed ten-fold. More like a billion-fold actually. In today’s podcast, Tehol and yours truly go over some of the precarious situations that the Packers and Panthers now find themselves in with both their star receivers (Jordy Nelson and Kelvin Benjamin) done for the year. What happens to Davante Adams and David Funchess you might ask? Well, don’t worry, because we answer long and we answer hard. Whatever that means. We also go over other news around the league and talk a bit of Draft Strategy to get you ready for your upcoming drafts, which I’m sure are all in the Razzball Commenter Leagues. Right? RIGHT? Right. I mean, it’s a free league and you could win some pretty cool prizes… just saying.

Note: Because of the Jordypocalypse, all of our rankings, projections, and values have been updated and can be found here.

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Greetings! Many of you were no doubt overwrought about my possible whereabouts this past week. Yes, slaying Kings in Canada can be quite dangerous, especially when considering the monstrous killer whales, man-flesh desiring grizzly bears, seals that will bite your dong off when you’re urinating off the bow of the boat, bald eagles that would […]

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Hey Razzball Nation, I am Max, your new fantasy scapegoat guru. I will soon be writing over on the basketball section as well, lending JB a hand on a weekly basis. Now you guys don’t know me. Those annoying voices in your head might be asking, “Who the F is this guy? Is he trustworthy?”. Razzballers you are right, my apologies, let me introduce myself. I play way too much fantasy, I mean if you’re on this site you do too. Been playing since 2005 when I was a mere toddler (high school basketball star). I’ve got a degree in science, and finishing up another degree in finance all the way up in big ol’ Canada where Celine Dion is eating poutine and chasing it down with maple syrup.

Note: Take me on in the Razzball Commenter Leagues here

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Well, this is it, the last required information dump (hehe, dump) for the masses in preparation for your 2015 Fantasy Football Draft. And here it is, the auction values have been released. But I’m guessing you already knew that, because, of well, ^. For those of you who have never played in an auction draft, or for those of you who do nothing but make it rain when you here the words Jamaal and Charles in the same sentence, I’ll go over some pointers so as to facilitate moderate to heavy alcohol consumption without the fear of drafting Mark Sanchez.

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Well, here we go again. Another ACL bites the dust, adding Kelvin Benjamin to a list that already includes Silas Redd, Jeff Heuerman, Ryan Clady, Dante Fowler, Travis Long, Ty Powell, Brandon Harris, Louis Delmas, Shaun Suisham, Stephen Hill, Zach Sudfeld, Sal Capaccio, Reshard Cliett, JaCorey Shepherd, annnnnnnnd Brandon Person. That’s honestly a pretty impressive team, one that could probably do well against the Browns. Even moreso with actual functioning ACL’s. Honestly though, on days like this, you wonder how players would be able to fare with an owner-driven 18-game season when they can’t go two weeks of preseason without some body part exploding. No doubt, this is a downright grueling game, but when Kelvin Benjamin, an up-and-coming wide receiver is lost for the year, well, you can’t just say “shucks” and move on. Well, I mean, you sorta have to, but you don’t have to like it. Especially if your a Panthers fan. Nope. You just say “F*ck!” and drink copious amounts of alcohol…

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I had a scheduled laid out for the preseason where I would write four different streaming columns on quarterbacks, tight ends, defenses and kickers.  To be honest, though, if I were to write about just defense or kickers, it would be about 150 words total, which isn’t even enough to get the article picked up on Google News.  Kickers and defenses just don’t make good streamers.

So instead, let’s combine the two positions that mean nothing and put them into one article.  If you can’t tell by the headline, I hate playing in leagues that use team defenses and kickers.  It’s 2015, bro.  Get rid of them in your league.  It’s the old-school thought that we don’t want to venture into unknown territory.  That’s why you see resistance to auctions at first, or even two-QB leagues.  Team defenses and kickers have been a part of fantasy forever, and leagues continue to keep them around.

Why?

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As I’ve been alluding to in some past content, or peppering, if you will, and I might (because steak?), the projections, like winter, were coming. And since winter is here (in the Game of Thrones sense, not the literal sense), there is no more alluding anymore folks. DEATH TO ALL ALLUSIONS. Because someone once told me that time is a flat circle. Everything we’ve done or will do, we’re going to do over and over again. Alright-alright-alright. In this regard, I wouldn’t mind if this day kept repeating itself. Because of steak, the end of allusions, and the arrival of our 2015 Fantasy Football Projections. Could use more boobs though. I’ll look into that. (Life story bro.)

Now, before we get to the good stuff, I just wanted to go over a few things. First, these projections (for over 500 players!) aren’t just some random numbers put into random places for random people to look at. They are based on career performance, last year’s performance, the player’s durability, and so those three things are mixed, stirred, shaken, whichever you prefer, and then the math happens. I then take what the math did and put my own touches on it (legal touches), altering the numbers a bit here and there. Granted, we aren’t the big boys like ESPN, Yahoo, and CBS, but I’m very happy with our system this year. (And I should note that we beat out all three last season in ranking accuracy, including many other major outlets.) Second, you probably won’t see an exact correlation with our projections and our rankings. There will be matches, for sure, but think of the projections as a median for what we think the player will produce. While I went with a more conservative approach here, don’t be surprised if there’s a 10% (or close to) swing in either direction for some players who either end up over-performing or under-performing. Just the nature of the beast. And these projections will be updated if there are any major injuries or other shifting events, like Trent Richardson not sucking any more, and there will also be minor edits at least once a week, so be sure to check in here and there.

Note: I’d like to thank Rudy, for whom this would not be possible. I’m just going to assume dark wizardry was involved, and just keep my mouth shut. I shall sacrifice several Twix bars in your honor!

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Doug Martin made fantasy owners warm and fuzzy (sorta NSFW) in 2012. After being selected by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with the 31st overall pick in the NFL Draft, Martin exploded for 1,926 total yards on 319 carries and 49 receptions. He tallied 12 combined touchdowns and ended as the No. 3 running back in standard scoring. Then, 2013 Doug Martin happened. To say Martin was a disappointment is an understatement. Fantasy drafters were selecting him as the No. 2 running back off the board, right behind Adrian Peterson. Before Martin was shut down for the year due to a shoulder injury, he rushed 127 times for 456 yards. He caught 12 balls for 66 yards and only scored one combined touchdown. He ended up scoring 0.8 fantasy points more than Shonn Greene and 2.1 less than Brandon Bolden. So what happened?

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So, wouldn’t it be cool if you could take on some of your favorite contributors and all of the Razzball readers/commenters in one huge Free Fantasy Football League? IT WOULD BE COOL YO. That’s why we made this possible. And why it was in all caps. Welcome to the 2015 Fantasy Football RCL! Where all of the Razzballers get to hang out, talk some football, and compete against each other in the game we all love. While we can’t create a single 500 person league as of yet, since the technology has yet to be invented, what we can do is create multiple 12-person leagues and pit them all against each other. If you don’t like that, well, you can be the one to wait for the future to come. So enjoy those dragons with lasers, wearing leather and blasting Daft Punk. ENJOY IT. However, if you are not such a timey prude, join us for some fantasy football funnage. Totally a word. So I present to you: the 2015 RCL Fantasy Football Season, with prizes!

Before you get started, I know that some of you out there may have never played fantasy football before. That’s okay! Razzball has a Beginners Fantasy Football Guide just for you. Maybe you’re a seasoned veteran, well, we have a 2015 Fantasy Football Draft Kit that’s being updated everyday, be sure check it out multiple times. (That’s what she said.) And can’t think of a team name? Check out our Fantasy Football Team Name Generator. Need some rankings? Oh, we got some Fantasy Football Rankings for ya! Now, let’s get to the good stuff…

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In my last post, The Legend of the Bid Button, and the first in this series, I examined and explained my strategy for approaching auction drafts. The key stat that I rely upon is “points per dollar” (PPD). How many fantasy points a player is expected to get me for each auction dollar I spend on him. If you have not read that post, please take ten minutes and do so. For those that have already done so and are back for round two, welcome back. While we have ten minutes to kill as we wait for everyone else to catch up, here is a link to a sub-five minute speed run of Super Mario Brothers. Feel free to watch it twice. I know these guys use tools to help accomplish this, but as someone who played this game back when it first came out, this is still pretty awesome.

Ok, now let’s get back to our regularly scheduled programming. I’d like to take a look back at last season’s PPD heroes and zeros…

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