A lot of fantasy football rankings and projecting boils down to how one distributes rush attempts and targets to a team’s RB/WR/TE. There are macro-variables (e.g., how many plays will the team run? what is the rush/pass split?), rate variables (what is the player’s catch rate?, what is their yards per target?) and kinda but not completely fluky TD projecting. But, for the most part, each season’s non-injury based breakouts and disappointments can be tied to a larger rush and/or target percentage than estimated by the consensus.