Fantasy Football Advice

(Editor’s note: Make sure you join our week 16 contest.  If you don’t, people will laugh at you!)

Josh Morgan: The captain in you should take a shot of Morgan as the new aerial assault in San Fran has been turning coal into diamonds; if you’re a cagey owner, you just might find some in your stocking.  Jimmy Raye’s system has clearly benefited Morgan who has seen a jump in targets and production.  Last week he was targeted eight times (one behind Crabtree) catching seven balls for 61 yards and a touchdown.  Though his numbers in week 14 dipped slightly, he had six receptions in both week 12 and 13.  Though I wouldn’t bet the farm on Morgan, if you are an owner looking for a safe flex play without a tremendously high ceiling, I would take Morgan against the Lions.  Over his last four games he has been hovering around 5-6 receptions for 50-70 yards and his chances of scoring are relatively high this weekend.

Dwayne Bowe: Hey kids, Bowe knows drugs…and football.  Fresh off a four game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy (banned diuretic), Bowe had a strong showing with four catches for 56 yards on ten targets.  As much as I hate Dwayne Bowe (and I really hate Dwayne Bowe) you should grab him this weekend if he is somehow still on waivers.  He has a nice matchup against the Bengals who were absolutely torched by Vincent Jackson last week.  Who knows, perhaps his work ethic has improved as it is much harder to throw up after meals than it is to take a weight loss drug.

Mike Wallace: Many will be shopping at Wally world this holiday season but buyers beware; Wallace has only caught two passes in each of his last four games for a total of 156 yards.  His only two touchdowns over the last four weeks came this past weekend off his two receptions for 79 yards.  Yes, the win against the Packers may be the spark that Pittsburgh needs and yes, they do favor the pass which challenges everything I’ve ever known about Pittsburgh football, but to me he is a very risky play against Baltimore in one of the most important fantasy weeks of the year.  He is still a distant third on the team in targets, commanding only 11 over the past three weeks (Ward has 28 and Holmes has 31 over that same span), so before you jump on the Wallace wagon, proceed with caution.

Justin Gage: If success is “gauged” on touchdowns in your league, than Gage is “Justin’” time to bring you a fantasy championship.  Gage is truly a playmaker and he hasn’t had much time to reap the benefits of the newly polished Tennessee offense.  Starting in the 3^rd receiver spot on Sunday after coming off a back injury, Gage was targeted three times (2^nd behind Washington who had 5), catching two passes for 43 yards and two touchdowns.  Now that’s efficiency.  Expect Gage to see an increased role moving forward and he has a pretty good matchup against San Diego this weekend.

David Anderson: The Texans’ third receiver may actually have some safe play value in deep leagues.  Anderson’s role has certainly increased as a result of Daniels’ injury and he has been fairly consistent over the second half of the season.  Over the last three weeks Anderson has accumulated 15 targets.  Last week Anderson caught five passes for 34 yards and he has caught at least four passes in each of the last three games.  Don’t get me wrong, I think you have to be really desperate to use him, but if the other options are picked over he can at least give you some stability in deeper PPR leagues.

Devin Aromashadu: The man who caught eight passes for 76 yards and a touchdown in week 14 was much less impressive this past weekend, catching only two passes for ten yards.  The good news is that he was targeted ten times though three of those targets were intercepted.  The hapless Jay Cutler likes Aromashadu, but lately he’s been as responsible with the football as Tiger Woods has been with his marriage.  At this point I can’t say that I recommend Aromashadu, but he could be a risk reward play for you daring owners against a Minnesota pass defense that was ripped up by Matt Moore. P.S. check Hester’s injury status before investing.

Greg Camarillo: The Dolphins’ possession receiver has looked good lately and though I still think that Bess is the man, Camarillo’s consistency could come in handy, especially in PPR leagues.  This past weekend he led Dolphin receivers with ten targets, catching five passes for 46 yards.  Over the last three weeks, Camarillo is only one behind Bess in total targets with 27 and he had a monster game against Jacksonville in week 14, catching seven passes for 110 yards.  Camarillo’s lack of touchdown production will keep his ceiling low, but he may be able to provide a solid 8-12 points or more against Houston this weekend.

Target Trends

1. Player with the most targets last week

-Steve Smith (Car) (15)

2. Players with fewer targets last week than Deion Branch (10)

-Santonio Holmes, Marques Colston, Mike Sims-Walker, Brandon Marshall, Randy Moss, Donald Driver, Larry Fitzgerald

3. Brandon Marshall has the most targets over the last three weeks (48)

4. Michael Crabtree has the 6^th most targets over the last three weeks (32)

5. New Orleans Saints’ receiver target leaders over the last three weeks

-Meachem (24), Colston (22)

6. Players with equal to or fewer targets than Malcom Floyd over the last three weeks

-Randy Moss, Desean Jackson, T.O., Donald Driver, Reggie Wayne

Editors note: I’d like to thank Jen for joining the Razzball team.  We might have to take the pinball machine out of the women’s bathroom at Razzball headquarters! Follow her insightful twitter comments here.

QB: START: Joe Flacco (v. DET): I know, he’s been an overall fantasy disappointment the last few weeks, especially given his great start to the season. His three interceptions in primetime Monday night were atrocious, along with penalties galore, made for an ugly performance. But the Ravens, especially Flacco, have the chance to redeem themselves this week with a matchup against a weak Detroit defense. With Flacco most likely eager to right all his wrongs from Monday night, and with the Ravens trying to stay in playoff contention, expect him to have a much better showing this week against the Lions.

Other starts: Ben Roethlisberger (@CLE), Vince Young (@StL), Kurt Warner (v. SF), Philip Rivers (@DAL), Tony Romo (v.SD), David Garrard (v.MIA), Chad Henne (@JAX)

SIT: Jay Cutler (v. GB): This is probably obvious, but I would like to essentially nip in the bud anyone’s idea of possibly thinking about starting him after not throwing picks last week. Chances are, you have a better option available for picking up. Keep in mind that last week, Cutler played the lowly Rams, and the overall game plan was very cautious, mostly looking to Forte and the run in the red zone (because we know Jay Cutler is the King of the Red Zone Interception). Against a Green Bay defense who played quite well against Baltimore and held the running game in check and pulled down three picks, an unreliable Cutler is not a smart start.

SIT: Whoever is the QB on Sunday for the Falcons (most likely Matt Ryan): Plainly and simply, Sunday will not be a great situation for whichever quarterback is under center. If it is Matt Ryan, there are reports out saying that his turf toe is not completely healed, and that he will probably not be playing at his best if and when going against the Saints. With the Saints narrowly avoiding devastating embarrassment last week against the Redskins, I’m sure they will not want to sweat another one out like that again this week. Already a borderline start just simply based on injury, with Roddy White also not at 100%, and a once-strong running game down the tubes, the Saints look that much closer to the perfect season. And, if Chris Redman starts, there’s not much I need to write here that should deter you from starting him. Quite frankly,  the thought should have never crossed your mind. Overall, the QB position (whoever has it) this week for the Falcons should be on your bench.

Other sits: Matt Moore (@NE), Kyle Orton (@IND)

RB: START: Kevin Smith (@BAL): While Kevin Smith is generally productive every week, this looks like it could be a particularly productive week for him. Although Baltimore does have a stout defense, they have been known to give up a few rushing yards here and there. Plus, with Matthew Stafford sitting this one out, the more cautious approach with Culpepper at QB would be to hand off to Smith as much as possible.

START: Fred Jackson (@KC): Since FJax has officially moved ahead of Marshawn Lynch on the Buffalo depth chart, he is primed to have a great game for two reasons: 1)Kansas City’s defense, which is ranked 31st in the league and 2) a poor performance against the Jets last week, which should motivate him to bring his A game to keep his new starting spot. This game in general should be very heavy on the run, with both teams notorious for having porous rushing defenses and relatively unproven quarterbacks. So, in that case, also start Jamaal Charles (who is not on the KC injury report).

START: LaDainian Tomlinson (@DAL): Last week, the Cowboys faced a Giants’ running game that was depleted with injuries and had been struggling for weeks. Brandon Jacobs, who has been a disappointment to fantasy owners this season, caught and ran for the longest reception of his career, scored 2 TDs, and had many productive runs. Ahmad Bradshaw, who has two sprained ankles and cracked bones in his feet, even managed to grab some first downs against a Cowboys defense that typically falls short in the twelfth month of the year. That all being said, I think LT is primed for a good week this week.

Other starts: Chris Johnson (duh! @StL) , Thomas Jones (@TB),  Laurence Maroney (v.CAR), Maurice-Jones Drew (v. MIA), Quinton Ganther (@OAK)

SIT: Brandon Jacobs (v.PHI): I know I just praised his Week 13 performance, but it was just that; in Week 13. Do not expect that explosive of a performance again against Philadelphia. While chances are he will get a decent amount of carries, what he will do with them will probably not be much. Last time the Giants played the Eagles was a total disaster, and Kevin Gilbride, Giants’ offensive coordinator, rarely calls appropriate plays for what Jacobs is good at and has been calling too many passing plays. Overall, it will probably be a mediocre performance for Jacobs at best on Sunday night.

Other sits: Cedric Benson (@MIN), Julius Jones (v.HOU), Cadillac Williams/Derrick Ward (v.NYJ)

WR: START: DeSean Jackson (@NYG): Though this is obvious, some may be concerned with Jackson’s possible post-concussion symptoms. He has assured that he is fine and playing on Sunday (although keep an eye for any change just to be safe). While generally, the Giants do cover him with the very capable Corey Webster, the rest of the Giants secondary probably will not do as good a job covering him, especially with safety C.C. Brown occasionally having to take on that task. Last time the Giants played the Eagles, C.C. Brown was basically responsible for the blown coverage on every receiving touchdown, and later publicly blamed himself for it. Plus, if the Giants defend against the run as well as they did against the Cowboys last week, chances are McNabb will have to pass. So, have no worries about starting DJax.

START: Santonio Holmes (@CLE): With Hines Ward likely out, and no defenders on the secondary for Cleveland to speak of, Santonio stands to get targeted quite a bit Thursday night. He should, by default (if he’s not already) become the Steelers’ #1 WR. This also increases the value of Mike Wallace, particularly as a WR3 in deep leagues or as a flex.

START: Pierre Garcon (v.DEN): Chances are, Champ Bailey will have his work cut out for him with Reggie Wayne. With Garcon being targeted so frequently last week against the Titans, look for that again. Austin Collie also becomes a viable starter as well.

Other starts: Jeremy Maclin (@NYG), Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin (v.SF), Robert Meacham/Marques Colston (@ATL), Chris Chambers (@BUF), Terrell Owens (v. KC),

SIT: The Seahawks WRs (Burleson and Houshmanzadeh): With Matt Hasselbeck’s value on the decline, and the emergence of Justin Forsett in the running game, the Seattle receivers have not been having great weeks as of late. The Texans have also emerged as a somewhat strong defense, and are in in the Top 15 as far as guarding fantasy WRs as well as pass rush. Therefore, don’t expect big days from Nate Burleson or T.J. Houshmanzadeh.

SIT: Antonio Bryant (v. NYJ): Two words: Darrelle Revis.

Other sits: Devin Hester/Earl Bennett (v. GB),  Santana Moss (@OAK)

TE: START: Todd Heap: With majority of Joe Flacco’s targets going toward Heap, combined with the amount of drops and offensive pass interference calls from some of his other WRs, the Ravens will probably send the ball Heap’s way again against the Lions.

Other TE starts: Vernon Davis (@ARI), Brent Celek (@NYG), Kellen Winslow (v.NYJ)

SIT: Greg Olsen (v.GB): I think that you probably realize that by now, I’m very down on the Bears. With Cutler and Forte both struggling, don’t expect much to go on, especially against Green Bay with the Packers wanting a wild card spot and playing a division rival. Olson has been rendered ineffective in many a game this season despite being Cutler’s favorite target. Expect this week to be no different.

DEF: START: NYJ (@TB): With Josh Freeman’s interception filled game last week, expect a strong Jets’ secondary to dismantle Freeman and Tampa Bay.

START: TEN (@StL): Again, probably does not require much of an explanation. Kyle Boller is awful, and with the re-emergence of the Titans in general and the return of their cornerbacks, expect low scoring from the Rams and the opportunity for interceptions.

SIT: SD (@DAL): Tony Romo had a strong game against the Giants last week, put up a lot of points, but still the Cowboys lost. Expect a strong showing from Romo again and expect that this game will probably be a shootout.

Jerome Harrison, the perennial Razzball add/drop/add, looks like he is finally out of Mangini’s dog house/pound/insert dog enclosure metaphor.  Of course he scored 2 touchdowns while napping on my bench.  I’ve mentioned it before, but now that we know who will get the work with Jamal Lewis out, the Browns have great week 15/16 matchups with the Chiefs and Raiders.  If Harrison is still available, he is a must add.

Vincent Jackson: Wha Happened!? He has been in a major funk recently while Rivers hasn’t missed a beat.  Wide receivers do this, but it’s been a long while since he had a big game.  It’s tough not to start him, but you at least have to start thinkin’ on it.

Alex Smith: He may . . . may have turned a corner. He had a couple touchdowns and over 300 yards up in Seattle.  Yes Seattle’s pass defense is horrid, but Smith has looked good and they seem to feel better throwing the ball than running it (sorry Frank Gore).  If you need a week 16 QB he’s your man.  He gets the Lions.

Matt Ryan: He was wearing slacks, a cardigan, and a walking boot on the sideline during Sunday’s game. It doesn’t look good for him the rest of the season so if you somehow made it to the playoffs with him, make sure you grab some quarterbacks who can walk.

Matt Schaub: He dislocated his non-throwing shoulder and left the game for a while to get Mr. Miagi’d (aka shot full of pain killers). Maybe Mr. Miagi was so high his hands were oozing pain numbing drugs? Anyway, this is a little disconcerting.  He has a good schedule and he probably got you into the playoffs, but he could easily get taken out of a game with another good hit.  If you own Schaub pick up some matchup plays for the playoffs.

Correll Buckhalter: 12 carries for 113 yards is a decent per carry average.  If my math is correct it’s about 30 yards a carry?  That’s off the top of my head. How is this guy faster now that he’s old?  But sadly for him Moreno is still the man and got 2 touchdowns to Bucky’s zero.

Robert Meachem: His one catch, one TD days seem to be behind him.  Now he’s onto 8 catch, 142 yard, 1 passing TD, 44 yard fumble return TD days.  The Saints will tease you with their wide receivers, but Meachem has a nose for the end zone and now is getting more targets.  If somehow he is still on the waiver wire he is a must grab.

Laurence Maroney: Hey hold on there Bill! What’s this about giving Sammy Morris so many carries, and key ones at that? Maroney was a TD machine and then you go and give the ball to Morris, come on!  Look at their names? Who has the cooler name?  Thought so! Maroney only saw the ball twice after halftime while Morris got the ball eight times.  Bill, you are a killer of running back dreams sir.

Antonio Bryant: Ok, he’s up to his old tricks.  5 catches for 118 yards against a good Carolina pass defense? Last year he went nuts toward the end of the season.  He’s probably not available, but he’s getting into must start territory.  But of course he gets Revis next week which makes him must sit material! Thankfully after that he gets Seattle which is quickly becoming the a top matchup play.

Devin Thomas: 7 catches, 100 yards, and 2 touchdowns.  Not bad, but Washington isn’t actually known for scoring more than 10 points a game.  He’s a tentative add if you are in the market for a #3 receiver.

Calvin Johnson: The old Megatron showed up on earth to star in a feature film.  Here’s hoping that there is a sequel or 4.  Stafford could be out next week, but I really don’t see Culpepper hurting his value much.

Chris Johnson: He’s still on pace for a ton of yards and I bet Fisher will want to get him to 2,000.  It will be fun watching him next week against the Rams where he will destroy their will to live.

Davone Bess: He keeps showing flashes and Henne seems to like him.  He will continue to be a good start in ppr leagues from here on out.  Oh, and New England can’t stop anybody from passing.

Roddy White: He caught 9 passes for 104 yards and a pure garbage TD.  Redman seems to like throwing to him and his knee looks ok so hopefully he’ll continue to get targets and put up serviceable numbers.

Jerious Norwood: Well, he got the start over Snelling.  Yep, that’s the only good thing that happened to him.  Wow, the Falcons couldn’t run the ball to save their lives.  I debated a lot over those Snelling or Norwood start/sit questions.  It didn’t really matter huh? I can’t say I’d be too keen on playing either right now.

Greg Olsen: 2 catches for 1 yard.

Chad Henne: He put up big numbers on the Patriots who can’t seem to pin point their heads when they are on the road.  Henne is playing well and could be a matchup play going forward.

Leonard Weaver: He continues to dip into Lesean McCoy’s numbers and this time he gained over 100 total yards as the Eagles embarrassed the Falcons.  McCoy sat for a quarter of the game so it’s not time to go Weaver crazy, but if you are in a cavernous league he is productive.

Andre Johnson: 99 yards and a TD are good, but if you get a bonus for 100 yard games you may not be as happy.  I think I’m boycotting all 100 yard bonus leagues next year.  Why is 99 yards that much worse than 100? Tell me!? Yeah, I own AJ.

Santonio Holmes: He’s been on a bit of a tear recently.  Hasn’t seemed to help the Steelers beat even the worst of all possible teams, but hey, we’re fantasy players here!  Take your 149 yards and a TD and be happy! Oh, unless you get a bonus for 150 yards, if so, get a little pissed.

Chaz Schilens – The Raiders’ top receiver is back…with a mediocre performance.  I know Schilens only had three receptions for 27 yards in yet another pitiful Raider performance during which JaMarcus Russell was benched…again, and claimed he had no idea why he was benched…again.  Maybe Russell should be forced to watch the atrocity that is Raider wife-beating football and then he could understand how the rest of us feel.  Anyway, I digress.  Schilens, in all seriousness, is a great talent.  At 6-4 he can go up and get the deep ball and he has shown some good speed and quickness.  Last week he received four targets, second to WWF wrestler Johnny Lee Higgins.  I certainly wouldn’t waste a waiver on Schilens quite yet, but I may snag him off of free agency if you have an open spot, or I would at least keep an eye on him.  It’s a shame to see such a talent go to waste and I can honestly say I haven’t seen anything like that since…well…Monday night when vowel master Massaquoi fell victim to Quinn’s ineptitude.

Kenny Britt – With Gage held back (pun intended) with multiple, yes, multiple back fractures; Britt has and will be the starter across from Nate Washington in Tennessee’s improved offense.  Somehow Vince Young has managed to release the ball underneath that giant head of his and get the ball downfield without turning it over.  Last week, against a stingy Bills secondary, Britt led the team with five targets, hauling in two for 55 yards.  Earlier in the year, Britt showed big play ability but the geriatric Tom Collins, I mean Kerry Collins (alcoholic reference) wasn’t able to get him the rock.  I am actually contemplating spending a waiver claim on him simply because I believe in his talent and he could have an even better performance against Houston this weekend.

Brandon Gibson – The Rams announced early in the week that Burton is done for the year, which makes Gibson the starter across from Donnie Avery.  Last Sunday, Gibson led the Rams with nine targets, making good on seven for 93 yards.  With Bulger showing glimpses of his old, pro-bowl self over the past two weeks, Gibson is looking like a viable option in deeper leagues.  Additionally, Avery is now an option in shallower leagues or a must grab in deep leagues.  Gibson, a guy who is almost universally available, should get a lot of opportunities going forward, especially with the play of studly Steven Jackson who eats eight men fronts for breakfast.

Laveraneus Coles – Coles is certainly not a sleeper and he is probably unavailable in your league, but Coles’ embers are burning and he just might catch on fire.  With Henry done for the year, Coles seems to be the beneficiary.  Coles led the team in targets last week with 9 and he contributed five catches for 67 yards in the Bengals’ defensive slug-fest with Pittsburgh.  Over the last four games, Coles has averaged just over four catches for 54 yards.  A difficult man to start even in deep leagues at the beginning of the year, he may just be worth a flex spot against Oakland who will focus on 85.

Legedu Naanee-na-na-na-na, na-na-na-na, hey-hey-hey, Naanee - Legedu has a sweet name and sweet potential.  I certainly wouldn’t read too much into the fact that Naanee was the leading target getter last Sunday with four, or that he was the only Charger wide receiver with a red zone target, but I would feel comfortable with the fact that he made the most of those targets.  Jackson was bottled up by double teams all day, which allowed Naanee to catch three passes for 42 yards and a touchdown.  Naanee even stole a page out of former Boise State teammate Ian Johnson’s playbook when he “proposed” to a cheerleader on the sidelines after making his first regular season touchdown grab of his career.  While Floyd is still the number two guy, Naanee has been a consistent contributor to the Chargers’ offense (though to a much lesser degree).  If you are hurting badly, Naanee has matchup potential against a Denver pass defense that has been reeling as of late.  Over the last four weeks, Denver has given up the 8^th most fantasy points to opposing receivers with 24.3 per game and is giving up 1.7 pass touchdowns a game to receivers.

Deion Branch - yeah, I went there.  As you can probably tell from the aforementioned group of gentleman that I have already discussed, I am really focusing on sleepers and waiver wire guys this week.  Considering the trade deadline has passed in most leagues, I find it more practical to give you desperate owners in deep leagues some insight.  That being said, let’s talk about the 2^nd most targeted Seahawk receiver last Sunday.  Though he is obviously a shell of his former self, Branch had nine targets last Sunday and got two red zone looks (2^nd behind Housh who had three).  He snagged four balls for 50 yards and is averaging three receptions over the last four games.  Though I would not advise anyone to invest long term in Branch, he is facing a Minnesota pass defense that has been struggling without Winfield.  The Vikings rank 28^th in pass yardage allowed and have given up a dismal 14 passing touchdowns already this year.  Also, over the last four weeks, the Vikings have given up the 7^th most fantasy points to receivers (24.7 a game). Despite the pass rush and the loss of Julius Jones, I think it’s reasonable to start Seahawk receivers this week and if you’re incredibly desperate you could even start Branch.  I’m either a genius or an idiot.

Dennis Northcutt - was 2^nd to Calvin Johnson last Sunday with eight targets, catching four passes for 48 yards.  Stafford is playing well but I would beware of Northcutt as he is now the third receiver with Megatron now somewhat healthy.  However, Bryant Johnson or Northcutt could be a potential option this week against the dismal Browns who have given up the fourth most fantasy points per game to receivers of the last four weeks (25.7).

General Target Information From Week 10

League Leaders in Targets

1. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (18)

2. Desean Jackson (16)

2. Randy Moss (16)

4. Devin Hester (14)

4. Santonio Holmes (14)

6. Dwayne Bow(ped) (13)

6. Megatron (13)

6. Joshua Cribbs (13)

League Leaders in Red Zone Targets

1. Santonio Holmes (4)

1. Bernard Berrian (4)

1. Randy Moss (4)

4. Hines Ward (3)

4. Reggie Wayne (3)

4. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (3)

4. Carolina Smith (3)

8. Jeremy Maclin (2)

8. Pierre Garcon (2)

8. Desean Jackson (2)

(7 more with 2)

Players With Highest Percentage of Team Targets

1. Randy Moss (23%)

2. Santonio Holmes (22%)

3. Joshua Cribbs (21%)

4. DeSean Jackson (20.5%)

5. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (20%)

As I flipped back and forth between MNF and the World Series (and thought over my fantasy baseball and fantasy football seasons), I couldn’t help but compile a mental fantasy baseball vs. fantasy football monologue in my head. Most of it probably only made sense to me in that moment, but through it I realized that the same reasons that people give for fantasy football being easier than fantasy baseball are also the same reasons it can be harder. The player pool is smaller, the scoring is simpler, and it doesn’t require researching 3 levels of minor leagues to have an edge when the latest prospect gets called up. This makes things easier for you. But it also means it’s harder for you to gain an advantage by simply outworking your opponents. The “experts” are all analyzing the same players and dealing with the same random nature of football, meaning most of them will give you the same advice, and when someone does go out on a limb and get it right, it’s usually too late to take advantage of it (how many of you had already picked up Ryan Moats when Drew mentioned him weeks ago?).

The point is this: the information, to a certain degree, is limited. We’re all getting better at figuring out what information is pertinent and what isn’t, but at a certain point football can’t be broken down like baseball can. It’s not played in discrete chunks, player vs. player, that are easily represented by statistics. So the advantage to be had is in filtering out the noise and when you take risks, you take the best calculated risk the situation allows. Risk assessment. Fantasy baseball is like chess — fantasy football is like poker. You may be more skilled than your opponent and still lose. We want to provide the information that gives you the best understanding of the risks.

Let’s recap how the system works here: start with your basic ranking of players, and then consider -1 and +1 ratings to move the player to the bottom or top of their current tier. A -2 and +2 rating bumps them into the tier below or above their normal position. The team’s pass defense ranking (in passing yards allowed per game) is in parentheses.

1 PM games

Washington (2nd) @ Atlanta (31st)

The Redskins offense had a surprisingly effective pass attack against the Eagles in Week 7. Jason Campbell had a solid fantasy line (284 yards, 2 TD’s) and even managed to get the ball 6 times to Santana Moss. Campbell should still be considered a highly risky play even against a relatively poor secondary like Atlanta’s (of course, lots of secondaries look bad after a game against the Saints). He’s just as likely to get the hook at halftime as he is throw for 250+ yards. Of particular note is the loss of Chris Cooley. If you need a TE and Fred Davis wasn’t picked up because of the bye week, grab him now. Davis and Cooley combined for 10 catches, 99 yards, and a touchdown — most of it by Davis after Cooley went down. That total is a little optimistic, but Davis has the situation and talent to put up excellent numbers.

WAS: Campbell 0, Moss +1, Davis +1

SSDD. Things don’t get any easier for Matty Ice(cold) this week. The Washington defense is legit, particularly its secondary. The Redskins held Celek to 3 catches for 8 yards, so don’t expect a monster day from Tony Gonzalez, but he’s still a must play on most rosters. DeSean Jackson’s big plays against might give hope to Roddy White owners, but they get their big gains in different ways so I’m not sure White will be as successful. Jenkins continues to produce just enough to tease but not enough to warrant a pickup.

ATL: Ryan -2, White -1, Gonzalez -1

Green Bay (9th) @ Tampa Bay (15th)

The issue with Greg Jennings this year seemed to be pass protection (or lack thereof). With Rodgers constantly under pressure, the offense didn’t have the time necessary to set up downfield pass plays, instead relying on over the middle shots to Driver and the TE’s. Well, Rodgers was sacked 6 times by the Vikings defense, and he still managed to find Jennings 8 times for 88 yards and a score. Is Jennings back? I’m not sure he won’t turn in a few more stinkers, but he is definitely playable — the Packers are finding ways to get him the ball. If you’re looking for a long shot TE, check out Spencer Havner — he only caught 2 passes, but both were for touchdowns. Clearly, the red zone offense is set up for some TE targets, so take advantage. Tampa’s not even as good as their mid-pack ranking (and don’t rush the passer nearly as well as the Vikings), so start all your Packers with confidence.

GB: Rodgers +2, Jennings +2, Driver +2, Havner +2

Meh. The Bucs’ pass offense isn’t even bad in an exciting way, like the Raiders — they are boringly bad. The dullest quarterback controversy in the history of the NFL sucks almost all of the value out of this offense. Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow are talented receivers, but you are rolling the dice if you start them. Both could just as easily turn in 2 catch, 18 yard days as they could bust 100+ yards and score a couple times. Use only if you are in a bad, bad way and need all the high-risk you can fit on a roster.

TB: Joshes -2, Bryant -1, Winslow -1

Miami (12th) @ New England (5th)

I’m not sure the Patriots secondary is nearly so good as that number may indicate — they have had the good fortune of facing the Titans and Bucs offenses the previous 2 games. Of course, Miami’s pass offense might be closer to those 2 teams than they are to the units that had success like the Broncos. The Dolphins mustered just 112 yards passing last week against the Jets (and lost 60 in sack yardage). I don’t like young quarterbacks facing the Patriots (even Sanchize only threw for 163 yards and a single touchdown) — this is not the week to take a risk with Henne and the Dolphins. They just don’t throw enough to make Bess, Camarillo, Fasano, the newly promoted Hartline (goose-egg), or the newly demoted Ginn (goose egg in the passing game) worthwhile.

MIA: Henne -2, Bess -1, Camarillo -2, Fasano-2, Hartline -2, Ginn -2

This isn’t quite the creampuff matchup that the Patriots enjoyed against the Titans and Bucs, but the same principle stands — New England doesn’t have the RB depth to pound the ball, so expect 30+ passes from Brady. Welker will again be used to move the chains with occasional downfield shots to Moss. Aiken bears watching after catching a long TD in Week 7. Normally Ben Watson doesn’t get enough looks for my liking, but this is a nice matchup for him, and he often sneaks a red zone TD even when he’s not being targeted frequently.

NE: Brady +1, Welker +2, Moss +1, Watson +1, Aikin 0

Kansas City (28th) @ Jacksonville (26th)

Cassel was horrible against San Diego before the bye week, but if you’re stuck with waiver options at QB I think he’s playable here. Bowe salvaged his 11 yard day by recording a touchdown, while Bobby Wade racked up 66 yards, but Bowe’s the only one you want to be playing. If you’re stuck with Bowe on your roster, this is the week you play him — and if you can’t play him here, then go ahead and sell low on him, because the situation just isn’t going to get a lot better.

KC: Cassel +1, Bowe +2, Wade +1

What a mess. After Garrard threw 2 picks and barely completed 50% of his passes (meanwhile, MJD averaged 22 yards a carry but was only given the ball 8 times) against the Titans, the scuttlebutt is that Garrard’s decision-making is under question (oh really?) and that he may be “handcuffed” to avoid costly mistakes (you don’t say!). Garrard was already an up-and-down fantasy QB, so this may not change his value that much, but it could have devastating consequences for Mike Sims-Walker and Torry Holt. For now, cross your fingers and hope that Garrard regains the coaching staff’s trust in a tasty matchup against the Chiefs, but be prepared to sell just a little low on Sims-Walker and Holt if it’s apparent they aren’t getting the downfield targets.

JAC: Garrard -1, Sims-Walker -1, Holt -1, Thomas -1, Lewis 0

Houston (14th) @ Indianapolis (7th)

If I told you that a talented Houston player would rank at the top of his fantasy position for 8 weeks before being lost to injury, you’d have guessed Matt Schaub, right? Oh wait…I guess you could also guess Andre Johnson. Maybe Houston needs a better sports medicine department. Anyway, Owen Daniels is lost for the year, and that means potentially big value changes for 2 players. Kevin Walter goes from being the 3rd wheel to Andre Johnson’s sidekick, and Joel Dreessen gets the opportunity to fill in for Daniels. For now, assume most of that extra value goes to Walter, but keep an eye on Dreessen — a lot of the Texans’ playbook revolved around Daniels so I think he’ll get some looks. For now, Schaub’s value dips just a little, and Andre Johnson’s holds steady. Oh yeah. They’re playing Indy, who is really, really, really good at suppressing long pass plays. Did I mention Kevin Walter’s value is going up?

HOU: Schaub -1, Johnson -1, Walter +1, Jones -1, Dreessen +1, Daniels (drop)

Following our quiz motif for this game, if I told you a Colt passer had a perfect QB rating in last week’s game, would you guess…Manning? Sorgi? Whoever is the 3rd string QB? Nope, it’s Joseph Addai! The Colts had a tough time scoring against the 49ers, but that didn’t stop Manning from racking up 347 yards. Pray to the fantasy football gods that a RB doesn’t steal a passing touchdown this week. In other news, Reggie Wayne is the first WR to be targeted 20 times in a game. Until Anthony Gonzalez returns in full health, Wayne is the big play guy and the clutch 3rd-down guy, all wrapped into one. With Owen Daniels down for the count, Dallas Clark is now clearly the best fantasy TE in the game. Gonzalez isn’t expected back this week, so Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon are playable as well.

IND: Manning 0, Wayne +1, Clark 0, Collie 0, Garcon 0

Baltimore (19th) @ Cincinnati (30th)

The difference between fantasy and real football can be seen in Flacco’s last game against Denver. 175 yards and a single touchdown is barely acceptable in fantasy; in real life, he completed 80% of his passes, didn’t turn it over, and got what yardage was available from a tough Broncos D. That doesn’t help you if you started him, but it’s a good sign — even against tough opponents, he’s not likely to implode. Fortunately, that’s not a concern this week. Now that the Bengals are the 3rd worst team in passing yardage against, can we stop talking about their surprising defense? Expect Mason to top the receiving yardage again; neither Mark Clayton nor Kelley Washington are productive enough to consider playing. Heap remains a low-risk, low-reward option.

BAL: Flacco +2, Mason +2, Clayton +1, Washington +1, Heap +1

The question here is this: does one look at Baltimore’s ranking and year-to-date statistics, or does one look at the last game against a previously successful Denver offense? The Ravens used more blitzes and defensive shifts to pressure Orton instead of letting the front four go at it and hoping the secondary holds up. The smart play here is to assume that the Ravens aren’t quite the easy mark they were early in the year, but Palmer and Ochocinco are too talented to downgrade much. Unfortunately, after some nice early games, Andre Caldwell seems to have fallen back to the pack — Caldwell, Coles, and Henry are converging in value, making none of them more than spot WR3 starts.

CIN: Palmer 0, Ochocinco 0, Caldwell -1, Coles 0, Henry 0

Arizona (20th) @ Chicago (12th)

Are the Bears the team that held the Browns to 74 yards passing or the team that gave up 5 TD’s to Carson Palmer? Probably somewhere in the middle, but I wouldn’t be worried about starting your Cardinals in this game. Anquan Boldin aggravated his sprained ankle last week; even if he plays, I’d upgrade Steve Breaston just because he’s likely to be involved more than usual. If Boldin does play, keep him in your lineup — he can be productive even when hobbled.

ARI: Warner +1, Fitzgerald +1, Boldin -1, Breaston +1

Starting to worry about Jay Cutler as your starting QB? You should be (this applies to Bears fans and Cutler owners alike). The Browns are not a good pass defense, and Cutler managed just 225 yards with no TD’s and a pick against them. After leaving the Detroit game with an injury, Hester has logged 3 straight games of 80+ yards — but he also missed Wednesday’s practice with an ankle injury. If Hester can’t play, upgrade Knox. Bennett seems to have been pushed to WR3 status. At this point, accept the fact that Olsen is a steady but unexciting TE.

CHI: Cutler -1, Hester 0, Knox 0/+1, Bennett 0, Olsen 0

4 PM games

Detroit (27th) @ Seattle (18th)

Stafford couldn’t put together a good game against St. Louis. You don’t want to play him here. For the sake of argument, if Calvin Johnson plays, Stafford gets a little upgrade, but it’s not enough to start him. CJ looked good in Wednesday’s practice but remains a game-time decision. Play him if he starts, but not over other top-tier WR’s. Pettigrew has yet to put together a second game so ignore him for now. Northcutt led in looks last week but Bryant Johnson made the plays. Don’t start either.

DET: Stafford -1, Calvin Johnson 0, Pettigrew -1, Northcutt -1, Bryant Johnson 0

I really thought that Dallas would put more pressure on Hasselbeck, but the Seahawks put together a nice game against the Cowboys. Clearly, this is a much better matchup and Hasselbeck, Burleson, Houshmandzadeh, and Carlson are all playable here. If you are considering starting Hasselbeck over a top-tier starter with a tougher matchup, remember that everything you’re reading about Hasselbeck is the same stuff people said about Bulger last week. It’s not a perfect parallel, since Hasselbeck has more experienced and talented receivers, but take it as fair warning. Burleson is returning punts which is a nice boost for return yardage leagues.

SEA: Hasselbeck +2, Burleson +2, Houshmandzadeh +1, Carlson +1

Carolina (1st) @ New Orleans (17th)

If the Panthers stick to their new gameplan, they’ll probably win more, but it’s going to cut into Delhomme’s production (and by extension, Steve Smith’s production). Delhomme isn’t playable until we see whether he’ll be allowed to throw the ball more than 15-20 times a game. Depending on your roster, you might be stuck playing Smith, but you’ve got to cross your fingers and hope he connects on a deep throw for a TD. Not a great situation, not a great matchup. Avoid it if you can.

CAR: Delhomme -2, Smith -1

So are you going to be the guy that didn’t learn his lesson when he benched Drew Brees against the (formerly) #1 Giants pass defense? Yes, the Panthers picked off Warner 5 times. Doesn’t matter. Brees may not have his best game of the year, but at this point it’s a fool’s wager to bet against him. Devery Henderson is separating himself from the pack as the WR2, and Colston and Shockey are must starts. Start downgrading Moore and Meachem — most weeks the ball is spread around too much for either to put together a big number.

NO: Brees 0, Colston 0, Shockey +1, Henderson +1, Moore -1, Meachem -1

Tennessee (32nd) @ San Francisco (29th)

As expected, the QB switch to Vince Young proved to be detrimental to the Titans’ WR group. Nate Washington salvaged his day with a TD, but nobody had more than 41 yards total. For the time being, expect Gage, Washington, and Britt to be nearly unplayable in all formats. Scaife might enjoy an upgrade if Young checks down more often that Collins.

TEN: Young 0, Gage -1, Washington -1, Britt -1, Scaife 0

I have to admit — I’m very interested to see what Alex Smith does this week. He managed just under 200 yards and a TD against a tough Indy secondary; it’s not hard to imagine he could easily top 200 yards with a couple TD’s this week. He’s got athletic weapons in Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree and an experienced outlet in Isaac Bruce, and his decision-making looks much, much better than his first go-round as a starter. Definitely worth stashing in 2 QB leagues. Josh Morgan seems to have gotten the worst of the Crabtree promotion, so don’t rely on him for anything right now. Last week’s game didn’t convince me that the Titans are anything but a bad pass defense, so Smith, Crabtree, and Davis all get the bad-defense upgrade.

SF: Smith +1, Crabtree +1, Davis +1, Bruce 0, Morgan -1

San Diego (6th) @ New York Giants (3rd)

Since the Saints opened the floodgates, nobody seems to be scared of the Giants’ pass defense at all. Given San Diego’s general inability to run the ball (and the strength of the Giants D-line), I expect Rivers to pass a lot in this game, using dumpoffs to Tomlinson and Gates to move the chains. Malcolm Floyd takes over the WR2 position from now-released Chris Chambers and gets an automatic +1 for the promotion, but we won’t have real gauge on his production level for a couples games. For now, assume he’ll get about the same number of looks as Chambers but converts a higher percentage of them (ideally, somewhere north of 50%).

SD: Rivers 0, Vincent Jackson 0, Gates +1, Floyd +1

While I don’t expect a Delhomme-style handcuffing, it would make sense for the Giants to pound the ball with Jacobs and Bradshaw here. Eli’s been making mistakes, the WR core is a little dinged up, and San Diego is about as bad a stopping the run as it is shutting down the passing game. Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks will have some trouble with the athletic SD corners, and while Manningham returned to practice on Wednesday, he’s been losing time to Nicks anyway. Kevin Boss had an excellent game last week, but injured his ankle — if he starts, he’s playable, but have a backup plan ready.

NYG: Manning -1, Smith -1, Nicks -1, Manningham -2, Boss -1

8 PM game

Dallas (22nd) @ Philadelphia (10th)

This is a tough matchup for Dallas — Romo, Austin, and Witten are too good to bench, but the Eagles blitz-happy attack induces mistakes and this could be difficult for a risk-taking QB like Romo. Still, there should be yards available in the passing game so don’t downgrade Romo too much other than expecting 1 or 2 INT’s. Roy Williams has been complaining publicly about his role and chemistry with Romo; there’s been no word concerning team discipline, but I’d downgrade him a bit anyway. Crayton is marginal except in return-yardage leagues. Witten owners should hope he’s over his case of the drops, because Kevin Boss demonstrated there’s room in the Philly defense for a TE to take advantage.

DAL: Romo -1, Austin 0, Williams -2, Crayton -1/0, Witten 0

The Cowboy’s pass defense is improving but Seattle proved they can still be thrown on. Celek re-established his offensive role last week, and DeSean Jackson is a WR1 whether it’s a return yardage league or not. Jeremy Maclin is getting consistent looks and I like him to tally 4-6 catches this week. There’s not much value beyond that — Avant shows up every couple of weeks, but it’s not enough to rely on.

PHI: McNabb +1, Jackson +2, Maclin +1, Celek 0

Monday game

Pittsburgh (16th) @ Denver (8th)

Denver’s defense wasn’t as bad as the points total looked last week — they still held Flacco to 175 yards and a touchdown. That line happens to be identical to the line Roethlisberger put up against Minnesota in Week 7. With FWP returning to action, we may be seeing the Steelers shifting the offensive load off of Roethlisberger. He still may be successful, but that success may not translate into fantasy numbers. With that in mind (and Denver’s secondary), I think a downgrade is in order for most of the Steelers. I have a feeling Ward may find some room underneath the secondary so he’s exempt. I don’t like Wallace’s chances of busting a long one this week.

PIT: Roethlisberger -1, Holmes -1, Ward 0, Miller -1, Wallace -1

I think Orton may be forced to throw frequently as I don’t see Denver having much success running the ball on Pittsburgh. I’m not sure if that’s good or bad — lots of attempts against a good defense generally produce turnovers. Orton’s smart enough to avoid bad interceptions, but it won’t be surprising if Polamalu catches one. Royal’s been horrible at converting the targets he’s getting into catches, but it’s worth noting he got as many looks as Marshall did last week, so they are trying to get him involved in the offense. After a nice game in Week 6, Scheffler reverted back to almost worthless status (and was outgained by Daniel Graham) — dump him and roll the dice with someone else.

DEN: Orton -1, Marshall 0, Royal -1, Scheffler -1