Bet the Farm is Razzball’s weekly wagering column. Josh Carey and Zorboss compete against your picks in the comments. The rules?
– You start off with $1,000 (and can start playing along in the comments any time you want – even now)
– Every bet must be an increment of $10 up to your full bankroll ($1,000 or maybe more)
– You can bet on the over/under or spread for any NFL game (Yahoo Sports’ Odds page is a good place to pick your lines)
– Win, add $9 to your total for every $10 bet (you have to beat the rake). Lose, subtract $10. Push, keep it the same.
– Beat us over the entire season and win our admiration (Note: our admiration has a cash value of $0).
Josh Carey’s Picks
Bankroll: $1,187 (last week: +$13)
Record: 14-6-1 (last week: 3-2)
Locks: 3-2-1 (last week: 1-1)
$20 Baltimore -3.5 vs. Dallas: Unlike my colleague down below, I am less confident in this week than any since the opening of the season. So you’ll notice I don’t have a lock of a week and my wagers are all pretty modest. After all, my thing is home underdogs, and there are just two of those. So I’m more terrified of this week than a deer in the headlights. A little blind and hypnotized. I’m going to take the home team to cover based on what I see as the general ineptitude of the Dallas offense. What do Tony Romo, Demarco Murray, Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten all have in common? They have underachieved significantly this year. Since I think the Ravens offense is a bit better than their stats, I’ll take them to cover.
$20 Indianapolis +3.5 at New York Jets: If I were going to make a lock of the week, this would probably be it. I think Vegas hasn’t quite caught up yet to how bad the Jets sans-Revis are, or how quickly Andrew Luck and company are improving. With the Jets among the least formidable rushing defenses this year (I know, more confusing than Primer), the lack of Donald Brown shouldn’t really be a concern. And the Jets are really, really Limburger bad right now.
$20 San Diego -1 vs. Denver: I got burned with the Chargers last week, so I can only hope Norv Turner has learned his lesson this week and will finally run Ryan Matthews into the ground when he gets a late lead. Then again, Turner’s coaching is about as effective as the rhythm method of birth control. Still, Peyton Manning seems like he needs to show a bit more improvement to be back to the QB he was before. So this line is probably inflated towards Denver and I’ll roll with the home team.
Total wagered: $60.
Bankroll: $1154 (last week: +$104)
Record: 11-6 (last week 3-1)
Locks: 4-1 (last week 1-0)
$50 Miami -4 (Lock) vs. St. Louis: Let’s look at the Rams record this year: at home 3-0 and on the road 0-2. Four of the five games have been played in a dome. They lost their best passing attack option in trusted Amendola; this will cause Bradford to take more risks and trust those he doesn’t trust. The Dolphins have quietly put together a good month of football. They could easily be 4-1 if it wasn’t for a few brain cramps late in games. A decent home team vs. a historically abysmal road team and this bet is an easy one to make. Dolphins 23 Rams 13
$50 New England -3.5 at Seattle: What do you call a replacement official after the lockout ended? Sleepless in Seattle. Get it. They made their new home Seattle, sleeping there night in and night out; only they can’t sleep because every other team in America is sending them angry letters and hate mail. I should be a comedian, right? The Seahawks have used up years of good luck and hail marys. Give me the far superior team over the team with a replacement quarterback at the helm. A replacement ref walks into a bar. But he can’t walk into a bar because he lowered the bar so low that he can only trip over it… (crickets). I shouldn’t be a comedian. Patriots 31 Seahawks 17.
$20 Dallas +3.5 at Baltimore: The big bad Ravens, manhandling opponents on defense and running the ball on offense. What was that? The Ravens are 26th in team defense. Oh, well, they must have played some powerful offenses. What did you say? They played quarterbacks Cassel and Weeden the last two weeks. Interesting. Say what? The Ravens rushing attack is 13th in the league. Intriguing. Come again? The Cowboys are currently ranked first in team defense. So what you are saying is I should take the points with a well rested Dallas team? Okay, I will mystery person. Cowboys 23 Ravens 20.
$20 New York Giants +6.5 at San Francisco: So the 49ers beat the snot out of the Jets and Bills over the last two weeks. They beat a poor Lions team and an overrated Packers team for their other wins. Their only loss came to an improved and dangerous Vikings team on the road. Still, not an impressive resume in 2012. In comes the defending champion Giants, who have been up and down to start the season due to injuries. They are getting healthier every week and now come into this game as underdogs for the first time this season. Getting six and a half points with a talented squad like New York, and I would make this bet most days of the week. Well, only on Thursdays, Sundays, and Mondays… so a minority of the days in a week.
Am I allowed to bet on the New Orleans Saints practice squad totals during their bye week? I overly miss them.
Total Wagered: $140
So what are your picks this week?