If Ronnie Brown hadn’t been injured in ’07 we  could easily be talking about him with the likes of Adrian Peterson, MJD and Michael Turner, but he did and we have to read the tea leaves or if we are trying to see how much time he’ll split with Ricky Williams, the cannabis leaves. He’s a bust, he’s a sleeper, he’ll get more carries, he’ll get less carries, he can’t hold up with a full workload, there are a lot of projections for Brown, but the facts are, he’s over a year removed from his acl injury, he’s a powerful runner, he’s fast, he can catch the ball out of the backfield, he has an accurate ball control QB, and he is in a contract year (unless he gets reupped during camp).

The numbers for running backs always seem to increase the second season back from major injuries.  Of course there are many factors for this and I am only the six-shooting, drunk kind of doctor, but hesitation seems to be a big problem for players just off major surgery.  Tom Brady may feel some of that this year, but he also isn’t pounding into lineman and linebackers every play.  With a season to get comfortable and another offseason to heal and condition, Brown should be poised for a good year.

In 2007, in just 7 games, Brown had 119 rushing attempts for 602 yards and 4 TD’s and 39 receptions for 389 yards and 1 TD. That’s 2265 projected total yards on a bad Dolphins team.  Ricky Williams seems more concerned with giving his coaches massages and he is getting older by the day (unlike the rest us!). Reports are that Brown has regained all his speed and is in great condition (I know, could be bull), but who else are you going to draft with 2,000 total yard upside and an ADP of  28? I’ve been grabbing him toward the end of the 2nd round and beginning of the 3rd.  When you look at the running backs going just before him it’s hard to find much stability.  You can hear Brian Westbrook’s knee grinding bone on bone.  Brandon Jacobs has the agility of a Mack truck so he doesn’t avoid contact all that often and because he is 8’6” 337 lbs. he has to be tackled at the knees to be brought down, a fairly vulnerable spot.  Clinton Portis is so old he gets injured just putting on those George Clinton glasses.

Brown will always be an injury risk after his ACL surgery, but his upside and draft position make him a fine canidate for a breakout fantasy player this year.  We’re projecting: rushing: 1250 yds/9 tds, receiving: 40 rec/375 yds/2 tds.

  1. Doc

    Doc says:

    Looking for a new league organizer for RCL. Throw your hat into the ring!!

  2. ep says:

    Somewhat Ronnie Brown related…

    Will pick soon (1.02) in a 12-team competitive dynasty league draft.
    I have Big Ben, MJD, McFadden, Andre Johnson, Roddy White.

    Who should I pick?
    Marion Barber
    Chris Wells
    Knowshon Moreno
    Ronnie Brown
    Kevin Smith
    Jonathan Stewart
    Joseph Addai
    Donald Brown
    Ryan Grant

    Outside RB options:
    Tony Romo
    Greg Jennings

    Leaning toward Barber or Brown.
    Trying to trade the pick, but doubt I’ll get any legit offers.

  3. Doc

    Doc says:

    Nice team with MJD, AJ and White!

    I would go with Brown over Barber, but long term Moreno is tempting since you already have MJD anchoring your team. But really this year Moreno should be around a 1,000 total yards to Brown’s 1,500.

    What other QB options do you think you’ll have? It would be nice to upgrade Big Ben.

  4. ep says:

    Thanks for the compliment, Doc.

    Yeah, I was really looking at Romo, but I can’t pick a QB in the first round over one of those talented backs, especially because we have W/T and W/R flex spots to fill.

    Thinking about snagging Palmer or Hasselbeck with my third pick. Warner if he falls. Not really an upgrade, but a fill-in.
    Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers, McNabb, Rivers, Ryan, Cassell were all kept.

    My only concern with Moreno is that the logjam of RBs in Denver is as muddy as the one in Dallas, including a couple young guys (Torain, Hillis) to steal carries. And then I have a McFadden and a Moreno. That could be meteorically good or awful. There are other backs, but I’d rather not be stuck with two “projects,” even though I expect McFadden to be awesome.

  5. Doc

    Doc says:

    @ep: Completely agree. I think Moreno will take over eventually, but could take a while. Brown could still have 2-3 great years in him. I wouldn’t take Romo in the first either. See where you think Schaub or Garrard will fall as well.

  6. ep says:

    I’m pretty high on Garrard this year, too.
    No idea why I didn’t include him in that list.

    Don’t think I’ve said it before in a couple comments I’ve left, but this is a great site.
    Thanks for the analysis and advice.

  7. Doc

    Doc says:

    @ep: Thanks and you’re welcome.

  8. nick m. says:

    I’m picking 14th out of 16 teams in a one player keeper PPR league. I’m keeping MJD in the “first round” and am trying to rank a few players out of a group I think I’ll see in the 2nd (30th pick overall). Could you rank these players – R. Bush, W. Welker, R. Brown, M. Barber, D. Bowe, K. Smith, M. Colston, and B. Marshall? Thanks.

  9. Doc

    Doc says:

    @nick m.: R. Brown, M. Colston, M. Barber, K. Smith, B. Marshall, D. Bowe, W. Welker, R. Bush

  10. Joe says:

    Just a quick keeper question. I am in a 2 keeper league and have settled on keeping Andre Johnson but I’m in a quandry about my other keeper. We start 2 QB’s, 2 RB’s, 3 WR’s, flex (WR/RB), and TE. Help me choose from Portis, Westbrook, M. Barber, Kevin Smith or Kurt Warner. I’m leaning toward Warner b/c of the 2 QB’s and there will be at least 11 QB’s off the board before I draft at #8 of a 10 team keeper. I appreciate any insight.

  11. Doc

    Doc says:

    @Joe: I think a lot depends on what QB’s will be available. It will be tough taking Warner over any of those RB’s, but if the dropoff is way too far you may have to do it. I’ve got those RB’s ranked Westbrook, Portis, Barber, Smith, but I’m not high on any of them.

  12. Mitch says:

    I am in a 4 team keeper league.

    My first 3 keepers are easy with fitz, roddy white, ronnie brown…
    I can’t decide on the 4th one, its between Lynch and Warner. I pick 7th in a 10 team league. So there will be QBs and RBs to chose from so really it comes down to which of warner/lynch is better value to keep.

    I have been on the fence of who to keep for basically all summer so any insight would be great. Thanks

  13. Doc

    Doc says:

    Lynch is the better long term hold.

  14. Jonathan says:

    I have Ronnie Brown in a Yahoo Standard League, and I need to know if I should trade him and Antonio Bryant for Greg Jennings and Felix Jones.

  15. Jonathan says:

    My team is Kurt Warner, Clinton Portis, Ronnie Brown, Andre Johnson, Antonio Bryant, Eddie Royal, Jeremy Shockey, Rob Bironas, Steelers D, Willie Parker, Knowshon Moreno, Kyle Orton, Percy Harvin, Michael Jenkins and Fred Taylor. I also want to know if I should have Shockey as my starting TE or pick up John Carlson.

  16. Doc

    Doc says:

    @Jonathan: I don’t like the trade for you. Portis and Brown are a good pair, but if you made the trade you would have a ton of risk at the RB slot with Jones, Parker, Moreno and Taylor.

    I like Carlson over Shockey.

  17. Jonathan says:

    What do you think about my WRs?

  18. Doc

    Doc says:

    @Jonathan: I can see why you want Jennings, but it’s just too much to give up. AJ is my 2nd ranked WR so he is elite. I like Royal as your #2 since Bryant should see some regression this year. Royal and Bryant will suffice unless you can make a trade, but I don’t think it’s a must right now.

  19. Matt says:

    Hi. I’m in a 10 person standard league on yahoo. We have 1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE/WR/RB, 1 D, 1 K for starters. Now this is my first time playing fantasy football and I was wondering what you think about the flex TE/WR/RB spot. Unless I’m able to get witten, gates, clark, or gonzalez I haven’t been mock drafting a TE too much. Do you think it’d be better not to get one all together if I can get a decent bench player to fill the spot or should I go for the next best TE’s with olson, cooley, or owens if they’re still available? Long question, I know, but very unsure about what to do here. Thanks so much!

  20. Doc

    Doc says:

    @Matt: You need to fill those first 6 positions and then see where you are. If for some reason others in the league are punting TE’s and a TE is the best player on the board go for it. There’s a good chance people won’t be able to skip big names like Gates, Witten, etc.. so a RB or WR will probably be your best option at that point. Hate to give you such a vague answer, but I think it really depends on who the best available is since you can fill that slot with 3 positions.

  21. steve says:

    im in a 12 team 0.75 ppr league… my question is how crazy would it be to take L fitz/A johson 3rd overall instead of matt forte with the options of taking a reggie bush later down the line???

  22. Doc

    Doc says:

    @steve: I’m not a fan of it. Forte will be too good and is much more stable than Bush. I’d just worry too much about Bush’s health.

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