I have been following a simple metric this season for running backs: weighted opportunities (WO) per game. This summer I found that WO/g correlated strongly with fantasy points (FP) per game with an R2 of 0.88 based off 2018 numbers. Granted, this was a small sample size of only 1 year but it’s all the data I had.

In a nutshell, the idea is that players should have a FP/WO ratio of about 1, and if they are above that they are either very efficient or lucky (probably via TDs). If they are below that number, the inverse is assumed. In that piece I identified 4 backs that looked like strong buys this offseason, so let’s see if FP/WO helped.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Learn more about our 2020 Fantasy Football Subscriptions!

The best blend of accurate and bold weekly projections for QB/RB/WR/TE + PK + Defensive Teams and IDP as well as a kick-ass DFS lineup optimizer and projections for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!.

I don't have enough spam, give me the Razzball email newsletter!