B_Don

2020 NFL Draft Preview: Jalen Reagor

March 21, 2020 | 2020 NFL Draft Preview, Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues |

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The draft won’t take place in Vegas, and there are conflicting reports out there about whether it will be suspended or not. Regardless, now is as good a time as any to try and get some more profiles out. 

Jalen Reagor – Texas Christian University – 5’11” 206 lbs. – 1/1/99 (21 years old)

Inconsistent quarterback play and the emergence of Taye Barber cut into his workload in his junior season, but Reagor brings an impressive open field ability and glimpses of greatness.

  • Good long speed and strong initial burst can put corners in a chasing position early. 
  • Got work on sweeps and screens to get the ball in his hands and let him work.
  • Ability to take well defended screens and burst outside for 10+ yards and a first down. 
  • Worked on kick off and punt returns. Averaged 20.8 yards per punt return his junior year and the touchdown you see below. 
    • Please, blog, may I have some more?

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al_FF_red

Top 7 Pre-Draft Rookie TE Rankings 2020

March 20, 2020 | 2020 NFL Draft Preview, Dynasty Strategy, Dynasty Targets |

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The tight end position is similar to QB in fantasy, in the sense that only an elite player really turns tides for your team. Most TE production is replaceable week in and week out. In 2019 the top 7 tight ends ranged between 16.6 and 13.6 in PPR points per game before a 1.3PPG gap to TE 8. The elite tier was even more dramatic in 2018 when the top 2 TEs averaged 3 PPG more than TE3.

Because of this, in most leagues the TE position is an afterthought on draft day. In dynasty rookie drafts it is difficult to know how to value a TE because 1) they take a while to develop for fantasy and 2) they are so often replaceable compared to other positions. If you are going to take a rookie TE, it better be in an attempt to land a whale.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Donkey Teeth

Hopkins Traded for Three Ounces of Purell

March 18, 2020 | Fantasy Football Daily Notes | 2 Comments

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As I crawled through the desert wearing my backpack filled to the brim with toilet paper and various lotions, dying of sports thirst, a small rain drop landed squarely on my nose. The NFL players narrowly approved a new collective bargaining agreement Saturday night, lengthening the season by one game and expanding the playoffs to 14 teams; the rain drop for which I’d been longing. Then on Monday, the flood gates opened with a downpour of high profile free agent signings, trades and franchise taggings on the first day of legal tampering. 

Lightning struck when then Texans inexplicably handed DeAndre Hopkins and a 2021 4th rounder over to the Cardinals in exchange for David Johnson, a 2nd round draft pick and a 2020 4th rounder. The amount of hand sanitizer included in the deal was not disclosed, but my sources tell me at least three ounces of Purell headed back to Houston. The echo chamber seems to believe this move will have a decidedly negative affect on Nuk’s fantasy value, but I’m rose-colored in my year two outlook for the Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray show. If he’s a mid to late 2nd round fantasy pick this year, I’ll dhop all over him.

Later the thunder rumbled as Stefon Diggs was dealt with a 2020 7th rounder to the Bills in exchange for pick #22, their 2020 5th, 2020 6th and 2021 4th rounder. I’ve seen many folks say this was a terrible deal for the Bills, but if you toss the 26 year old Diggs into this draft class he’d go top 10, right? And he’s signed to a reasonably team friendly deal thru 2023. Change of scenery may be just what Diggs needed. I’ll be buying again in 2020 and bumping Josh Allen up my board as well. Anyway, here’s what else I saw for 2020 fantasy football during this already crazy coronavirus-filled NFL offseason:  

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MB

Houston: Has Nothing But Problems

March 17, 2020 | Fantasy Football Daily Notes |

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Bill O’Brien is a man with too many responsibilities for a billion dollar organization. Bill O’Brien comes from the Bill Belichick coaching tree, but he’s not as savvy. Luckily for O’Brien, the dominoes have fell in his favor in regards to appearing in the postseason. The Texans have made the playoffs in 4 out of the last 5 seasons including two wins. 

The Texan’s 2019 playoff appearance can be attributed to a nice home win against a depleted Patriots roster, and a shocker on the road against the Chiefs, but outside of that it seemed like they skated by. If Andrew Luck hadn’t retired, the playoff picture probably would have looked a lot different. Lost in the fact that the Chiefs made a historic comeback in the divisional round against the Texans is the fact that Bill O’Brien and the Texans were embarrassingly unprepared to maintain a lead after already winning at Arrowhead that season. Pat Mahomes very well could end up as the best quarterback of our generation, but the Texans blew it with questionable play calling being at the forefront.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Donkey Teeth

Top 40 Dynasty Wide Receivers for 2020 Fantasy Football

March 15, 2020 | Fantasy Football Dynasty League Rankings, Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues |

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Two weeks ago I detailed my elaborate self-quarantine plans in the top 40 dynasty running backs post. Unfortunately, we’ve finally reached the tipping point here in the United States. Now I’m in day 3 of self-quarantine, doing my part to help “flatten the curve” and protect our healthcare system. But don’t even think about asking for any of my lotion stockpile, you should’ve taken heed to my warning two weeks back. I have countless hours of dynasty rosterbation ahead. On a related note, can someone please explain why people are buying up all the toilet paper, yet baby wipes are still fully stocked? Are people unfamiliar with the miracle of baby wipes? Anyway, while you’re bored in isolation, take a look at all of our dynasty and rookie rankings for 2020 fantasy football. I went over the top 20 dynasty wide receivers last week, now on to the top 40 dynasty wide receivers for 2020 fantasy football:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
al_FF_red

Rookie Quarterback Rankings for 2020 Fantasy Football: Pre-Draft

March 13, 2020 | Fantasy Football Dynasty League Rankings, Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues |

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The quarterback landscape for fantasy is a strange one as unlike other positions a quality QB can stay atop the rankings for over a decade with minimal fluctuation. Additionally, only the very elite  QBs really matter for our game, as we know that after a select few passers, replaceability is very high. So, when looking at rookie QBs, redraft league players can pretty much forget the class (unless it’s Kyler Murray *swoon*) and even dynasty league managers with 1QB don’t need to stick their neck out for a rookie. 

However, moving into deep dynasty or leagues where it is required (2QB) or beneficial (superflex) to start multiple QBs, things get interesting. These types of leagues are often starved for starting QBs and the only way to obtain one is a difficult trade or drafting an incoming rookie. For managers in these types of leagues, let’s get to prospecting! 

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Donkey Teeth

Too Many Touches? Derrick Henry Outlook

March 10, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Football | 2 Comments

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I’m taking a break from my 2020 dynasty rankings to bring you an article about large sweaty men pounding on other equally sweaty men. If you found this page by Googling, “pounding sweaty men,” then welcome, you’re in the right place!

Running back is the fantasy position which takes the greatest wear on the body. But is the total number of carries a running back receives in any given season predictive of their production in the following season?

This is the question I set out to answer, specifically in regards to The Predator, Derrick Henry. In 2019 the big man rumbled for 1,540 yards and 16 touchdowns on 303 rushing attempts plus 18 catches for 206 yards and 2 touchdowns—posting the 2nd most running back fantasy points in standard scoring and 5th most fantasy points in PPR scoring. Henry also tacked on 83 playoff carries for 446 yards and 2 more touchdowns. This adds up to 386 carries on the season, the 3rd most of any running back in the past 10 seasons. Let’s take a look at the follow-up performances of all other high-volume backs over the past 10 years: 

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MB

Fantasy Football Season Review: Tight Ends

March 9, 2020 | Fantasy Football Analysis, Fantasy Football Data |

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Every season in the NFL is full of evolution. You’ve heard a million times that the NFL is a copy cat league and teams lower in the standings try to emulate whatever the stand out teams did in the previous season. No matter what the hot trend is, the tight end position will not die in fantasy football. Each season the position lacks depth which makes hitting your pick in the draft pretty important. 

That doesn’t necessarily mean you have to spend an early draft pick on a tight end though. Through spending some time and doing the proper research you can find the later round guys that have a good chance of popping. If you read Razzball in your 2019 prep, you probably ended up with Darren Waller on a lot of your fantasy teams. Let’s take a look at a few categories to break down the tight end position from the 2019 season as we look ahead to 2020. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?
al_FF_red

Top 30 Rookie Wide Receivers – Post Combine

March 8, 2020 | Fantasy Football Dynasty League Rankings, Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues |

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The back end of my WR rankings for 2020 include some crushes that I hoped would have generated some buzz at the combine but didn’t, plus one athletic freak that caught everyone’s eye but I still have doubts about. 

In the pre-combine top 30 rookie wide receiver rankings I laid out the key factors I was looking for and why I ranked the players where I did. As a follow up I am now adjusting based on new information such as body mass index (BMI), athletic testing and overall post-combine buzz coming out of Indianapolis. 

There was a lot of movement within the WR rankings because so many players are very close and small details can cause big ripples. I did penalize the players who did not run at the combine because I think in a class so tight, that will matter on draft day, impacting projected draft round.  

A Word About BMI

Numberfire ran a nice study in 2015 and their conclusion was “If we’re talking absolute, elite production, your best bet is more than likely a tall wide receiver, and a heavy one, too.” The correlation was fairly weak, but in general bigger WRs had more success. The study found that the average BMI for WRs that scored 10+ touchdowns was 27.09 and the average BMI declined in groups with less touchdowns. While that was from 2015, this past season saw 10 of the top 12 WR finishers in points per game had a BMI of >26.5 and 7 of them had a BMI >27.

Only DJ Chark (24.1) came in under 26.  I don’t think it’s linear, as in a 28 BMI is better than a 26.5, but I do think a threshold is probably needed. Most WRs at the combine hit at least 26 because that’s just the typical pool of NFL players. This year is odd because the top 2 consensus WRs did not register a 26, but draft capital cures a lot of ills. The lesser known players that didn’t get to 26 got dinged for me because their draft slot was already tenuous. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Donkey Teeth

Top 20 Dynasty Wide Receivers for 2020 Fantasy Football

March 7, 2020 | Fantasy Football Dynasty League Rankings | 2 Comments

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Socrates once said, “True knowledge exists in knowing you know nothing.” But if I know that I know nothing then isn’t that knowing something? What then? I’m already confused! What we can all agree on, based on my #9 ranking of Kerryon Johnson in my top 20 dynasty running backs, is that I’m a huge idiot AND I know nothing. Unless of course Kerryon happens to be a 22 year old fantasy RB1 this season. Then I’m just a regular size idiot because Juju Smith-Schuster has been omitted from my top 20 dynasty wide receivers. If somehow you resisted the urge to throw your computer against the wall in outrage at this news, then use that computer to take a look at the rest of our dynasty and rookie rankings for 2020 fantasy football. Anyway, here’s my top 20 wide receivers for 2020 PPR dynasty football: 

Please, blog, may I have some more?
B_Don

2020 NFL Draft Preview: Cam Akers

March 6, 2020 | 2020 NFL Draft Preview, Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues |

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Cam Akers – Florida St. – 5’10” 217 lbs. – 6/22/99 (20 years old)

Fair warning up front, I’m a ‘Noles fan. And yes, it’s been a terrible few years. For the duration of Akers time at FSU, the Seminoles were a mess from scheme to play calling to the offensive line, and just general motivation. However, Akers was one of the few bright spots of these teams. He doesn’t have the highest top end speed or the best acceleration, but he brings a combination of balanced running with explosive play ability along with a natural receiving ability. Donkey Teeth recently ranked Akers #18 overall in his top 20 dynasty running back rankings and Alfred ranked him #4 among rookie running backs in his post combine running back rankings. Here’s what I saw from Akers in my film review:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
al_FF_red

Top 15 Rookie Wide Receivers – Post Combine

March 5, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Football, 2020 NFL Draft Preview, Dynasty Strategy | 4 Comments

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In the pre-combine WR rankings I laid out the key factors I was looking for and why I ranked the players where I did. As a follow up I am now adjusting based on new information such as body mass index (BMI), speed and overall post-combine buzz coming out if Indianapolis.

There was a lot of movement within the WR rankings because so many players are very close and small details can cause big ripples. I did penalize the players who did not run at the combine because I think in a class so tight, that will matter on draft day, impacting projected draft round.

Please, blog, may I have some more?