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You know where this story goes.  It’s scary when it happens to you or your friends.  Scarier than that Johnny Depp movie ‘The Ninth Gate’.  And when I say that movie was scary, I mean it was scary bad.  I hope Depp fired his agent after that one.

Currently, I’m looking at a poo-poo platter of players that would nearly break my draft strategy or my heart if I took them where they’re at in both standard and PPR drafts at yahoo at this point.  The faint glimmer of hope would be that everyone goes big three RBs, big three QBs and Calvin Johnson which would leave me a shot at either Darren McFadden or Chris Johnson.  I wouldn’t necessarily hate this but for the fact that I want a bit of security – or at least a sense of it – from my first round pick and with CJ2K’s 2011 and DMC’s injury history, I’m not getting that warm and fuzzy feeling with them.  If those two are gone, chances are I am stuck with a quarterback such as Drew Brees.  Now obviously there is security in that pick but is there value?  In my mind, there’s not.  I feel I can find a strong quarterback stat line later in the draft.  Sure, Matt Ryan or Philip Rivers aren’t going to beat out Brees in rank by the end of the season but  I’d still have a worthwhile quarterback stat line.  Then I look and see Matt Forte.  I want to like him with my 9th pick but his injury last year coupled with low touchdown production makes it hard for me to bite and I’m a Marv Albert fan.  My final look shows Larry Fitzgerald and Jimmy Graham sitting on the second round bubble with the 12th and 11th spot, respectively.  I’m going to be honest, the pick I’m making here (drum roll please) is Graham.  Now before you start yelling at your computer in the faint hope that I’ll actually hear your anger, let me say this: I am a Brony.  Wow, I feel much better.  The truth really does set you free!  Ok, now that I have that off my chest, lets poke around at some stats.  Jimmy finished 7th in receiving yards last year, 3rd in receptions, and 5th in receiving touchdowns.  There are a lot of top ten qualities in those numbers.  My other argument for this is – unlike taking Brees – I’m actually getting a player who is considered either the top of his position or at least co-owns the crown with Rob Gronkowski.  In essence, he should be the Calvin Johnson of Tight Ends this year.  If we’re willing to take Calvin in the top five, doesn’t it make sense to take someone else who is the leader of their position in the top 10?  I think there’s a good argument for it and I hope I provided it.  But enough about me, let’s talk about you.  You’re on the clock and you have the 9th pick.  Who are you taking at the near turn towards the second round?

From Around The Web

  1. Ben says:
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    If you’re picking 9th and you even get to choose between Brees and Chris Johnson, you’re in a bad league. Just by eliminating the popular top 8 picks you should only have a reasonable shot at one of the 2. Fitz is an absolute waste of a pick there, so he’s automatically out. If Brees and CJ are both gone, my pick is Graham. I’d think about Forte in a PPR.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      The point of this wasn’t that I had a choice between CJ or Brees. I said maybe I’m left with one of the two between CJ/DMC. Then switched to possibly having a shot a Drew Brees. Besides that, I hear ya about Forte in a PPR.

  2. Jimmy Graham at top of second round no question. I’m totally sold on him. I was praying for him but ended up with Gronk two picks later. ALso CJ no doubt at 9 if he there. McFadden due for monster year obviously if he stay healthy but i’d go johnson. Can’t go wrong with brees obviously either so i guess im contradicting myself haha. but subtract Fitz and forte

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      That ninth pick is a sticky wicket this year.

  3. Rob says:
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    Same Pick, 12 team 2 QB league? 2nd pick of draft is Rodgers then Brees?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      In a two QB league and if the QBs are flying of the shelf, I’d think it’s Rodgers/Brady/Brees/Newton/Cam. Whether the last two go in the first round depends on how your leaguemates view them but that would be the order in my mind.

      • VinWins

        VinWins says:
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        @Sky, I think it should be Cam and then Newton.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Ha! Well I know which way you’re drafting in our writers league. I’ll give you the 9th spot for that reason alone! I keed.

        • Mr2Bits says:
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          @VinWins, If you take Cam before round 4 you will lose this year. While he had a great year last season, there is no way he repeats. He is way to cocky for his own good and guys in the league are going to tee off on him this year.

          • VinWins

            VinWins says:
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            @Mr2Bits, I lose every year, so that’s ok. I was just making a joke, since his list put Newton 4th and Cam 5th.

          • VinWins

            VinWins says:
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            @Mr2Bits, Also, since 9 out of 10 lose (in a 10-team league) not a bad prediction to make.

  4. Scott says:
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    You lost me after saying ninth gate was a bad movie…how about that demonic sex scene?

    And I like Chris Johnson more than you do…he’s a bit of a gamble, but I’ll think he’ll be great, averaging lots of touches/game. If you wait on graham, you could grab Aaron Hernandez, though somewhat overshadowed by gronk, who will be a beast.

    I have a quick unrelated question – ur rank of the Seahawks D/ST was incredibly high compared to some “other” rankings Ive seen…any clarification re: the discrepancy?

    Thanks and keep up all the good work!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Thanks for the kind words!

      Even bad movies have good scenes. I call it the ‘Sparky Polastri’ theory.

      Yeah, this was just an exercise to see how people viewed the late part of the first round. I did start off with how it would break my strategy or heart depending on who I got.

      Seattle was the fifth best defensive fantasy team last year. They still play in an inept offensive division with two games apiece vs STL and AZ and SF isn’t exactly an offensive force. I’m surprised they’re being put so low, honestly.

  5. Carl Weathers says:
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    Had 9th in my RCL league draft. Brees was gone, took Brady.

    Foster / Rice / McCoy / Rodgers / Calvin / CJ2K / DMC / Brees went before me.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Wow, kinda shocked Brees went and Brady didn’t. I assume the top 3 will be gone within the first 8 picks and I also assume people would take Brady before the took Brees.

      • Rob says:
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        @Sky, Based upon strength if schedule it says Brady is 30th hardest schedule where breed has second easiest schedule for qb’s. That’s why I’m thinking breed over Brady with my second pick assuming Rodgers goes first. Thoughts?

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          I don’t follow strength of schedule. Too hard to predict who’ll be good or bad. Rather rely on strength of player, especially in the first round

  6. Tom says:
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    Sky,

    I actually had to deal with this situation last night with the 8th pick and I went with DMC. In all my other drafts thus far, my knowledge of the RB situations has allowed me to gain decent depth with later picks, so I thought taking the risk of DMC being a top 5 RB if he doesn’t get injured was worth it.

    Coming back around I made a possibly questionable move…taking Cam Newton. As I looked at the stats in this league (Non-PPR) I noticed how much those top 4-5 quarterbacks blew out every other position in the league and I wanted to make sure I got on that train instead of reaching later for Matt Ryan or losing him because I didnt reach soon enough.

    I also reached a bit for Gates in round 4 because I didnt think he or hernandez would make it back to me and I wanted to ensure I got one of what I will expect to be the top 4 TE’s – (graham, gronk, gates, hernandez)

    Here is how my team turned out.

    QB – Cam Newton (2)
    WR – Percy Harvin (5)
    WR – Desean Jackson (6)
    RB – McFadden (1)
    RB – Doug Martin (3)
    TE – Antonio Gates (4)
    FLEX – Pierre Garcon (7)
    DEF – New England (13)
    K –
    BN – Peyton Hillis (8)
    BN – Cedric Benson (9)
    BN – Justin Blackmon (10)
    BN – Alfred Morris (11)
    BN – Jared Cook (12)
    BN – Blount (Probably will drop for kicker) (14)
    BN Lavon Brazill (15)

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Should be a solid team in a non-PPR setting. I’m not huge on Gates because of injury history but understand the pick. You have great RB depth. Minor quibble would be drafting a bench TE. Don’t see a need for that. Would rather spend it on RB or WR depth. Nice work, though.

  7. Mr2Bits says:
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    Definitely a no-go for me taking a TE in round 1. You do that and you might go after a kicker in round 2 :). I have found it best at least in my PPR/Flex league to get as many top RB’s as you can. I can always find a 10 point days from a WR2 but RB1’s are tough to come by and more importantly tough to hold on to throughout the season.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Oh I can’t argue with you, I was simply taking a look at what that 9th spot can provide and a possible approach. Feels like most approaches to it have their warts so I thought I’d bring it up.

      • Mr2Bits says:
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        @Sky, I know, just busting your chops. I am just a sucker for a stable of running backs. They always are good to have and always gain the most leverage later in the season for trade chips.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Yeah, as I’m sure you’ve seen I’m with you on the approach. My only issue is how much risk one is willing to take on and when it’s best to take that risk.

  8. ETMcgee says:
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    I had the 6th spot in a 12 team draft with deeper rosters, and was in that uncomfortable area all draft long. Maybe it was my lack of preparation, but I could not seem to get on track at any point in the draft (i think being 6th of 12 is the worst spot possible) and kept having all my targets get taken out in the 2-3 picks before me, so I ended up grabbing guys I wasn’t really interested in.

    I went with Brees at #6 (over CJ2k and brady) with hopes that i could land some decent RBs with my next 2 picks (scoring benefits QBs and brees seemed safe bet). Instead I ended up with Trent richardson (it is a keeper league, so maybe that will eventually pan out) in the 2nd round and wanted fred jackson in the 3rd. Of course freddy was taken with the pick right before me, so I ended up with Vic Cruz. Within the first 3 rounds, I broke my strategy of not drafting rookie rbs early (burned by matthews a couple years ago) or players coming off a career year (cruz). The rest of the draft didn’t go any better.

    I believe it is a bad thing to be in a rebuilding year before the 1st game of the 1st year of a keeper league…

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Yeah, hate to not get the guys you love. It makes you feel uncomfortable about your team. You didn’t make bad picks, the first round is pretty sticky this year and hard to stay with a particular strategy because of the level of risk with the mid to late picks. Don’t give up hope. Too early for that.

  9. Rags says:
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    Unrelated: You guys doing any of the fanduel freerolls again this year? They were fun.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      We’ll have to see. FanDuel usually gears that up with us.

  10. Crystal Ball says:
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    12 team non ppr (All TDs 8 pts)- who do you like at #6? Brees, CJ2K or Megatraon?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      TDs are 8 points? That’s nuts. I’d probably go Brees

  11. Hot Sauce says:
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    I think in the NFL’s current state, “injury prone” should be considered nothing more than a tie breaker when stuck between 2 or 3 options. I suppose McFadden and Vick might differ from the norm, but overall if you think McFadden is in for a monster year with his per game production, no one can fault you for rolling the dice with that logic. That being said, I really feel like either McFadden or Chris Johnson is available at #9 in every draft, so taking whichever one falls to you is definitely a great choice. Johnson had a terrible 2011, but I am willing to attribute that to off-field issues. He was a consensus top 2 overall pick before those troubles. I would argue there is just as much upside with him as there is to McFadden.

    In my opinion, the #8 slot is the hardest to draft from in terms of first round selections. Best case scenario is choosing between McFadden and Johnson at #8 (tough call there, but I’d go Johnson). What would scare me is having to choose between Brees/Brady or Johnson/McFadden if someone in the middle went RB over QB. I have no idea what I’d do there, as I am with you Sky in not seeing the value of a 1st round QB (if it’s not Rodgers, at least), but you can’t argue those QB’s are safe and there is a little risk with CJ2K and Run DMC.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Yeah, 8th on is a mystery wrapped in an enigma for first round picks. None of them really feel like a first round pick is the problem.

  12. Mikey says:
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    Call me crazy, but does DeMarco Murray come into the DMC/CJ2K discussion? Smaller body of work, injury history sure, but with how the Cowboys passing attack looks right now, he might have the situation and tools to make the jump.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Yeah, it’s possible. Was simply looking at the closest people in the cue to that draft spot when I was evaluating. It’s an ugly turn at the end of the first round.

  13. Mike Jones says:
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    Just curious how the rest of your team rounded out?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Sorry I wasn’t clear. This was a post strictly about late round picks. I was trying to be cute with my title, it wasn’t from a particular draft. But in my fake draft, I probably got Lynch in the second round.

  14. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    sky, some trade advice

    i’m in a 12 tm ppr where TE’s get 1ppr and RB/WR get .5 PPR. My team is nasty sick, besides jared cook being my starting TE.

    i have been getting offers for Ahmad Bradshaw (who is my RB3 behind DMC and Jamaal Charles).

    I was offered:
    Aaron Hernandez and Michael Bush for Ahmad and Jared Cook

    OR

    Jason Witten and Reggie Bush for Ahmad and Jared Cook

    i don’t think the Aaron hernandez trade is for me, but i’m thinking about the witten trade.

    was also thinking about targeting Antonio Gates.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Don’t mind either trade, but the witten one for receptions should be good. I’d go with that. Not a huge Gates fan.

  15. Mike says:
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    Would u trade rashad Jennings for either beanie wells(I have Ryan Williams) or helu?
    Looking to trade him before mjd comes back
    Thanks!

  16. Prezii says:
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    Rudy!!! You da man!

    @Sky, Who is your pick for overall production with denvers wideouts?
    Decker or thomas?

    Also, whats your thoughts on pierre garcon? What round you think is a solid spot to get him?

    • Prezii says:
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      Shit wrong post….

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      It was the right one for my part!

      If I’m picking one, it’s Decker.

      I like Garcon. See him as a solid WR3. Willing to take him in the 7th but he’ll probably go later.

  17. B.o.B says:
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    So I have the 8 spot in a 10 team league, no keepers. Scoring is 50 yds for passing, 6 pts for a passing TD; 20 yds for rushing, 15 yds for receiving. The bad news for me is I traded away my 4th round pick for this draft, during last season to make a playoff push for *cough* Michael *cough* Vick *cough*…it didn’t work out…

    So my question is what strategy would you use if you were in my shoes?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      20 yards for one point of rushing the ball? Evil! 8th spot most likely means the top 3 QBs will be gone. Honestly, I’d hate to do it but I probably would go after Stafford/Graham for the first two rounds…ugh, your scoring system is just mean! RBs take a hit with that 20 yard scoring.

      • B.o.B says:
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        @Sky, Yeah tell me about it, it’s brutal! So you would recommend taking the best available QB at 8 (yes, slim Brees or Brady will be there but anything can happen!) and then Graham at 13? That obviously would leave both RB and WR empty till my pick 28 in the 3rd and then my next pick is in the 5th at 48.

        FMFFL!

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          To be honest, you want a top end RB to score net you 5 points for 100 yards. Ain’t that tempting considering it’s half the normal scoring rate. Since it’s non-PPR (I’m assuming this based on what you’ve told me), I’m suggesting Graham because WR is pretty deep. I’d chase an RB/WR in the next two rounds and then another RB/WR pairing with the next. Your scoring made me suggest it, I wouldn’t really like it but I’d do it.

          • B.o.B says:
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            @Sky, Cool, thank you very much for your input!

  18. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    I have Britt, but Moore, M. Williams,L. Robinson, Boldin, T. Young, moss, and Holmes are available. Its a 8 team PPR, should I hold on Britt?

    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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      @Jack Full of Hate, thats santana moss

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Yep, Britt has the highest upside

  19. Chris says:
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    Just wanted to see what you thought of the starting line up I drafted. 12 team league.

    Cam Newton
    Chris Johnson
    Doug Martin
    Victor Cruz
    Jordy Nelson
    Miles Austin
    Jermaine Gresham
    Baltimore D

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      No bench or kicker? Non-PPR? Cruz/Nelson/Austin are a nice 1/2/3 combo and your running backs look good considering you had to take Newton high. Gresham is a surprise given that it’s only 12 team – would assume someone else would’ve been available – but I like him. He has upside this season. All and all, a solid competitive looking team.

  20. Tony Brown says:
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    Had pick number 9 in a 12 team snake draft 0.5 ppr, 4pt QB pass td…

    #9 – McFadden, Darren
    #16 – Murray, DeMarco
    #33 – Nicks, Hakeem
    #40 – Vick, Michael
    #57 – Gates, Antonio
    #64 – Austin, Miles
    #81 – Greene, Shonn
    #88 – Britt, Kenny
    #105 – Stewart, Jonathan
    #112 – Cutler, Jay
    #129 – Rice, Sidney
    #136 – Mendenhall, Rashard
    #153 – Eagles D/ST
    #160 – Turbin, Robert
    #177 – Smith, Steve (STL)
    #184 – Prater, Matt

    what do ya’ll think?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      You went high risk/high upside from Nicks to Austin and then followed it up with a little more with Britt. Your team could be awesome or you could miss the playoffs based on injury history. It’s hard not to like your team but that’s probably it’s only rub.

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